The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Monday, February 23, 2015

The Statistikhengst, 2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field

The statistical genius and persistent politics geek, The Statistikhengst, published Part VI of his long running data of polling towards 2016. The piece was published this past January and I ask for forgiveness in failing to post the piece on the TPI. If you have visited the TPI and read Parts One through Five of the series, you know the focus of the series is on-going developments in political polling regarding Hillary Clinton's potential candidacy.

The piece is data laden, but recall our credo: "Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells."

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond

N4mb3rz: Math triumphs over propaganda.

2016 General Election: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part VI

This is report no. VI, a continuation of the Hillary Clinton vs. GOP polling series that I started on March 17, 2013:

Here are the other analyses in the series, to-date: Part II , Part IIIPart IV and Part V.

This report is NOT here to proclaim that Hillary is going to win, no matter what. This report IS continuing a baseline that I started to build 2 years ago. That being said, it shows amazing consistency in polling for the former First Lady of the USA, former Senator from the great state of New York and former Secretary of State of the USA. This report simply shows the numbers, ALL of the numbers. Until October of 2015, I will not be calculating any polling averages, unless of course an avalanche of polling starts in key states. Some Conservatives express displeasure when they see such a report, but they are being short-sighted: a baseline is only valuable when you see ALL of it, meaning, that should Hillary's fortunes change, we will be able to record that as well. Again, these are just the numbers, as they are right now.

Back in March of 2013, 14 states had been polled. As of today, 32 states have been polled, 31 of which contain presidential match-ups (the lone California poll only has Clinton FAV/UNFAV ratings). Here is how this looks on a map:

As of today, 19 January 2015, state and national polls put together, there have been:

252 polls total, making for 861 presidential matchups.

Hillary Clinton has won 664 of those 741 matchups (77.12%)

The GOP field of various candidates have won 178 of those matchups (20.67%) and there have been 19 mathematical ties (2.21%).

I can now report with 100% confidence that Hillary Clinton (D) is the most polled "non-declared" candidate in our Union's history. No candidate has ever before been polled in this many polls or with this many matchups.

So, in spite of the fact that the number of polls has more than tripled in the last year and the number of matchups has more than quadrupled since then, the actual statistic of wins for Hillary Clinton has remained very stable.  I would like to show this with three charts, all self-explanatory:

Report dateno. State pollsno. state matchupsClintonGOPtiesmargin
17 Mar 2013153482.35%14.71%2.94%+67.64
06 Aug 20134010273.53%21.57%4.90%+51.96
16 Nov 20135815875.95%21.51%2.54%+54.44
11 May 201411538675.65%21.51%2.85%+54.14
02 Oct 201416660274.75%22.76%2.49%+51.99
19 Jan 201519769372.29%24.96%2.74%+47.33

Report dateno. Nat'l pollsno. Nat'l matchupsClintonGOPtiesmargin
17 Mar 2013511100.00%0.00%0.00%100
06 Aug 20132138100.00%0.00%0.00%100
16 Nov 2013255198.04%1.96%0.00%+96.08
11 May 20144112296.72%3.28%0.00%+93.44
02 Oct 20144713997.12%2.88%0.00%+94.24
19 Jan 20155516897.02%2.98%0.00%+94.04

Report dateno. all pollsno. all matchupsClintonGOPtiesmargin
17 Mar 2013204586.67%15.55%0.22%+71.12
06 Aug 20136114080.71%15.72%3.57%+64.99
16 Nov 20138320981.34%16.75%1.91%+64.59
11 May 201415650880.71%17.13%2.17%+63.58
02 Oct 201421374178.95%19.03%2.02%+59.92
19 Jan 201525286177.12%20.67%2.21%+56.45

The column on the left of each table is the report date. One table is only for the state polls/matchups, the second table is for the national polls/matchups and the third table is for all polls combined. Look at how very stable those numbers have remained over almost two years. The largest change has happened in state polling, where a number of "red" states which are rarely polled were polled quite a bit before the November 2014 mid-term elections.

