The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

The Statistikhengst: The 2014 Vote And Beyond (Statistikhengst the "2013 and Beyond" Study)

Embedded image permalink

Embedded image permalink

The Statistikhengst, Statistics Swordmaster, is back. We welcome the return of the prolific (vote) researcher while also marveling at the scope and depth of his work.

Statistikhengst ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond

N4mb3rz: Math triumphs over propaganda

There are only a few considerations more critical to a great society than the vote. A truly democratic socio/political system isn't possible without a fair system of citizen vote balloting elections in which citizens serve on governing bodies from municipal, through state and the highest perch of federal governance. 

As humankind has moved from hunter tribes to highly industrial lands with millions upon millions living like numerous Ant colonies, the need for governing authority has evolved.
  While some peoples retain feudal-like governing authority (deep rain forest tribes), other nations have devolved into the utter chaos and diminished life styles in nations like Somalia. There is no need to further explore forms of government from the nation killing clan and warlord coexistence in Somalia. What follows is a depiction of forms of government where the the vote is most critical or where the vote is denied.

Of course, some nations live under the rule of Theocracy (Iran) and the rule of absolute Monarchy (Saudi Arabia and certain other middle eastern nations). The four forms of government above are differentiated by one distinguishable act that isn't common among the four: the vote

The vote counts. Your Vote Counts!

I recently read of a voter registration tally for St. Louis County, Missouri. The county in which the suburb of Ferguson and killer cop Darren Wilson set nestled among the otherwise peaceful environs of near Northern St. Louis County. Voter registration since Darren Wilson's execution of the unarmed teen Michael Brown included a spike that many Americans will not repeat. Of the 4600 plus registrants over 3200 were Ferguson residents. We will not repeat mass registration because the killing in Ferguson Missouri does  not reach their safe enclaves where police help with pizza delivery or help little old lady's across the intersection crosswalk.

As a nation and a people very much divided by social politics, one has to look no farther than the 2010 mid-term elections for evidence of the nation killing grab of a political party. People energized against the election of the nation's first non-white male president and funded by greed filled nation grabbing would be 'oligarchs,' handed the GOP the US House or Representatives. We handed the GOP one half of one of three branches US Constitutional government. The House via the lack of voter inertia and impetus in 2010 adjoined the conservative and regressive Robert's SCOTUS while taking the financial utility of the federal government to the "Dark Ages."

Our world hasn't been the same since January 2011 after the tea party infested House joined the SCOTUS in service to its constituents: corporate American, growing white nationalism and oozing evangelicalism.

If you are reading here, there is no need to explore voter ID laws as a GOP strategy for winning elections. Whether you are progressive and liberal or regressive and conservative, you know of GOP voter suppression. Let's assume the GOP will have success in restricting the votes of blacks, Latinos, certain of the elderly and the chronic poor; predominate Democrat voting blocs. Thus, every vote counts.  

While a deep study and report of voter registration will not guarantee a moderately higher turnout this fall, it is safe to assume understanding the level and scope of enrollment can only help. 

The Statistikhengst offers an opportunity and impetus for a nation threading on political disaster inherent in oligarchy. A nation with only one tool in combating a developing oligarchy: the vote

As offered by Statistikhengst the "2013 and Beyond" study is voluminous. We will offer the Voter Registration (VR) in as concise and meaningful manner as we can discern and report. You and I both know such data can tip the attention scale towards boring, but we must recognize the critical need for a higher than normal progressive voter turnout in less than six weeks. And, we must act on data that indicates lagging registration where we can least afford to lag. In more simple terms, voter information may help to, in some cases, offset Koch and Adelson shadow money to the right.

Here is the link to the Statistikhengst webpage:

Voter Registration in the USA: September 2014

A summary of hard facts from the linked page.

Hard facts:
Currently, there are 183,037,283 registered voters in the USA plus DC. There were 183,821,274 registered voters at the time I did this analysis last in December, 2013. This means that there are currently 783,993 LESS people registered to vote than at the end of December, 2013, but it is very possible that there will be a last minute rush to register right before the 2014 midterms, which is why I will definitely be updating this analysis at the beginning of November and then again, at the end of December in this year. 
Now, we know that from day to day, people are coming on and off the rolls all over the place via death, moving, coming of voting age, etc., but those things generally cancel each other out and daily changes on the national level would then be pretty micoscopic. So, it is fair to say that right now, 183 million are registered.

Of those 183,821,274, 111,301,204 (60.81%) registered voters come from the 31 states plus DC that provide VR statistics by partisan affiliation. In December, 2013, that statistic was 61.08% of the total VR for the country, so the balance between states that do VR by party identification and states that do not has barely budged.

The other 71,736,079 (39.19%) registered voters come from 17 states that do not provide VR statistics by party affiliation, but rather, publish a VR total. That statistic was 38.92% of the total VR for the country, so the balance between states that do VR by party identification and states that do not has barely budged. 
The picture will always be somewhat incomplete as ND has no voter registration at all and MS provides no VR stats. Also, Alabama's latest stats are still from the GE-2012, there, my hands are tied. 
In 2011, this report showed ca. 177.8 million registered voters, so the off-year rolls have grown somewhat, by about 6.5 million, with the population of the USA.
We can only hope there is a last minute "rush" to register.  

I hope the Statistikhengst will forgive me, but I am going to now revert back to the lede of his post for background on the challenges and explanation of his voluminous work.

Voter Registration in the USA: September 2014

as compared to 2010 (and just for fun: to General Election 2012)
I have completed a fourth major study of voter registration in the USA. Well, „completed“ is not accurate, for the stats are constantly changing. Rather, I can now provide a very reliable snapshot of one point in history and compare it as best as possible to the same time-frame four years ago and also to the GE 2012. These are the RV statistics for the Union in September 2014. I will be updating this data from now until GE 2016 every six months or so and posting a new report each time. For that is the entire idea – to follow and note changes in the electorate in the time leading up to the next GE.

Because of Federalism, there is no standard system in the USA for recording statistics pertaining to elections (voter registration, voter turnout, election results) according to any criteria. This makes getting information about Voter Registration somewhat of an adventure, and also, because not all states have -or publish- voter registration by party affiliation, it is impossible to come up with complete partisan statistics for the Union.

It gets even more adventurous as many State SOS or BOE or Governor's or Lt. Governor's websites are constantly moving data into archives and former links then go defunct. Different states have different ways of terming things, but the end result is just the same. Whether a state calls is a „registered voter database“, a „voter registration file“ or „roll of voters“, it all means the same thing. Some states publish only the number of voters registered, while others publish them by partisan affiliation. Some publish VR stats only by number and race and/or gender an/or age. Some states publish VR stats every week, others every month, others once quarterly, others only per election, etc. So, it's a mixed bag, to say the least.

What I have done is to research the websites for all 50 states plus DC and included links to all the current VR totals in this excel document containing 10 tables:

1.) Complete Table. (complete raw data for everything) [A piece of masterful work- The Pardu]
Feel free to go to the table and first check out the stats for your own state. That link above was to the first tab, you can click on the other 9 tabs at the bottom.

For convienience, here are the links to the other tabs:

5.) Partisan affiliation - descending by DEM %.
6.) Partisan affiliation - descending by GOP %.
7.) Partisan affiliation - descending by "other" %. ("Other" means splitter parties)
8.) Partisan affiliation - descending by unaffiliated %.
9.) Partisan affiliation - margin edge D-R, in hourglass form.
10.) Partisan affiliation - margin edge R-D, in hourglass form.
Embedded image permalink

Additional pieces to follow.....

No comments :

Post a Comment