The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Friday, July 4, 2014

Fact Check ...Obama's Numbers June 2014 Vs Polling And Media Facilitators



When we see polls of doom for President Obama, we heighten our search for information to validate the "horrific" (media mantra and driven) hysteria, or information that makes us wonder about polls and poll respondents.

Examples

One of the worst and most right leaning US polls, AP/GFK, posted poll results just before the 2012 General Elections. Media grabbed the polling authority headlines as such: "Majority harbor prejudice towards blacks." Wow......one would think African-Americans were doomed to prejudicial acts or racial animus from 51 to 99% of Americans whites, Latinos and Asians! Yet, a quick review of the AP/GfK methodology yielded a revealing set of data. Look closely at the table below and notice red arrow indicators added for quick reference.


TPI (October 2012)
If you never ever review poll data, you have to give a look at the AP/GfK Poll data released just a few days before the November 6th Elections. The poll's major tickler was, a"Majority harbor prejudice towards blacks". [See Link above]
Page 33 of the Growth for Knowledge (GfK) poll reads like this:
The TPI link provided in the table will take you to even more startling and ridiculous survey findings related to perceptions of candidate religion. The 1,071 survey respondents (predominately white and from the South) seem to have been comprised of a potential respondent pool stacked for achievement of desired results. The headline: "Majority harbor prejudice towards blacks," was both indicative of what many should consider flawed survey administration via GfK, and indicative of the dangers of subsequent headlining via media or political operatives.

A bit more regarding AP/GfK. GfK was forced in 2008. What took place that was tsunami-like in 2008?  GfK is a conservative poll, I ask again: "What took place in 2008 that could lead to facility for a conservative poll? AP/GfK uses methodology resembling that identified by the Washington Post as, in my words "suspect."                                            
I believe it necessary to provide additional perspective on a polling authority that will surely receive wide quoting from the Right and conservative pundits as we move into next week.


The inquisitive person is often rewarded for digging deeper, than simply waling away with flawed and disparaging messages from media and "polling with a purpose." 

Example Two

About two weeks ago the NBC/WSJ Poll gave media conservatives a literal goldmine of opportunity anti-Obama punditry.Yes, even on MSNBC supposed news hosts are often pundits for the Left or Right.  In the referenced case, Joe Scarborough and Chuck Todd along with fellow network conservative Andrea Mitchell used the NBC/WSJ Poll for gleeful Obama Derangement rhetoric. Bare with me a moment as I make a case about the NBC/WSJ Poll. A poll laced with disparaging remarks about the three aforementioned MSNBC conservatives.


Let's visit with the gleeful Scarborough and the even more excited Todd. We will present some interesting data after a few words that should help with my assertion of "News host punditry."

Based on the recent NBC/WSJ opinion poll, Joe Scarborough's conservative production team performed as expected. Show programmers booked Nicole Wallace, former Bush Administration Official, and Romney Campaign team official, and Dan Senor, noted Bush Iraq war (in country) propagandist and Romney campaign operative, along with "chopping at the bits with excitement", to leverage the NBC/WSJ poll approval ratings disparage the president and by extrapolation Democrats. Regardless of comment during the 2:42 minutes segment, the message was to influence your vote this fall and in 2016.

Chuck (with libido rhetoric intact) Todd. 
"...the public saying essentially your presidency is over."  



Chuck Todd as an MSNBC News director is encouraged ,and allowed, to declare a presidency "over?" Before we moving to the NBC/WSJ poll, a quick word on Todd: "....he is hardly a neutral news director."  

END TODD DIGRESSION


In early 2013, Todd snuggled-up over lunch with Ohio State Secretary Of State Jon Husted (R). The "pillow talk" was revealing. 
Jon Husted’s Tweet after the lunch: 
“Enjoyed having lunch today with NBC’s @ChuckTodd – he and I agree Redistricting Reform needs to happen in OH and across the US”.
How about a quick tweet thread related to Husted's Tweet.

aheadshouldroll

As informed Americans consider the deep impact of depriving large swaths of the public opportunity to vote, we realize the GOP and millions in conservative America are not about a free and open democracy (republic). Todd as news director at MSNBC and a network White House correspondent shamefully goes about his work with an obvious slant towards conservatism. A slant that is existentially anti-Obama, anti-Democrat, and frankly, anti-neutral regarding election fairness. 

END DIGRESSION

Now for a very benighted take on the NBC/WSJ Poll and a few thoughts on polling in general.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted between June 11 and June 15, 2014. It was conducted among 1,000 respondents with approximately on third via use of cell phone. The poll respondent group appears to have been spread among gender and ethnic groupings that reflect the US population, but (and it is a big "but") there appears to be a glaring issue. The NBC/WSJ poll was administered to demographic groups skewered towards age groups that comprise a predominate GOP voting blocs.

NBC Survey Section A pdf

Excerpt exhibit

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES 
Study #14463-- page 1

June 2014 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Date: June 11-15, 2014 

48 Male 
52 Female 

Interviews: 1000 Adults, including 300 respondents with a cell phone only and 
37 respondents reached on a cell phone but who also have a landline 

Study #14463 
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey 
Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated. 
The margin of error for 1000 interviews among Adults is ± 3.10% 
Unless otherwise noted by a “+”, all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults. 
Q2a For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? 
(IF “REFUSED,” ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST) 

18-24 .................................................................... 11 
25-29 .................................................................... 7 
30-34 .................................................................... 11 
35-39 .................................................................... 7 
40-44 .................................................................... 11 
45-49 .................................................................... 5 
50-54 .................................................................... 10 
55-59 .................................................................... 11 
60-64 .................................................................... 12 
65-69 .................................................................... 5 
70-74 .................................................................... 4 
75 and over ...........................................................6 
Not sure/refused .................................................... - 

Q2b To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic 
or Spanish-speaking background? 

Yes, Hispanic ................................................... 11 
No, not Hispanic ............................................... 88 
Not sure/refused ................................................ 1 

Q2c And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else? 

White ............................................................... 74 
Black ............................................................... 12 
Asian ................................................................ 2 
Other ................................................................ 5 
Hispanic (VOL) ..................................................6 
Not sure/refused ...............................................1 




Other than the telling respondent age demographic group of the June 11th polling, Hart Associates seems as reputable and competent at the business of polling.

The problem with the manner in which media reports pool results is in and of itself a problem. Instead of the "Majority harbor prejudice towards blacks", could have been reported as "A majority of respondents to this survey harbor prejudice towards blacks." 


Our exercise in media reporting of "Intentionally slanted" surveys was undertaken for one very specific reason. Opportunity exist for acquisition of information critical to countering misrepresentation and media compliance in shaping our political lives. Fact checking really does work and it works well.

While Politifact occasionally riles the leader of progressive media, Rachel Maddow, but the investigatory authorities have value.  Fact Check Dot Org's weekly updates includes a graphic depiction of President Obama's numbers. 

We have inserted an excerpt from the Fact Check piece based on the length and detail in the piece. As you consider reading further, consider what you have read up to this point and realize public opinion cannot help, but fall to the level of "jaded" (lower approval ratings) if we are bombarded with politically expedient information at the level shoved upon us via conservative America.




Obama’s Numbers (July 2014 Update)

Jobs, Profits, Guns & Health Insurance: 

Our Regular Update of the Statistical Record


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