The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Saturday, May 4, 2013

A Record DIJA, DIJA Broke 15,000 And A Record S&P And Other Economic Indicators

Enjoy while the caffeine kicks-in!!!!


A few economic indicators to go along with your Sumatra,  Kopi Luwak IndonesianKenya AA, Tanzanian, French Roast, Kona Coast, 'Black Ivory' [Thai Elephant Dong],  Jamaica Blue Mountain, Ethiopian Yirgacheffe, Costa Rican, Espresso,  Moyobama Peruvian Organic, Indonesian Blend, Coffee Latte, Kauai Blend (often bitter), Colombian Red Lips, or your Folgers 100% Colombian.

One a day when the DIJA broke 15,000 for the first time in market history and the S & P continues to flirt with record performance, I feel it is time to lay out a few economic indicators.  We post economic indicators here TPI from time to time, but never have we had the privilege of laying out a piece with such good market data. It should noted the the 7.5% unemployment is commendable  but not even close to consider healthy for the US economy.  

We consistently hear about a weak economy.  Well, sure the economy is not booming, but consistent reports on news media such as CNN and Fox News would lead viewers to believe a another recession is looming.  

Financial Markets (May 3, 2013)

Yahoo FinanceS & P 500S&P 500 (^GSPC) -SNP

1,616.38 Up 18.79(1.18%) 12:22PM EDT
Range:1d 5d 1m 3m 6m 1y 2y 5y max




Chart forS&P 500 (^GSPC)

S&P 500 (^GSPC)

-SNP
Prev Close:                             1,597.59                    
Open:1,597.60
Day's Range:  1,597.60 - 1,618.46
52wk Range:1,266.74 - 1,618.46

I believe the S & P closed at a historic high on April 30, 2013.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average 5 Year
and 5 Day close 

5 Year
Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) 
14,988.06 Up 156.48(1.06%) 12:04PM EDT
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
Range:1d 5d 1m 3m 6m 1y 2y 5y max




Chart forDow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

-DJI
Prev Close:                  14,831.58
Open:14,831.58
Day's Range:14,831.58 - 15,009.59
52wk Range:12,035.10 - 15,009.59


Five Day

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

 -DJI
14,984.50 Up 152.92(1.03%) 12:06PM EDT
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
Range:1d 5d 1m 3m 6m 1y 2y 5y max




Chart forDow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

-DJI
Prev Close:                  14,831.58
Open:14,831.58
Day's Range:14,831.58 - 15,009.59
52wk Range:12,035.10 - 15,009.59
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NASDAQ

5 Year
Advertisement

NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC)

 -NASDAQ
3,384.54 Up 43.92(1.31%) 12:32PM EDT
NASDAQ Composite (NASDAQ)
Range:1d 5d 1m 3m 6m 1y 2y 5y max




Chart forNASDAQ Composite (^IXIC)

NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC)

-NASDAQ
Prev Close:                    3,340.62
Open:3,371.41
Day's Range:    3,370.30 - 3,388.08
52wk Range:2,726.68 - 3,388.08

Despite incessant comment about "weak economy" the financial indicators are hovering at record levels.
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Employment

Jobless claims fall to 5-year low





http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/03/news/economy/long-term-unemployed/index.html


And there’s this from Steve Benen at The Maddow Blog:



NEW YORK (CNNMoney) @AnnalynKurtz May 2, 2013: 9:46 AM ET jobless claims 050213
After rising as high as 670,000 during the jobs crisis, weekly jobless claims are at less than half that level. April Jobs Numbers jobs 050313
First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level in five years last week, signaling fewer layoffs in the economy. 
About 324,000 people filed initial claims, the Labor Department said Thursday. The report was better than expected on all accounts. Economists were anticipating an increase in claims, but instead, the report showed claims had declined by 18,000 from the prior week, marking the lowest level since January 2008. 
Robert Oak, correctly states, unemployment in the nation is a lingering economy killer (my words). The ticking lower and lower by .01% brings little solace to the very high number of people actually unemployed. In fact, Oaks, like all who write and speak about the economy focus on that group of people who are not looking for work. I hear some referring to those people as the chronically unemployed. I posit many of those people are the "frustrated who prefer to work, but have no opportunity."



The Progressive Influence's position on unemployment? We are not seeing enough targeted initiatives from the Federal Government related to jobs  It seems the majority of issues broadcast across our air-ways are social issues. Jobs drive all capitalist economies   During a presidential press conference earlier this week, not one question about jobs reached the president's ears.  Why is the press so not interested in the key driver of our economy  jobs (people working)? There is no inertia from Congress on jobs. When congress expends little to no time on bills that impact jobs, the economy suffers.  The only congressional comment I hear or read related to jobs are from the Keystone XL Pipeline. Comments lobbyist feed members of congress. And, their jobs numbers are either false or exaggerated. 

The Economic Populist (April with emphasis on March Numbers)
Submitted by Robert Oak on April 5, 2013 - 6:36pm 

The BLS employment report shows the official unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 7.6%, but not because people gained employment. Instead the unemployment rate dropped due to less people participating in the labor market. The labor participation rate just hit a record low, not seen since May 1979 when many segments of the population was still quite discriminated against in the workforce. One cannot just blame retiring baby boomers for low labor participation rates This article overviews and graphs the statistics from the Current Population Survey of the employment report. Below is a graph of the official unemployment rate.