Here is an exact table, by state, with the number of polls, matchups, and who won:

StateNo. of pollsNo. of MatchupsClinton winsGOP winsTies
TOTAL state polls19769350117319
TOTAL state and national25286166417819
% state polls only

% state and nat'l together


All of the polling values are here in this EXCEL DOCUMENT. I encourage all readers to go to this link and use the tabs at the bottom to see their state first and peruse as much as they wish.

Here is a screenshot of an example of  the layout of this table, using the state of Ohio as an example:

See screenshot on original webpage, linked here.

You will notice that the polls are numbered in reverse chronological order, with the latest poll at the top. All polls are linked, so you can click on the link for every single poll and see the results for yourself. The release date of the poll (European dating system) is then following by the survey size and MoE (Margin of Error). Then, if there are any FAV/UNFAV numbers or DEM nomination figures, they come next. I am not averaging polls yet.

Read much more after the break below

The Presidential matchups follow in this order:

Clinton vs. Christie
Clinton vs. Paul
(at the point the screenshot shows no more, you would have to scroll out at the excel table to see the rest)
Clinton vs. Ryan
Clinton vs. Cruz
Clinton vs. Bush, J.
Clinton vs. Rubio
Clinton vs. Huckabee

And then, any other GOP candidates that have been polled in that particular state.

The numbers are COLOR CODED (blue = DEM / red = GOP) and bolded = the higher value. Wherever you see values in italic, that means a mathematical tie.

The following 33 pollsters have polled Hillary vs. GOP matchups thus far:

NBC (Princeton)
Marist / McClatchy
The Field Poll
Gravis (R)
Harper (R)
Purple Strategies
Marquette University Poll
Latino Decisions
The Arkansas Poll
The Polling Company
Conservative Intel
Loras College
Civitas (R)
St. Leo University
Fox News

Here is a map of those states that have been polled, colored by the winner of the majority of the match-ups. In the case of Colorado and Kentucky it's really quite close, so I am leaving both states green for now.

This map is NOT a prediction map. It only shows who has won the majority of matchups. And interestingly enough, it has barely changed since May, 2014.

New in this report: an exact listing of how many matchups per prospective Republican candidate vs. Hillary.

Of, the 861 matchups mentioned above, all recorded in the EXCEL TABLE (again, the link), the number of matchups looks like this:

Christie (R) vs. Hillary (D): 181 matchups to-date.
Paul (R) vs. Hillary (D): 172 matchups to-date.
Bush, Jeb (R) vs. Hillary (D): 150 matchups to-date.
Cruz (R) vs. Hillary (D): 88 matchups to-date.
Ryan (R) vs. Hillary (D): 67 matchups to-date.
Rubio (R) vs. Hillary (D): 67 matchups to-date.
Huckabee (R) vs. Hillary (D): 66 matchups to-date.
The remaining matchup are spread among Perry (9), Palin (9), Romney (7), Santorum (7) and Carson (3) - those are the other prospective GOP candidates who have also been polled at least once nationally and in at least one state poll as well. That brings us to 826 matchups. The remaining matchups are therefore against prospective GOP candidates who have only been polled at the state level: Walker, Jindal, Kasich, McDonnell, Gingrich, Haley, Pence, Pawlenty, Bachmann, Ayotte, Martinez and Brewer.

So, of polling to-date, 24 GOP names have been polled against Hillary, with the top 7 names getting the vast majority of matchups. In the appendix to this report: an exact listing by name, state and number of matchups.

What to make of all of this?

Well, it's still early, but the trend we have seen all through all of 2013 and all of 2014 is that Hillary Clinton is demonstrably ahead in the battleground states that have decided the last 6 elections cycles. Not only is she ahead in those states, she is decisively ahead. And in states where the GOP is winning, the aggregate margins are reduced.

