The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

The November Jobs Numbers/Unemployment Rate And The Ever-present "Poop-Poop" Specailist

private sector job growth
White House Dot Gov (Linked Comments)

The November Jobs Report was released this morning and life has not been the same since. The numbers are great even when overshadowed by the death of Nelson Mandela.

Why the excitement? We continue to see evidence of an improving economy.

BLS Highlights

Unemployment rate at a five year low, companies are hiring part-time work has not been affected by the ACA, and manufacturing ticked up a bit.

The nation and the job market has recovered from the GOP Federal Government shutdown.

The GOP prediction of part-time work as a strategy against the ACA was, during November, unfounded.

Factory over-time edged-up. We must not forget Eric Cantor's proposal to eliminate Over-time pay for hourly employees. His proposal seems awful corporatist and a welcome proposal for people like the industrialist Kochs.  


Household Survey Data 
I. The unemployment rate declined from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent in November:
The unemployment rates for...
Adult men (6.7 percent), 
Adult women (6.2 percent), 
Teenagers (20.8 percent), 
Whites (6.2 percent),
Blacks (12.5 percent), 
Hispanics (8.7 percent) little change
Asians was 5.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little change.
II. Private Sector employers  (nonfarm payroll employment) added 203,000 jobs.
III. The number of unemployed persons declined to 10.9 
IV. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 
718,000 over the past 12 months.
V. The civilian labor force rose by 455,000 in November, after declining by 720,000 in 
The labor force participation rate changed little (63.0 percent) in November. 
Total employment as measured by the household survey increased by 818,000 over the month, following a decline of 735,000 in the prior month.
This over-the-month increase in employment partly reflected the return to work  of furloughed federal government employees. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.3 percentage point to 58.6 percent in November, reversing a decline of the same size in the prior month.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 331,000 to 7.7 million in November. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

Establishment Survey Data  
Employment increased in: 

Transportation and warehousing - Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 31,000 in November, with gains in couriers and messengers (+9,000), truck transportation (+8,000), warehousing and storage (+5,000), and air transportation (+3,000). 
Health care - Health care employment continued to increase over the month (+28,000). Job gains occurred in home healthcare services (+12,000) and offices of physicians (+7,000), while nursing care facilities lost jobs (-4,000). Job growth in health care has averaged 19,000 per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 27,000 in 2012. 
Manufacturing - manufacturing added 27,000 jobs. Within the industry, job gains occurred in food manufacturing (+8,000) and in motor vehicles and parts (+7,000). 
Professional and business services - continued to trend up (+35,000). Over the prior 12 months, the industry added an average of 55,000 jobs per month. 
Retail trade
 - continued to expand in November (+22,000). Within the industry, job growth occurred in general merchandise stores (+14,000); in sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (+12,000); and in automobile dealers (+7,000). Over the prior 12 months, job growth in retail trade averaged 31,000 per month. 
Leisure and hospitality - employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in November (+18,000). Job growth in this industry averaged 28,000 per month over the prior 12 months.  
Construction - continued to trend up in November (+17,000). Monthly job gains in the industry averaged 15,000 over the prior 12 months. Federal government employment continued to decline (-7,000) in November. Over the past 12 months, federal government employment has decreased by 92,000. 
Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, wholesale trade, information, and financial activities, showed little or no change in November.   
The Work Week 

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up   by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in November.
The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 41.0 hours, and factory   overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.5 hours.
The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours.

Now, when we contrast the jobs report with writers we call  "poop-poop" specialist an amazing phenomenon manifest. We reference the extent to which poop-poop' specialist take  to media to down play 'moderate to good' jobs reports. One of the major criteria they use to down play the good news are previous"recoveries." While they are professional "poop-poop"  specialist and despite of lack of economist on staff, their analysis seems to fail in one area: slow economic growth. An area they know is reality well before the first Friday report. They know (In the current recovery) any jobs report will show slow growth compared to time periods they chose to facilitate  their "poop-poop" point. They compare improvement from the Bush economic crash to recoveries since WWII

The Bush Great Recession was one or two steps too close to a Great Depression abyss. The "poop-poop" specialist avoid  comparing against a greater hit to the US economy: The 1929 Depression. Prior to Bush W., the nation hadn't suffered an  economic turn-down equivalent to the Depression. Bush and his administration's incompetence and malfeasance came  damned close. Yet, the "poop-poop" specialist dare not  compare to the 1929 - 1939 Depression.

