The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

GOP "We Know..." (GOP We Do Not Believe You Know)

As news continues to show positive for the US economy, the GOP is scraping for items to political strategy. It seems all that is left is ane improving ACA website, and even that is a fading oasis. The website is factually improved (front-end) and we are seeing larger numbers of site hits, log-ins and there are reports of moderate number of registrants.

Yet, the party on the Right cannot let go of their last and trailing political crusade.  Over the past few days, the following (table below) has driveled from the mouths of GOP representatives. Moreover, the comments were spoken by GOP leadership in the House. You will also notice the drivel is straight from the pages of the House Republican Playbook. PLAYBOOK (pdf)!


GOP Mantra to start the week, as news came forth of an ACA website that showed improved functionality. 

"Millions of Americans being informed that the health care plans they liked are being canceled - despite the President's repeated assurances otherwise - and being forced to pay higher premiums, deductibles, or both, are a much greater priority than a broken website," the Cantor aide told CNN. 
House Speaker John Boehner's office gave a similar statement to CNN Sunday. 

"This isn't just about a broken website, it's about a fundamentally-flawed law," wrote Boehner spokesman Michael Steel. 

"Website is least of Obamacare's problems," echoed Senate Republican Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, on Twitter. 

"You never get a second chance to make a first impression, and the first impression here was terrible," Rep. Tom Cole, R-Oklahoma, said on ABC's “This Week.” "And I think it's going to be an unfolding disaster for the president."
Why does a major US political party and 113th GOP Congress need a playbook? During the GOP shutdown, I heard Boehner exclaim, "this is not a game..."

http://youtu.be/_FHMiPE-zuI



Well, Speaker Boehner is following a playbook. Playbooks are usually a tool for teams as they perpetrate execution of games." It is hard to convince high information voters (people) you are not playing games. When you speak directly from a playbook about a law that is critical to the well being of 48 million US citizens and you shutdown the US government to the level of $24 Billion against GDP.


Maybe we are being hard on the GOP. Lets face facts, they are working with diminishing political leverage. They cannot rail about the economy.

November Automobile sales

International Business Times excerpt via "fair use" principle.

Annual Thanksgiving holiday weekend sales events, coupled with the recent robust rebound in the U.S. auto marketplace, should have added up to a windfall for the nation’s auto dealers last month.
The world’s eight top auto manufacturers are releasing their November U.S. new-car and light-truck sales figures on Tuesday. Auto-industry analysts forecast total monthly sales to arrive at about 1.19 million vehicles, up between 4 percent and 5 percent from the 1.14 million deliveries in November 2012. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate, the key monthly metric that gauges the health of the industry and consumer sentiment, is expected to be around 15.9 million units, up from 15.5 million in the same month last year.

Gross Domestic Product


Revised numbers for 2013 3rd Quarter moved up from 2.8% to 3.6%. While I read the primary reason for the adjustment is expanded inventory, I located a graphic that shed additional light on the adjusted rate of growth.



Contributions to gdp growth

The graph legend and depiction of 2013 Q3 indicates factors beyond increased levels of inventory. Maybe, business writers assume factoring for excellent market growth during the quarter. and, it appears 'consumption is also up. While I am no economist (thank the heavens) that seems to mean people are spending. Increased spending leads to increased production and that, in-turn, leads to jobs. And, as jobs come about the cycle repeats towards an improved US economy. 

Employment (http://www.floatingpath.com)



The data is as it is, with no thanks to an obstructionist GOP. Imagine the data with a bit of cooperation towards improving the US economy?

ADP Private Sector Jobs Added November 2013
ADP Shows 215k Private Payrolls Added In November 
ADP reports that U.S. nonfarm private sector employment increased by 215k in the month of November. This follows revised increases of 184k in October and 185k in September. This was the highest month in 2013. 
This suggests a positive reading in the nonfarm payrolls number to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday in its employment situation report.
ADP Employment 600x375 ADP Shows 215k Private Payrolls Added In November

Industry 600x326 ADP Shows 215k Private Payrolls Added In November
We can only assume all of the lower skill and low wage jobs being added to our ailing economy are in the Professional/Business Services category.

Motor Vehicle Sales Revisited via FloatingPath
Light Vehicle Sales Increase To SAAR Of 16.41 Million
Autodata reports in its preliminary reading for the month of November that light weight motor vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.41 million. This is an increase from the final October reading of SAAR 15.15 million as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and is the fastest rate of sales since February 2007.
The November sales rate is up 6.0% from the same period last year.
Vehicle Sales Short 600x375 Light Vehicle Sales Increase To SAAR Of 16.41 Million

Trade
U.S. Monthly Trade Deficit Decreases To $40.6 Billion
The international trade deficit during the month of October was $40.6 billion, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. This is a decrease from September’s revised reading of a $43.0 billion deficit. 
Exports for the month totaled $192.7 billion, an increase from September’s revised reading of $189.3 billion. 
Imports for the month totaled $233.3 billion, up from September’s revised reading of $232.3 billion.
Trade Deficit

Trade 600x375 U.S. Monthly Trade Deficit Decreases To $40.6 Billion

Retail Sales

Store Sales Reports Suggest Black Friday Was Strong

Both U.S. weekly store sales indexes increased significantly for the week ending November 30. ICSC-Goldman stated a less optimistic outlook despite the positive sales figures, but Redbook has called this year’s Black Friday a success. Redbook did add however that shoppers seem to be holding back on big ticket items. 
The ICSC-Goldman store sales index was up 2.5% from the same week last year, compared to up only 2.1% Y/Y the week prior. 
The Redbook store sales index was up 4.9% from the same week last year, compared to up only 3.8% Y/Y the week prior
Store Sales 600x384 Store Sales Reports Suggest Black Friday Was Strong

We will end our exhibition, via Business Insider and FloatingPath, at this point. But, only after reporting through October manufacturing as down slightly.

We remind the GOP was not supportive of the Obama Administration Stimulus. In fact, the GOP shaved the Stimulus request from $1.2 trillion to $747-800 Billion (depending on who you read).  Another area of recall is the wanton disregard for Obama Administration request for Auto Industry loans. If you look above you will see evidence of the lack of wisdom from the party on the Right.  

It is easy to see why the GOP is focusing on political leverage via the very flawed ACA rollout. Problem is...like everything GOP they grab for straws and quickly sink to the depths of despair. How many pundits and Left leaning media personalities warned above the prospect of an improved ACA enrollment tool?   

Despite the extent to which Fox News secures interviews with people who are missing various degrees of ethics, honesty and scruples, the ACA is moving forward. And, the economy is improving.

As we reflect on our opening above, it is impossible to avoid echoing Eric Cantors early week refrain, "We know...."  Well, we have to ask, "Why would anyone place faith in what the GOP knows and says?"

And, they also are talking about "impeachment."

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