The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

ACA Enrollment Pace Is Up! (UPDATE 12.25 - 12/31 Enrollments)


GOP members of Congress, surrogates and pundits are conspicuously silent about the ACA. Of course, we continue to hear dire predictions about "ObamaCare" from Right-wing Media (Fox News et al) and on occasion for the more zany in the party (Palin, etc), yet the party has moved on to other issues. Paul Ryan intimated a few weeks back the GOP would wreck the US economy over issues related to the debt ceiling.


The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will one day settle into US History with full accolades to President Obama and the Democratic Party. The ACA website, after weeks of emergency development, is reported to have reached full functionality. The White House is expressing confidence about site utility and performance; we remain cautious as any website is susceptible to malfunction and, frankly, susceptible to Right-wing terrorist attacks against health care reform. 


Malfunctions or website terrorist attacks aside, enrollment has spiked during the month of December. ACA website rework was accomplished around November 30th. Increased opportunity for enrollment via the website has led to ACA watchers suggesting the December deadline for January 1, coverage and anticipated interest from the under insured or non-insured are contributing to the enrollment spike. We would be serious remiss if we did not acknowledge another indicator of increased enrollment numbers.



Let's that a look at ACA enrollment data from a person who uses the pseudonym of Brainwrap. We will admit the developers brain has to be wrapped around an affinity for data and charts; his work is without equal. Even the very "chart-geek" Ezra Klein has linked to Brainwrap's spreadsheet and charts.

(NOTE: We realize the following require a bit of concentration and a willingness grasp a non media view of the ACA experience. You can watch CNN and Fox with their daily "disappointment" updates, or you can help spread the word for the good of the national. In order to spread the word, we have to invest a bit of time and effort as high information people.)

ACA Pivate Enrollments Pass 228,000; over 950,000 with Medicaid/SCHIP

by  on NOVEMBER 26, 2013 in OBAMACARE
(Brainwrap's spreadsheet linked)



Since the day that the ACA (aka Obamacare) health insurance exchanges launched on October 1st, I’ve been tracking the number of applications, enrollments and Medicaid/SCHIP expansion signups at ACASignups.net. Obviously the first few weeks were, shall we say, rocky. In addition to the now infamous website problems, reporting on the numbers was all over the map as well, with many “serious” journalists confusing “accounts created” with “applications started”, “applications completed”, “plans selected” and so on. 

In addition, many sources confused private exchange enrollments with Medicaid/SCHIP expansion enrollments. Both numbers are important, of course, because each represents people who either didn’t have any healthcare coverage before at all or had crappy coverage (in a few cases, such as myself, they have a decent plan but one which needs a few tweaks to be compliant with the law). 

In any event, just as the Healthcare.Gov website has been majorly modified and improved, so too has ACASignups.net (aka ObamacareSignups.net, if you’d prefer). All numbers since the first official HHS report was released (which gave the true numbers through 11/2/13) are fully sourced are now separated out by actual private exchange enrollments and Medicaid/SCHIP enrollments for the individual states. 

In addition, I’ve added graphical charts showing both the ACA Private Exchange enrollments as well as a comparison against the Massachusetts enrollment pattern of 2007.
.........here’s the latest figures as of Monday, Nov. 25:
Total Exchange ENROLLMENTS: 228,578
Total Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 728,210
Total Combined: 956,788
aca_chart
aca_chart_mass









Obamacare Friday Update: 430K 

Private Enrollments; 1.6 Million 

Medicaid/SCHIP

A couple of weeks ago I posted a detailed analysis of how Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) enrollments are going so far. Starting today, every Friday I’ll be posting updated numbers here at Eclectablog. Full details can be viewed daily at ACASignups.net.
Roughly 27,000 Americans signed up for insurance on the federal exchange on Tuesday, according to internal figures, bringing the site’s three-day enrollment total to 56,000. That figure is more than double the number who enrolled online in the entire month of October, which was almost 27,000.
Needless to say, I’ve been scrambling to bring the ACASignups.net spreadsheet up to speed this morning:
Read more via title above 