The labor participation rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 63.3%, mentioned above. The labor participation rate is at artificial lows, where people needing a job are not being counted. A drop isn't good actually for it means that those who dropped out of the labor force are staying out of the labor force. For those claiming the low labor participation rate is just people retired, we proved that false by analyzing labor participation rates by age.

 
The number of employed people now numbers 143,286,000, a -206,000 monthly decline. We describe here why you shouldn't use the CPS figures on a month to month basis to determine actual job growth. These are people employed not actual jobs. In terms of labor flows, the employed has been static for the last six months, a decline of 42,000 employed since October 2012. From a year ago the employed have risen 1.266 million, but bear in mind the noninstitutional population has also increased by 2.391 million during the same time period. The statistics from the CPS generally vary widely from month to month. Below is a graph of the Current Population Survey employed.

 
Those unemployed stands at 11,742,000, a decline of -290,000 from last month. Below is the change in unemployed and as we can see, this number also swings wildly on a month to month basis.
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Home Prices and Investment Residential 
Huffington Post
The housing market continues to show signs of strength, with home prices posting their biggest yearly gain since 2006, the year the market began a historic slide that snowballed into a global financial crisis.
WIKI Case-Schiller Index
The Standard & Poor's Case–Shiller Home Price Indices are constant-quality house price indices for the United States. The indices reflect prices in real terms, which means they are corrected for inflation. There are multiple Case–Shiller home price indices: A national home price index, a 20-city composite index, a 10-city composite index, and twenty individual metro area indices.
Case-Shiller Reports Soaring Home Prices for February 2013 The Economic Populist Dot Org
Submitted by Robert Oak on April 30, 2013 - 3:11pm 
S&P estimates home prices are down approximately 29-30% from the height of the housing bubble's June and July 2006 price peaks. These statistics use the not seasonally adjusted home price indices. The question now is who is buying up all of these homes? Somehow we do not believe institutional investors making fast profits means the housing market has returned to healthy levels. To wit, the Census released home ownership rates and for Q1, they are down to Q4 1995 levels. Rents are also increasing. Both of these metrics do not support your average person buying a home and instead to institutional investors and potentially inventory being kept off the market, such as bank owned foreclosures.
home ownership rate
The February 2013 S&P Case Shiller home price index shows a 9.3% price increase from a year ago for over 20 metropolitan housing markets and a 8.6% change for the top 10 housing markets from February 2012. This is the highest yearly gain since May 2006. Let the housing bubble return! Not seasonally adjusted home prices are now comparable to September 2003 levels for the composite-20 and November 2003 for the composite-10. Below is the yearly percent change in the composite-10 and composite-20 Case-Shiller Indices, not seasonally adjusted.


Fixed investment is residential and nonresidential and is a bright spot in the Q1 GDP report, as it was in Q4. Overall, fixed investment contributed +0.53 percentage points to GDP.

Part of fixed investment is Residential fixed investment. Residential contributed +0.31 percentage points to Q1 GDP. One can see the housing bubble collapse in the below graph and also how there is no meteoric recovery, but a modest one, for Q1, in spite of all of the housing data hype. 
_________________________ Gross Domestic Products
GDP 2.5% for Q1 2013
Submitted by Robert Oak on April 26, 2013 - 5:54pm 
Q1 2013 real GDP came in at 2.5% This is an improvement, from the stagnant economy GDP in the 4th quarter implied. Government spending declines continue to be a drag on the economy and sucked out -0.9 percentage points from 1st quarter real gross domestic product growth. Imports increased and cost the United States -0.9 percentage points of Q1 GDP. Investment recovered on changes to farm private inventories. Consumer spending increased from Q4 as well. Generally speaking 2.5% GDP implies moderate economic growth, yet overall demand in the economy is weak.
_________________________ Manufacturing
Submitted by Robert Oak on April 16, 2013 - 1:05pm
The March 2013 Federal Reserve's Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization report shows a monthly increase of 0.4% in industrial production. March's increase would have been non-existent if the weather hadn't turned cold. Utilities' output increased 3.5% for March as mining fell -0.2% and Manufacturing dropped -0.1% for the month. February was revised up to a 1.1% increase, buoyed again by utilities. Q1 2013 gives an annualized output gain of 5.0%, the largest since Q1 2012. The Q1 output gain was spurred by utilities, which by itself grew 10.5% for Q1 2013. The G.17 industrial production statistical release is also known as output for factories and mines.
Read much more from Robert Oak _________________________

US Light Vehicle Sales March 2013 Calculated Risk Blog Dot Com

The chart indicates flat light vehicle sales for the month of March.  The image above provides a history of Light Vehicle sales from 2006 (Pre-financial crisis and 2 years before the Bush Great recession).  Yes, we see flat, but we also see a robust auto industry that is gaining in markets and selling well in markets outside the US.


Wardsauto Dot Com

Inflation
The Fed targets inflation of 2 percent.
Sources:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2013/04/30/april-u-s-auto-sales-best-since-2007-which-is-even-better-than-it-sounds/

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/04/30/consumer-confidence-rises-april/

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/case-shiller-reports-soaring-home-prices-february-2013

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/01/federal-reserve-warns_n_3194571.html

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