The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

US Economy 2013: A Story Of Considerable Progress



We at the TPI visit the US economy throughout the calendar year.  Our reviews are often accomplished quarterly will major  or review at year end. We are creatures of habit and have compiled a number of common economic indicators for 2013. While some readers have contempt for charts and graphs there really are not better method to deliver messages quickly and efficiently. High information people find ways to deal with the possible assimilation of data, especially when all major media are chasing revenues and failing to adequately report hard fought progress of the Obama Administration.

The year was a year of steady and moderating economic improvements. An improving US economy is a comprehensive indicator of a healthy nation. The Obama Administration from day one in 2009 has worked towards a healthy economy and despite irrefutable GOP obstruction, the POTUS and his adviser are reaping results.


Before we move into common economic indicators let's level and dispense of former GOP mantra that President Obama was without an energy policy. Energy charts are source linked via a click on the chart.

Obama's immediate attention to drilling for independence



White House Dot Gov (and five years of competent policy)

_________________________

Common economic indicators


T. Rowe Price

U.S. Stocks1
Index2Friday's CloseWeek's Change% Change
Year-to-Date
DJIA16478.41257.3325.75%
S&P 5001841.4023.0429.11%
NASDAQ Composite4156.5951.8537.66%
S&P MidCap 4001336.7817.8531.00%
Russell 20001160.2113.5836.60%
_________________________

Bureau of Labor Statistics
United States - Monthly Data
Data SeriesBack
Data
June
2013
July
2013
Aug
2013
Sept
2013
Oct
2013
Nov
2013
Jump to page with historical data
7.67.47.37.27.37.0
_________________________

Misery Index


Conservative websites are showing this graphic along with snide and disparaging remarks about Keynesian Economics. Why don't they simply give it up and recognize (and acknowledge) a bit of cooperation from their politicians these figures would show moderately better. 
_________________________

US Inflation Rate
Source: tradingeconomics.com

_________________________

US markets and a 'best year' since 1997.



Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

 -DJI
16,576.66 Up 72.37(0.44%) Dec 31

Basic Chart

Chart forDow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

-DJI
Prev Close:16,504.29
Open:16,512.38
Day's Range:16,511.48 - 16,588.25
52wk Range:13,104.30 - 16,588.20
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in USD.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI


S&P 500 (^GSPC)

 -SNP
1,848.36 Up 7.29(0.40%) Dec 31

Basic Chart
Chart forS&P 500 (^GSPC)

S&P 500 (^GSPC)

cococo; font-size: 12px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.22em;">-SNP
Prev Close:1,841.07
Open:1,842.61
Day's Range:1,842.41 - 1,849.44
52wk Range:1,426.19 - 1,849.44
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in USD.



NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC)

 -Nasdaq GIDS
4,176.59 Up 22.39(0.54%) Dec 31

Chart forNASDAQ Composite (^IXIC)

NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC)

-Nasdaq GIDS
Prev Close:4,154.20
Open:4,161.51
Day's Range:4,160.77 - 4,177.73
52wk Range:3,076.60 - 4,177.73
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in USD.

_________________________
The three stock market indicators above are by far most viewed indicators of the US economy for novices like me. Such views and assumption of stock market economic health is flawed and misleading. There are other indicators that speak more appropriately to the health of an economy or lack there of.


Robert Reich, former Clinton Administration Secretary of labor, posits that bull market does not filter down to the nation's bottom 80% (ers).
But the real news here, that went completely unreported, is that the 2013 bull market widened inequality because..] 
(1) the richest 1 percent of Americans own 35 percent of the value of all shares of stock, and the richest 10 percent own over 80 percent, 
(2) the corporate profits on which these gains were based came largely from keeping the wages of ordinary workers low, 
(3) the capital gains and dividends these gains generated are taxed at a lower rate than most of the income of the middle class, and 
(4) the biggest winners are the top executives and Wall Street traders whose year-end bonuses are tied to the stock market, and the hedge-fund and private-equity managers whose “carried interest” loophole allows them to cash in big-time. 
When will we stop measuring the health of the economy by the Dow Jones Industrial average?
While I agree with the honorable University of Berkley professor, I differ while recognizing a truly "ill" economy would not see market performance as we have witnessed since Barack Obama was inaugurate to the Oval Office in January 2009.  

We have posted a few such indicators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Of course, we will start with the US Gross Domestic Products.

_________________________

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Current Numbers:
  • 3rd quarter 2013: 4.1 percent
  • 2nd quarter 2013: 2.5 percent
Next release: January 30, 2014
Quarterly data: Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Graph

Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP


National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2013 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2013 (revised estimate)  
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent. 
 _________________________

Personal Income
Current Numbers:
  • November 2013: 0.2 percent (personal income)
  • October 2013: -0.1 percent (personal income)
Next release: January 31, 2014
Monthly data: In November 2013, real disposable personal income increased 0.1 percent.

Personal Income: Real Disposable Income and Real Consumer Spending Graph

Personal Income: Real Disposable Income and Real Consumer Spending Graph




: #990000; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large; font-weight: bold;">


_________________________

Home Prices
The Business Insider
Here's a look at the trajectory of home prices since 1998:
october case shiller home prices

S&P Case-Shiller
The S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index climbed 1.05% month-over-month (MoM) in October. On a year-over-year basis, home prices were up 13.61%. 
On a non seasonally adjusted basis however home prices were up 0.2% on the month. This beat expectations for a 0.95% MoM rise and a 13.45% YoY (Year over Year) rise. This was the biggest gain since February 2006. 
Meanwhile, September home prices were modestly revised down to show a 0.98% MoM rise, and a 13.25% YoY rise. This compares with an initial reading of a 1.03% MoM rise, and a 13.29% YoY rise.


CNBC


On December 21, 2014 CNBC interviewed Robertt Shiller, co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index. 

Housing prices have been rising since early 2012, and a rebound in the sector has helped the U.S. recovery gain steam. 

Shiller posits the nation may be on the path towards another Housing Bubble.

_________________________

Industrial production 

Industrial production picks up

November industrial production rose much more than expected (+1.1% vs. +0.6%), led by a 0.6% increase in manufacturing production, which is up at a 5.1% annualized rate in the past 3 months. Industrial production has now reached a new all-time high. The contrast between the vitality of the U.S. economy and the ongoing struggles of the Eurozone economy (see top chart above) is stark, and can also be seen in the significant outperformance of the U.S. equity market (see chart below). 
We will leave our 2013 review at this point.  There are other economic indicators that show an improving economy; we feel we have covered the key indicators.      
Have you noticed even one GOP politician mention the US economy?  It appears the GOP has left the US Economy out of its political "Playbook."   
If you have read this far, you haven't left the US economy out of your thought processes.

No comments :

Post a Comment