The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Palin "Be Quiet!"; The Business Of Polling, And A Message To Fox News

The NBC/WSJ Poll and the image below serves a purpose. We will get to the story in a moment. First, let's explore a bit of background on the re-emergence of the half-term Governor from Alaska: Sarah Palin. 


"........(tired of) the president's lawlessness and use of executive power, and the Republicans can't just "bring a lawsuit to a gunfight," they need to "halt an imperial presidency."

As per a piece we published earlier in the week, Sarah Palin has come out of hibernation to secure attention, revenue and to boost the viewership of the Sean Hannity Show.

It is amazing, few Fox News hosts bother with booking Palin. Since, there is no need to explore the "why" related to her booking almost exclusively on the Hannity Show, we shouldn't be surprised about her bookings. Hannity's predominately tea party, pseudo-militia, anti-Obama (anarcho) hater viewers apparently are not 'daily tune-ins.' If Hannity needs viewers and has a mission of Obama derangement, what drives viewers better than the Great Northern dimwit's appearances on the show? Quite probably show guest who call for Obama's impeachment. With Palin, Hannity gets both!

Palin's call for impeachment proceedings against President Obama is the magnet that will always draw Hannity's viewers closer to the Cathode Ray tube, or flat Screen. Her rambling, babbling, staccato oratory without doubt sends Hannity's viewers to "nite-nite" with visions and dreams of President Obama in a Senate impeachment hot seat. 

Take a listen to Palin's call to action.  It is a long 6:23 minutes, but there are times we simply must remind ourselves to get out and vote.

While Hannity's pre-bedtime viewers may relish a dose of Palin before retiring, the sentiment is not shared across the nation.   

The previously mentioned Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Annenberg poll reveals Palin is the politician among 6 possible candidates survey respect most wanted to "shut-up", ".... be quiet."

During the period of June 20 to July 7 (except July 4th) Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Annenberg polled 1,392 people with a stated margin of error of 3.14% indicated a majority would like less from Sarah Palin. The poll was completed prior to this week's Fox News Palin infusion, and I have to wonder if Fox will pay attention to the negative perception of the undesirable one from Wasilla.

Over half of the poll respondents (54%) indicated a preference for Palin to "be quiet." If "be quiet" isn't enough of an indicator, how about a more specific qualifier: "fade away." The embodiment of "be quiet" and "fade away," are at the core of two messages. First, people are totally not into Palin. Also, the data indicates Hannity should seek another ratings draw. 

NBC/WSJ Annenberg Poll respondent preferences regarding Palin do not surprise me in any sense. However, when I review a survey poll information, I much prefer to review methodology and background data. No poll results are complete without an opportunity to perform personal analysis of data related to survey respondents. The perfect example (As I often state) was survey data that led to this headline, "A Majority harbor prejudice towards blacks." The AP/GfK poll of October 2012; two weeks before the 2012 General Elections.

TPI (October 2012)
If you never ever review poll data, you have to give a look at the AP/GfK Poll  data released just a few days before the November 6th Elections. The poll's major tickler was, a "Majority harbor prejudice towards blacks".   [See Link above]
Page 33 of the Growth for Knowledge (GfK) poll reads like this:

The TPI Link provided in the table will take you to even more startling and ridiculous survey findings related to perceptions of candidate religion. The 1,071 survey respondents (predominately white and from the South) seem to have been comprised of a potential respondent pool stacked for achievement of desired results. The headline: "Majority harbor prejudice towards blacks," was both indicative of what many should consider flawed survey administration via GfK, and indicative of the dangers of subsequent headlining via media or political operatives.

Did you see the point? How can a survey that was conducted among a predominate number of white males in the US South, garner nationwide reporting? It happens based on a number of factors. Who pays for the poll? What are the underlying reasons for the development of specific poll questions? Why was the study undertaken?

To sum-up my point of AP/GfK The Monkey Cage published a review of poll accuracy after the 2012 General Elections. 
Yet, the national headlines read: "Majority harbor prejudice towards blacks."  "Ya Think?"

Again, I relish in NBC/WSJ/Annenberg poll results that indicate Palin should "zip-it."  However, I would be less than credible and completely disingenuous if I did not address the business of polling as a growing political tool. If I criticize polling when results generate questionable results, I also have need to see the survey tool when the results are to my favor.

People have a tendency to follow paths that appear well worn by the hordes. Public opinion is shaped at its core via sharing public opinion.  If the public opinion tool is flawed, the information recipients assimilate could be either manipulated, carelessly developed, shared for the sake of influence the reader and in all cases wrong.

If you need a bit of NBC/WSJ Poll data that drives my need to review background methodology data, check this out.  (highlight added)
The same poll also finds 36 percent of voters saying the U.S. economy has improved and President Obama deserves credit for it, 16 percent saying the economy has improved but he doesn't deserve credit and 47 percent saying the economy hasn't improved during his presidency.
It doesn't take a great deal of curiosity to come to a conclusion on the 47% who feel the economy "hasn't improved" under during the Obama presidency. Since, march of 2009 the US economy has improved with an exception for the unemployed who the GOP refuses to assist. The data certainly reflect on the survey respondent group. Either the respondent group includes an inordinate number of uninformed people who have zero investments in US markets, do not seek data beyond Fox News, or many in the respondent group have an axe to grind against the Obama Administration. 

NBC/WSJ has sought a polling partner via Annenberg Public Policy Center. The partnership is reported as a first for Annenberg as the polling authority hasn't previously partnered with "media polls." If you know your polling information, you already know media polling doesn't have a high "trust" value.  If you are not "up" on media polling information, have a look.

According the Washington Post...
But more than two-thirds distrust polls conducted by political parties or candidates and automated telephone surveys. Media polls fall in the middle, with somewhat more distrusting than trusting. Note: the "News media" category below.

2013-09-04 Which polls do people trust
If 2013 data revealed a lean towards "distrust " of media polls, it is as clear as a glass of fresh Artesian spring water why NBC/WSJ wold seek a more "trusted" partner. 
Therefore, the need for more background data and methodology is critical. While the survey authority has indicated a desire for more polling and better quality data (in this election year), we live in a very mistrusting world. Why should Palin supporters and non-supporters find any relevance in the poll, if we cannot see demographic and political affiliation data on the respondents?

Frankly, the Palin poll response is pleasing, as I certainly wish she would find her way out of US media. Yet, I question the veracity of the survey since it is void of background information to add a clear picture of its respondent group. If we read and listen carefully, we get an indication the survey respondent group had leanings that were right of center. An indications is the response to the question about Obama and the US economy with 47% feeling the economy has not improved is an insight of note.

On July 10, MSNBC ran a Daily Rundown segment with NBC News's Mark Murray that provided additional indications of a survey that leaned right. Thus, the 54% who wish Palin would be quiet (inclusive of 4 or 10 Republicans) should send Fox News a message. 

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