1.) The Quntifecta: Florida (29 EV), Pennsylvania (20 EV) Ohio (18 EV), North Carolina (15 EV) and Virginia (13 EV). Total EV: 95

In every one of those 5 states, Hillary is considerably ahead of her potential GOP opponents.

In Virginia, one of the most polled states thus far, there have been 15 polls with 45 matchups. Hillary has won 43 of them, there was one tie and Christie (R) won one matchup in a poll from 2013 that I missed and just included in the statistic (Washington Beacon Poll). All said and told, Hillary is at between +4 and +16 against GOP candidates, all margins larger than Obama's 2012 win. The latest Roanoke poll has her 16 points ahead of Rand Paul.

In Florida, one of the most polled states thus far, there have been 18 polls with 61 matchups and Hillary has won 59 of 61 matchups, with the majority of the margins in double-digits. No Democratic candidate that I know of has scored these type of margins in Florida in modern polling history. Not even Bill Clinton scored these kinds of numbers. The only prospective GOPer who makes Florida competitive is fomer GOP Governor Jeb Bush.

The kind of polling we are seeing out of Florida and Virginia should be the no. 1 warning sign for the GOP.

In North Carolina, there have been 16 polls and 54 matchups, of which Hillary Clinton has won 43. A strike against this data is that 12 of these 16 have been from PPP (D) and I would much prefer to see a broad base of pollsters, as is the case with Virginia and Florida. The margins are also smaller, but consistent. PPP (D), which is based in North Carolina, nailed the polling in 2008, but called a tie in NC in 2012, where Romney won by +2.04%, so PPP (D) technically missed the NC call in 2012. Alone the fact that this state is still unbelievably competitive is a bad sign for the GOP. That being said, even the Republican pollsters Gravis and Civitas are showing NC to be extremely competitive. There are no mathematical signs that NC is reverting to it's former "rock-solid" GOP status.

In Ohio, somewhat less polled than the others, there have been 7 polls and 37 matchups, of which Hillary has won 36. And in 16 of those 32 wins, Hillary is winning with double digit margins over her opponents. The last time a Democrat won Ohio with more than a single-digit margin: LBJ, 1964. Before that? FDR, 1936. Both of those elections were massive blowout elections for the Democratic Party. Bill Clinton barely won Ohio in 1992, but he won it by +6 in 1996. Pres. Obama won Ohio by +4.6 in 2008 and by +3 in 2012. There has not been a poll of Ohio since 1988 to show a candidate of any party in double digits. This is an extremely important data point to remember. Again, it's not just one poll or one matchup where she is winning with double digits: it's in 16 matchups spread out over 4 polls. The latest FOX NEWS poll from Ohio, from November 2014, shows her at +10 over Perry, +9 over Paul, +7 over Christie and +4 over Bush, J. I have never before seen so much Ohio polling where the prospective Democratic candidate was so consistently so far ahead. Hillary's numbers are decidedly better than even Bill's numbers during the 1996 campaign.

In Pennsylvania, also one of the less polled states, there have been 8 polls and 34 matchups, Hillary has won 33 of them. And, similar to Ohio, 23 of those 33 wins are double-digits wins. Here, Christie still does the best of the GOP field. Pennsylvania is technically no longer a swing state, having not swung for Pres. George W. Bush (43) in either 2000 or 2004. But it has been a battleground in the last 4 elections, to be sure. A new PPP (D) poll of PA is due to come out in the next days, that will give us another view of how the Keystone State is shaping up.

So, of the Quintifecta, we have four of five states (VA, OH, FL, PA) where, if the double-digit margins hold like we are seeing right now, those states would not even be true battlegrounds on election day 2016.

2.) Clinton is showing considerable strength in some of the so-called "Clinton 6 states". 

The "Clinton 6", as I call them, are the six southern -or- Mason-Dixon states that Bill Clinton won in both 1992 and 1996, states that Pres. Obama never won. They are: WV, KY, MO, AR, LA and TN. I did a write up over this phenomenon in November 2012.