Huffington Post writer, Mark Gongloff , unabashedly screeds a piece in which his uses the following graph. make this the slowest job-market recovery since World War II, as this chart from Bill McBride of the Calculated Risk blog shows:


In fairness to Gongloff and the Bill McBride of the Calculated Risk blog they provide additional information to support their points linked here. Additionally, neither writer is taking an anti-administration position. Nonetheless, their points seem somewhat flawed in comparing the Bush Great Recession (Obama recovery) to any recession after the mid-1920s; the recession that preceded the 1929 Depression. 

We do not feel the writers are comparing apple to apples. The Minneapolis Federal Reserve previously published a report  that supports our posit.

The following graphics are interactive via this link. We copied and posted non-interactive copies for those who will not follow the link above. As stated, we might have fallen victim to  misinterpretation of the Minneapolis Fed data, but it appears  the Bush recession dug a much deeper economic chasm than any recession after WW II.

If you do not wish to go high information, avoid the following  charts via reading the "Depths of Recessions" paragraph  below. 

Background on Recession/Recovery in Perspective
This page places the current economic downturn and recovery into historical (post-WWII) perspective. It compares output and employment changes from the 2007-2009 recession and subsequent recovery with the same data for the 10 previous recessions and recoveries that have occurred since 1946. 
This page provides a current assessment of 'how bad' the 2007-2009 recession was relative to past recessions, and of how quickly the economy  is recovering relative to past recoveries. It will continue to be up-dated as new data are released.This page does not provide forecasts,and  the information should not be interpreted as such. The charts provide information about the length and depth of re-cessions, and  the robustness of recoveries.
Post-WWII Recessions
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research determines the beginning and ending dates of U.S. recessions. 
It has determined that the U.S. economy experienced 10 recessions from 1946  through 2006. The committee determined that the 2007-2009 recession began in December 2007 and ended in June of 2009. Ending dates are typically announc-ed several months after the recession officially ends. Read the June 2009 trough announcement by the NBER.  
Length of Recessions
The 10 previous postwar recessions ranged in length from 6 months to 16 months, averaging about 10 1/2 months. The 2007-09 recession was the longest re- cession in the postwar period, at 18 months.
Depth of Recessions
The severity of a recession is determined in part by its length; perhaps even more important is the magnitude of the decline in economic activity. The 2007-09 recession was the deepest recession in the postwar period; at their lowest points employment fell by 6.3 percent and output fell by 5.1 percent.

The Recession and Recovery in Perspective

The 2007-2009 recession officially ended in June of 2009 (the second quarter). How bad was this recession, and how quickly is the economy recovering? How does this recession and recovery compare to previous cycles?
Compare Recessions & Recoveries

Length of Recessions Change in Employment Through 36 Months
Depth of Recession
We understand news. The business of news and reporting is  inherently negative. Good news last only as long as the broadcast segment or the quick read. In order to garner extended attention writers and broadcasters focus on the negative.

Yet, comparisons against common recoveries vs. the Bush  Recovery is comparable to failing to recognize the difference between a Pilot whale and the Blue Whale. Since, we know  these are competent writers, we seriously wonder why the  simple Pilot Whale comparisons.

Jack Welch, former GE CEO and obvious conservative,   simple spazed-out about "cooked job numbers" once  unemployment dropped below eight (8) per cent. Writers like Gongloff are probably far less conservative than Jack Welch  and they are certainly more sophisticated in their 'nay-saying, but the net-net effect is similar: they simply "poop-poop" each first Friday of the month (e.g., Job Numbers day). It is almost as if they have their articles written well before the actual  unemployment job creation numbers are released. Once releasedthe "poop-poop" specialist seem to simply plug in the  unemployment rate/job numbers and push the publish button. 

We realize Huffington Post would be the last entity to practice Obama Derangement. From another perspective we, as  novices, would appreciate a bit apples to apples comparisons,if there needs to be a comparison et al.

Basically and much more colloquially, if you bury me 10 feet  under the earth and bury you five feet under, it will certainly  take more time to extricate myself and I will dig-out at a much slower rate.

Additional Resource:
Five Key Points from Jason Furman

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