The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Sunday Afternoon Look At The US Economy


A Sunday afternoon look at why the GOP will not allow the words US economy to cross their lips. It was amazing to watch the craft and skill deployed by the GOP keeping the media and US voters from consideration of how the US economy has improved and continues to improve.  

Even more amazing, the extent to which people rely on media for guidance when data exists related to an improving economy. We grant digging for information and reading with associated assimilation of information is far more time consuming (and laborious) than watching Fox News or CNN. We grant the effort involved in seeking accurate information, but we also find if contemptible, so many simply tune-in to highly compensated anti-administration talking heads. They tune-in and walk away with messages of national doom when many economic indicators point to a very different reality.

Our Sunday afternoon look involves a few of the more relevant economic indicators. Indicators that could very well show differently if the administration practice economic policy grounded in simply cutting taxes and cutting safety net programs for the nation's less fortunate.

A few Sunday distractions from the six hour drudgery of NFL Football......

Jobs and Unemployment

Organizing for Action

ECO-JobsChart-October.png

Explistats
Posted  

The BLS U.3 unemployment rate fell in October to 5.8%from 5.9% in September.
The Labor Force Participation rate rose to 62.8% from 62.7%.
The Employment/Population Ratio rose to 59.2% from 59%.
The contribution of these two factors to the Unemployment Rate is shown in the chart below.
This is a good result, with the Labor Force rising yet Employment rising faster.
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Economic Indicators

National Economic Accounts:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Current Numbers:
  • 3rd quarter 2014: 3.5 percent
  • 2nd quarter 2014: 4.6 percent
Next release: November 25, 2014
Quarterly data: Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.6 percent.
Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP

Personal Income
Current Numbers:
  • September 2014: 0.2 percent (personal income)
  • August 2014: 0.3 percent (personal income)
Next release: November 26, 2014
Monthly data: In September 2014, real disposable personal income increased less than 0.1 percent.

Personal Income: Real Disposable Income and Real Consumer Spending Graph

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Industry Economic Accounts:

Quarterly Industry Accounts: GDP by Industry
Quarterly Data: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. Both private goods-and services-producing industries contributed to the increase, while the government sector decreased. Durable-goods manufacturing; finance and ins




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Major Market Indicators

Big Charts, Market Watch


DJIA
Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEX)
Delayed quote data
11/21/2014 04:33 PM
hide quotedetailed quoteoptions chainchart help 
Last:
17,810.06
Change:
arrow +91.06
Open:
17,721.02
High:
17,894.83
Low:
17,721.02
Volume:
140,943,824
Percent Change:
+0.51%
Yield:
n/a
P/E Ratio:
n/a
52 Week Range:
15,340.69 to 17,894.83

NASDAQ
NASDAQ Composite Index (INDEX)
Delayed quote data
11/21/2014 05:16 PM
hide quotedetailed quoteoptions chainchart help 
Last:
4,712.9696
Change:
arrow +11.1021
Open:
4,751.0096
High:
4,751.6032
Low:
4,700.7258
Volume:
n/a
Percent Change:
+0.24%
Yield:
n/a
P/E Ratio:
n/a
52 Week Range:
3,946.0283 to 4,751.6032

S&P
S&P/CNX 500 Index (INDEX)
Delayed quote data
11/21/2014 04:48 PM
hide quotedetailed quoteoptions chainchart help 
Last:
6,847.30
Change:
arrow +41.00
Open:
6,813.05
High:
6,864.45
Low:
6,808.85
Volume:
n/a
Percent Change:
+0.60%
Yield:
n/a
P/E Ratio:
n/a
52 Week Range:
4,596.05 to 6,864.45

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A quick FiresShot Screen capture with The Pardu notations of the DIJA since January 01, 2001. Notice the Bush Sub-Prime and war economy prior to the 2008 collapse.



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US Misery Index Dot US (US Unemployment plus US Inflation)

Misery Index (7.56) equals Unemployment rate (5.9) plus Inflation rate (1.66)
What year do you want to start the report? 
What year do you want to end the report? 

YearMIBar GraphPresident
20007.353.973.38Clinton
20017.574.742.83Bush, G.W.
20027.375.781.59
20038.265.992.27
20048.225.542.68
20058.485.083.39
20067.854.613.24
20077.474.622.85
20089.655.803.85
20098.949.28Obama
201011.279.631.64
201112.118.953.16
201210.158.082.07
20138.867.401.46

Why is US media so full of how the US populace is not feeling an improved US economy when data shows differently?  Could the reports have anything to do with ratings? 
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Consumer Confidence
Investing Dot Com

Actual:94.5 
Forecast:87.0 
Importance:
Currency:
USD
Source Of Report:
Conference Board (Release URL)
2009201020112012201320142030405060708090100201020122014
Sunday, November 23, 2014

October 28, 2014
Investing.com - U.S. consumer confidence improved to the highest level in seven years in October, fuelling optimism over the health of the economy, industry data showed on Tuesday. 
In a report, the Conference Board, a market research group said its index of consumer confidence rose to 94.5 this month from a reading of 89.0 in September, whose figure was revised up from a previously reported 86.0.
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Consumer Spending

Growth in retail sales is slowing, but the read has to view data from the previous year to appreciate US Consumer Spending to date in 2014.

  Excerpt
Retail sales of building materials and supplies are rising as well, and at an annualized level of $264 billion are 5.4% ahead of last year, having surpassed a five-year high. The housing market and consumer activity are key drivers here. Both housing starts and existing home sales have started to move horizontally for now as a result of higher prices, higher interest rates and tighter mortgage credit. Expect the difficulties in the housing market to increase later this year and extend into 2015. Industry participants should be particularly aware of cash needs as the market slows.

Expect a slowdown in retail sales to last through the middle of 2015.

Read More



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Auto Sales 
(since 2009)
US Funds




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Housing Starts
Daily Business News
reed-construction-us-census-bureau-mhpronews-daily-business-news3

Analyzing data released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), total U.S. housing starts in July advanced at the rate Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 1.093 million units. ReedConstructionData noted to MHProNews that this is the second highest level since November 2007 (1.197 million), with November 2013 SAAR hitting 1.105 million starts.
Single-family starts in June were raised by 31,000 units; multiple-family starts by 21,000.
 
While the media may fawn over the tiny house movement, housing market data demonstrates that single family house sizes continue to rise. Dominated by wealthier buyers, the average sized house in 2013 was 2,598 square feet, the highest ever.



Well, the numbers speak volumes about media misinformation, the perceptions of LIVs (Low Information Voters) and the significant efforts of the Obama Administration in reversing years of GOP economic malfeasance.

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