Four of those states have been polled to-date: WV, KY, LA and AR. TN and MO have not yet been polled.

There is only one poll out of West Virginia, but it confirms that the massive Romney landslide victory of 2012 is likely to hold for any Republican in 2016. 

However, in Kentucky, it really could be a horserace (Bill Clinton won the Bluegrass state twice), and in Arkansas (the former home-state of the Clintons), we now have a six poll showing a tight single-digit race. Gravis, a Republican pollster, shows Rand Paul, a native Kentuckian, only three points ahead of Hillary, and he is under the 50-mark.

To note, Mitt Romney won West Virginia by +27 and Arkansas by +24 and also made little-known electoral history in 2012 as being the first Republican ever for whom both of these erstwhile Democratic bastions were called for a Republican immediately at poll closing time on election night, but the Clinton polling here is divergent: she is losing in WV but winningsomewhat in AR. However, she is under 50 in AR, there are lots of undecideds and things could change again. I have personally been thinking that Hillary would have better chances in Missouri, a state where Obama and McCain practically tied in 2008, but Romney won handily in 2012, than in Arkansas. Wait and see.

One of the advantages of such an interesting 2014 mid-term election season is that some states that are rarely polled for presidential elections are getting attention right now, including the great state of Louisiana, which has now been polled 7 times and with 27 matchups, of which Hillary was won 10 matchups and the GOP candidates have won 17. More importantly, in most all matchups, it is a close single-digit race. In the last PPP poll of Louisiana, the margins went from Hillary +4 over Christie to Huckabee +7 over Hillary.

3.) Individual states that had been battlegrounds in 2000, 2004 and to some extent, in 2012, look very solid for Clinton: 

Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico and New Hampshire. 


in the West, also part of a very consistent pattern, Clinton is struggling mightily in Colorado, she has the entire time. If there is a state that the GOP has the best chances of regaining from 2008-2012, it is probably the Rocky Mountain State. Wait and see. There have now been 10 polls of Colorado and 36 matchups, of which Hillary has won 21, the GOP has won 13 and there were two mathematical ties. Then again, polling in Colorado was way off to the Right in 2008, 2010 and 2012. Why? The Latino vote was grossly underestimated and then also grossly miscalculated. Wait and see what happens in 2016 in the Rocky Mountain State.

It also appears to be close in Iowa, but Clinton is winning.

4.) The Bastions:

In the state of New York, an expected blue state, Clinton has margins upwards of +40. The last (and only) time a Democrat won NY with circa +40? LBJ, 1964. 

Likewise, the GOP is easily winning Wyoming, an expected red state, by an average of about +27. George W. Bush (43) won Wyoming with over +40 both times.And Idaho, a barely polled state in Presidential elections, was polled in October 2014, shortly after I published Report V. The results: Paul +19, Huckabee +18, Bush J. +17, Cruz +16 and Christie +11. Those are all, to be sure, landslide margins, only, like Wyoming, Idaho is a traditionally +40 or more state for the GOP.

Now, you might say: "Why quote NY and WY? NY is going to go blue and WY is going to go red!" And I will say: "a rising tide lifts all boats".

Expanded margins for Clinton in expected blue states and suppressed losing margins for her in expected RED states would point to a national win for her.

Speaking of red states, here is a surprise red state for you: KANSAS

In the great state of Kansas, there have now been 7 polls and 25 matchups, of which the GOP has won 24 and Hillary has won 1, but the margins are interesting:

See link for details spreadsheet screenshot
Indeed, in Kansas, it is a narrow single-digit race right now. Is it likely to stay that way? Probably not. But Kansas is supposed to be a +20 to +30 RED state, right on the second tier, below Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Oklahoma as +30-+40 states. Right now, were these numbers to hold, Kansas would be a battleground state.
5.) Speaking of a national win: national polling is overwhelmingly pointing to a large Clinton win:

There have been 55 national polls, with 168 matchups. Hillary Clinton has won 168 (97.02%) of those matchups. Go click on the national polling tab and see for yourself how many of those margins are double digit margins.

