The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

The Obama Economy: Unemployment And Other Barometers

Continues to trend favorable to the nation! Forget political parties, the nation is what is critical!

We often hear about the horrors of the Obama economic. Paul Ryan has referred to our economy as Obama's Achilles Heel.  I have long posited  GOP obstructionism is the reason we still have a stale economy.   The economy is about jobs. People who work spend and spending drives an economy  If Private Sector jobs has been a a good rate, and public sector jobs lag, ask yourself, "Where can any president impact jobs most?"   Public sector jobs. What political party has obstructed all attempts at jobs initiatives    

Let take a look at the real picture on the Obama economy.


October 11, 2012

 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA


In the week ending October 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 369,000. The 4-week moving average was 364,000, a decrease of 11,500 from the previous week's revised average of 375,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending September 29, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 29 was 3,273,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,288,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,279,250, a decrease of 7,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,287,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 327,063 in the week ending October 6, an increase of 25,990 from the previous week. There were 405,906 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent during the week ending September 29, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,778,396, a decrease of 42,837 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.5 percent and the volume was 3,113,245.
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending September 22 was 5,044,649, a decrease of 43,970 from the previous week. There were 6,819,938 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2011.
Extended Benefits were only available in New York during the week ending September 22.
Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,545 in the week ending September 29, an increase of 230 from the prior week. There were 2,514 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 4 from the preceding week.
There were 17,283 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending September 22, an increase of 704 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 38,511, a decrease of 18 from the prior week.
States reported 2,106,072 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending September 22, a decrease of 36,977 from the prior week. There were 3,016,035 persons claiming EUC in the comparable week in 2011. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending September 22 were in Puerto Rico (3.9), Alaska (3.7), Virgin Islands (3.7), Pennsylvania (3.2), New Jersey (3.1), California (3.1), Connecticut (2.9), Nevada (2.7), and Oregon (2.7).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 29 were in New York (+2,764), California (+2,069), North Carolina (+1,217), Pennsylvania (+989), and Arkansas (+538), while the largest decreases were in Mississippi (-3,393), Michigan (-2,639), Florida (-1,972), Ohio (-1,723), and Oregon (-1,135).

(SA: seasonally adjusted) (NSA: not seasonally adjusted)

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

WEEK ENDING
Advance Oct. 6
Sept. 29
Change
Sept. 22
Prior Year1

Initial Claims (SA)
339,000
369,000
-30,000
363,000
402,000
Initial Claims (NSA)
327,063
301,073
+25,990
303,685
405,906
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)
364,000
375,500
-11,500
375,000
403,500
There is much more after the break below (much more)


Job growth








The unemployment rate surged to 10% in Obama's first year in office and has fallen gradually since then, landing at 7.8% as of September. Part of the decline has come as some Americans have gone back to work, but also because many workers have dropped out of the labor force.

Unemployment

During the first three months of 2009, the economy slumped at an annual rate of 5.3%. Since then GDP has been growing and slowly recovering, but the rebound has been a lackluster one compared to those following prior recessions.

Economic Growth




Home prices have moved up and down since the start of Obama's term. Lifted in 2010 on the back of the Recovery Act's homebuyer tax credit, prices later fell when the credit expired. But overall, the trend has been lower, and housing remains in a major slump.

Home Prices




More than 3 million Americans have lost their homes to foreclosure since early 2009, but bank repossessions have fallen in half since they peaked in September 2010.

Foreclosures


Gas and food prices have had a few temporary growth spurts in the past few years, but overall, inflation has remained relatively low, held back by falling home prices and stagnant wages.

Inflation

Three-and-a-half years ago, filling up at the pump cost around $1.60 a gallon. But then, gas prices began to climb, eventually topping out at nearly $4 a gallon in mid-2011, and coming pretty close again in 2012. Since then, prices have fallen back a bit. 


Gas prices



After bottoming out in 2009, stocks came roaring back over the next several years. But after starting 2012 with the best quarter in years, the European debt crisis and a slowing U.S. economy spooked investors, putting CNNMoney's Fear & Greed index in extreme fear territory. Experts still predict the S&P 500 will end 2012 on a high note. Most strategists surveyed by CNNMoney think the broad index will end the year up 15% from where it started.

Stocks


Already-low interest rates rose steadily in 2009 as the economy slowly began to recover, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note hitting 4.01% in the spring of 2010. But since then, extreme fear has settled in, causing investors to flee for the safety of government-backed U.S. Treasuries, sending 10-year yields tumbling.

Interest rates



Manufacturing slowed through much of 2009, bottoming out midway through the year. Since then, the sector has steadily rebounded, with industrial production hitting a nearly four-year high in April.

Manufacturing


Amid slumping home prices and rising unemployment, consumers pulled back on their spending during the recession. Stimulus programs temporarily boosted auto sales and home purchases in 2009, but since then, spending has picked up only gradually. Consumers are focusing on paying down debt instead.

Consumer spending



The financial crisis of 2008 spurred a big chunk of spending increases and tax cuts to stem the pain of the downturn. That's a key reason why debt held by the public -- individual bondholders, big investors, and foreign governments -- has increased significantly since 2008. That jump will have to be paid off with interest.

Much of those emergency measures will end, so for the next decade annual deficits should be much lower than they've been recently. But over the long run, debt is still projected to grow faster than the economy. Policymakers will have to address it soon, or risk not being able to fund everything Americans expect their government to do.

National debt (% of GDP)



The bank bailout and federal stimulus programs aimed at juicing the economy pushed up spending significantly in fiscal 2009, which began in October of 2008. Revenue, meanwhile, fell to 60-year lows as the economy slumped and millions of people lost their jobs. That, in turn, increased safety net spending.

Government spending




The Obama economy is a far cry improved over the economy before he took office. It is exponentially better than the prospect of an economic depression.



If I may place a bit of icing on the cake. Osama bin Laden and hundreds of Al Qaeda FORMER leaders are someplace chasing their promised 41 virgins or little boys!  

If you are going to disparage the Obama Administration, you really should stay way from the economy and national defense.  Now what is left PBS and Big Bird?

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