Obamacare Friday Update: 680K Private, 2.5M Total & Rising FAST

A couple of weeks ago I posted a detailed analysis of how Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) enrollments are going so far. Starting today, every Friday I’ll be posting updated numbers here at Eclectablog. Full details can be viewed daily at ACASignups.net.
In a comment from a Mother Jones article about Obamacare enrollments, I received the highest praise I could ever hope for:
“During the ’12 election, I compulsively consulted 538.com…Now I compulsively consult acasignups.net.”
I’m honored beyond words.
I’m also extremely happy to report that thanks to California finally updating their official numbers (partly spoiled by yesterday’s November HHS Report), the official ACASignups.net tally has shattered through the 600K mark, and now stands at:
Private Plan Enrollments: 679,743

Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 1,829,180

Total: 2,508,923 
Meanwhile, check out the trend/projection line, which has jumped from around 3.7 million up to around 4.2 million by 3/31/14.
 This is both bad and good. The bad news is that the CBO projection for the end of the enrollment period–which was never declared a “requirement for success” by the HHS Dept. but which has, nonetheless, become etched in stone to the media and public at large as being a “must achieve” figure–is 7 million private plan enrollments, leaving the ACA exchanges 2.8 million short at this point.
Read more via title above 

ACA Enrollments through 12/10/13

Obamacare Signups Friday: 970K (or 1.3M) private enrollments; 3.3M Total

Every Friday I posting the latest enrollment figures for the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) here at Eclectablog. Full details can be viewed daily at ACASignups.net. 
This has been the craziest week yet for ACASignups.net, and the past day or so, things went into overdrive. 
If November had an Obamacare surge, consider this the December deluge. California averaged 15,000 daily enrollments early last week, about double the sign-ups the state had in early December. New York is now seeing about 4,500 residents choosing plans each day and, in Connecticut, the number is hovering around 1,400.
Read more via title above 




December 26, 2013......(Spreadsheet)
Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) Signups/Applications (w/Medicaid Expansion)

by Brainwrap   •   If you're having trouble viewing, try this link instead
IMPORTANT: Data prior to the 11/13/13 HHS Dept. report includes Applications; data after that only includes actual enrollments.


We anticipate official enrollment number from the White House in early January. Most writers and reporters indicated the pace of enrollment, if not stepped-up, will fall shy of the artificially set Seven million enrolled by March 31, 2014. 

The Congressional Budget Office prediction of seven million enrollees by march 31, is important, and may be elusive. Health and Human Services have moved attention to the demographic mix of enrollees vs. 'raw numbers' of enrollees.

CBS News
Excerpt
In mid-December, a Health and Human Services Official insisted the agency is "on track" to meet its 7 million enrollment goal and expects most people to sign up at the end of the open enrollment period. At the same time, the administration has shifted the focus from the raw enrollment figures to the demographic makeup of the marketplace. 
"What we need is the right mix of individuals in these individual exchanges," White House deputy press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters in mid-December. "My point is, you can't evaluate the success or failure of the Affordable Care Act based solely on the number of people who sign up all across the country. What you should do to evaluate the success of the program is to consider the mix of people who have signed up in each of the individual marketplaces." 
So far, the administration hasn't released any demographic information about Obamacare enrollees. 
The correct "mix" includes a sufficient portion of younger, healthier people -- a portion equal to their representation in the overall pool of potential individual market enrollees. That would mean about 40 percent of the market should be younger, healthier enrollees; in a market of 7 million, that's 2.8 million. 
The concern has been that if only older, sicker people join Obamacare, the costs of covering that market would leader to higher premiums. That would, in turn, prompt even more healthy people to leave the market, leading to the dreaded "death spiral." The death spiral is unlikely to happen in large part because of mechanisms built into the Affordable Care Act to prevent that. In fact, even if far fewer young, healthy people sign up than expected, the impact on the Obamacare markets would be relatively minimal, some argue.
All said, we are certain the Administration will be nothing shy of ecstatic if enrollments continue any where near the December pace.


Over the next few weeks, we will be watching Brainwrap's developer as surely as night turns to day.
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UPDATE: 12/25/2013 - 12/31/2013 Partial Data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...



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