Now, varying from pollster to pollster and month to month, one GOPer may come closer to Clinton than the others, but she beats them all, consistently. And this data is coming from many various and independent-from-each-other pollsters. The most recent national poll, Hillary vs. a number of GOP contenders, from CNN/ORC, released on 12/208/2014, shows Hillary at landslide margins of: +13 over Bush, J., +15 over Ryan, +17 over Christie, +20 over Paul and+25 over Cruz. And the WAPO/ABC poll released just today shows Hillary at +17 over Huckabee. An average of those 6 polling values: Hillary +17.8. The last time we saw these kinds of national margins for a Democrat: LBJ, 1964.

6.) My wish-list: 

There are some states for which we have no data right now and it would be very enlightening to get some data from such states as, for instance, Missouri, which used to be quite a bellwether state in our Union (until 2008), and Nevada, which was considered a battleground in 2008 and in 2012. Also, from the 9.25 Obama pick-ups from 2008, it would be good to see data from Indiana, which went for Obama by +1.03% and then swung back to the Republicans with Romney and was won by +10.20 in 2012. However, Indiana has been traditionally a solid +20 RED state, so indeed it would be interesting to see how Hillary does in rural areas in such a state. My wish would also to see more polling outside of PPP (D) and Quinnipiac. Also, Obama won Nebraska-02 in 2008, it would be interesting to see how Hillary is doing in the congressional district this time around.


Facit: it's Hillary's election to have, if she wants it. If she declares (and I am more than reasonably sure she will declare), then she is the prohibitive front runner both for her party's nomination and also against any and all comers from the GOP.

Factors working against the GOP are the fact that Obama literally cemented Virginia into the Democratic column by winning the state not just once, but twice, against all conventional wisdom, and current polling is showing this state to be a solidly blue state. This GOP is going to have to fight to regain this state, which means less time, money and resources for other states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Another factor against the GOP was the wild swing of Cuban-American voters in Florida from the GOP to Obama in 2012. The assumption is that this was due to the ongoing immigration debate. Another factor is the name "Clinton", where both Hillary and former President Bill Clinton are extremely well-known to the American public and in spite of the Lewinski scandal, Bill Clinton is still quite respected among the American public. Only Jeb Bush makes Florida competitive, the other prospective GOPers lag considerable behind, including Marco Rubio. But what Jeb Bush can maybe do in Florida, he cannot do in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Virginia, at least that's what the current numbers show.

If Hillary only wins the states that were common DEM states between Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, then she is already at 290 EV (shown in the Clinton 6 link above, here is the link again). I see a real possibility for Hillary Clinton to go slightly over 400 EV in 2016. States like Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, South Dakota and even Alaska could become battlegrounds. North Carolina WILL be a battleground.

Those are the current polling statistics. Update in May/June 2015. 

Full disclosure: I am a Clinton supporter, but were the numbers to be showing the GOP running away with this race, I would report it with exactly the same veracity.


Number of matchups between Republican candidates and Hillary, by state:

Christie: National 36, Alaska 6, Arizona 1, Arkansas 3, Colorado 9, Connecticut 1, Florida 8, Georgia 2, Idaho 1, Iowa 13, Kansas 4, Kentucky 2, Louisiana 4, Maine 1, Michigan 8, Minnesota 2, Mississippi 2, Montana 2, New Hampshire 6, New Jersey 12, New Mexico 1, New York 9, North Carolina 12, Ohio 7, Oregon 1, Pennsylvania 6, Texas 4, Virginia 12, West Virginia 1, Wisconsin 4, Wyoming 1 / Total: 181

