The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Thursday, December 7, 2017

Tax Plan Most Do Not Want

Allow a few minutes for a quick review of the GOP tax plans. MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle offers a great reminder of how the tax plans work against the middle class. 

Ruhle analysis is a stark reality, especially when we have multiple and credible reporting, the public has little to no interest in a GOP tax cut (which is really a well-disguised tax increase on those who make less).

Nate Silver's 538 Blog and other related political surveys find and report a total lack of interest in GOP plans.  We suspect the nation really does have a sense of who in the nation will benefit from tax cuts.  
About a third of voters currently support the Republican tax reform package, according to an average of five surveys released1 this month. In a Quinnipiac University survey, just 25 percent of voters approved of the plan. Surveys from ABC News/Washington PostCNNMorning Consult and YouGov put approval of the plan slightly higher, but all are still at 36 percent or lower. Meanwhile, an average of the five polls puts opposition at 46 percent.
Quinnipiac University Survey

November 15, 2017 - Latest Massacre Drives Gun Control Support To New High, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Reject GOP Tax Plan 2-1


American voters disapprove 52 - 25 percent of the Republican tax plan. Republican voters approve 60 - 15 percent, with 26 percent undecided. All other party, gender, education, age and racial groups disapprove.  
The wealthy would mainly benefit from this tax plan, 61 percent of American voters say, while 24 percent say the middle class will mainly benefit and 6 percent say low-income people would mainly benefit.  
American voters say 59 - 33 percent that the Republican tax plan favors the rich at the expense of the middle class.  
Only 16 percent of American voters say the Republican tax plan will reduce their taxes, while 35 percent of voters say it will increase their taxes and 36 percent say it won't have much impact on their taxes.  
Only 36 percent of voters believe the GOP tax plan will lead to an increase in jobs and economic growth, while 52 percent do not believe it.  
American voter opinions on some of the elements of the Republican tax plan are:
  • 49 - 45 percent that lowering the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent is a bad idea;
  • 58 - 30 percent that doubling the standard deduction is a good idea;
  • 59 - 30 percent that eliminating the deduction for state and local income taxes is a bad idea;
  • 48 - 43 percent that eliminating the estate tax is a good idea.
"The sentiment from voters: The GOP tax plan is a great idea, if you are rich. Otherwise, you're out of luck," Malloy said.
If we revisit the 538 piece we find a graphic which clears shows such tax cuts are not popular and the cuts actually do not provide political leverage of pushing for such cuts.  

The GOP’s tax bill is historically unpopular

1981GallupReagan tax cut I51%26%+25
2001HarrisW. Bush tax cut I4937+12
2010ABC/WaPoExtending Bush tax cuts I5442+12
2013ABC/WaPoExtending Bush tax cuts II4538+7
2003HarrisW. Bush tax cut II4539+6
1986CBS/NYTReagan tax cut II3834+4
1993GallupClinton tax hike3444-10
1990Voter News ServiceH.W. Bush tax hike4152-11
2017November average*Trump tax cut3246-14

*Average of surveys by CNN, Quinnipiac University, Morning Consult, ABC/WaPo and YouGov. 
Note: The polls included in this table used different question wording, including variations on “support,” “approve” and “favor,” as well as “oppose” “disapprove” and “vote down.”

Alas, the GOP doesn't give a damn about public sentiment. Is there a surprise there? In 2014 data indicates the majority of members of Congress (House and Senate) are millionaires.


The Center for Responsive Politics analyzed the personal financial disclosure data from 2012 of the 534 current members of Congress and found that, for the first time, more than half had an average net worth of $1 million or more: 268 to be exact, up from 257 the year earlier.Jan 9, 2014
The wealthy benefit from any GOP tax plan for the first moment of presidential signature.  Do we have yet another case of millionaires left in charge of boatloads of unguarded money?

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