Paul: National 29, Alaska 5, Arizona 1, Arkansas 3, Colorado 8, Connecticut 1, Florida 8, Georgia 2, Idaho 1, Iowa 14, Kansas 6, Kentucky 6, Louisiana 4, Maine 1, Maryland 1, Michigan 6, Minnesota 1, Mississippi 2, Montana 4, New Hampshire 6, New Jersey 5, New Mexico 2, New York 9, North Carolina 15, Ohio 7, Oregon 1, Pennsylvania 6, Texas 2, Virginia 11, West Virginia 1, Wisconsin 3, Wyoming 1 / Total: 172

Bush: National 29, Alaska 5, Arizona 1, Arkansas 3, Colorado 5, Connecticut 1, Florida 14, Georgia 2, Idaho 1, Iowa 13, Kansas 6, Kentucky 2, Louisiana 4, Maine 1, Maryland 1, Michigan 5, Minnesota 1, Mississippi 2, Montana 5, New Hampshire 6, New Jersey 5, New Mexico 2, New York 2, North Carolina 12, Ohio 5, Oregon 1, Pennsylvania 5, Texas 4, Virginia 3, West Virginia 1, Wisconsin 2, Wyoming 1 / Total: 150

Cruz: National 19, Alaska 1, Arkansas 2, Colorado 6, Connecticut 1, Florida 6, Georgia 1, Idaho 1, Iowa 7, Kansas 3, Kentucky 2, Louisiana 2, Maine 1, Michigan 4, Minnesota 1, Mississippi 2, Montana 2, New Hampshire 3, New Mexico 1, North Carolina 5, Ohio 3, Oregon 1, Pennsylvania 4, Texas 4, Virginia 3, West Virginia 1, Wisconsin 2 / Total: 88

Ryan: National 16, Alaska 1, Colorado 2, Florida 6, Georgia 2, Iowa 6, Kansas 1, Louisiana 2, Maryland 1, Michigan 2, Montana 4, New Hampshire 1, New Jersey 1, New York 1, Ohio 4, Pennsylvania 3, Virginia 5, West Virginia 1, Wisconsin 7, Wyoming 1 / Total: 67

Rubio: National 16, Alaska 2, Colorado 2, Florida 14, Georgia 1, Iowa 6, Kansas 1, Kentucky 2, Louisiana 1, Michigan 2, Minnesota 1, Montana 1, New Hampshire 3, North Carolina 1, Ohio 3, Pennsylvania 2, Texas 1, Virginia 5, Wisconsin 2, Wyoming 1 / Total: 67

Huckabee: National 10, Alaska 4, Arizona 1, Arkansas 3, Colorado 4, Connecticut 1, Florida 3, Georgia 1, Idaho 1, Iowa 6, Kansas 4, Kentucky 1, Louisiana 3, Michigan 3, Minnesota 1, Mississippi 1, New Hampshire 1, New Jersey 1, New Mexico 1, North Carolina 8, Ohio 1, Oregon 1, Pennsylvania 2, Texas 1, Virginia 2, Wisconsin 1 / Total: 66

Perry: National 3, Florida 1, Ohio 1, Texas 4 / Total: 9

Palin: National 2, Alaska 6, Georgia 1 / Total: 9

Romney: National 4, Florida 1, Iowa 1, New Jersey 1 / Total: 7

Santorum: National 1, Pennsylvania 6 / Total: 7

Carson: National 2, North Carolina 1 / Total: 3


Walker: Iowa 3, New Hampshire 1, Virginia 1, Wisconsin 5 / Total: 10

Jindal: Iowa 1, Louisiana 7 / Total: 8

Kasich: Ohio 6
McDonnell: Virginia 3
Gingrich: Georgia 3
Haley: Montana 2
Pence: Iowa 1
Pawlenty: Minnesota 1
Bachmann: Minnesota 1
Ayotte: New Hampshire 1
Martinez: New Mexico 1
Brewer: Arizona 1
generic: Arkansas 1, California 1,

These numbers do not include matchups from the Latino-decisions polling.

The only state that was polled but with no matchup for Christie: Maryland

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