The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Sunday, September 30, 2018

Fifty-Five Percent Of Republicans Don't Care About Possible Sexual Abuse (Economist/YouGov





Image result for sexual abuse

The Economist has published a You/Gov poll which is a comprehensive set of polling regarding the Trump administration and matters critical to current events in the United States. The poll was published via a pdf document and covers 385 pages (including methodology information embedded in the box below.

The Economist/YouGov Poll

September 23 - 25, 2018
1500 US Adults 
Sponsorship The Economist 
Fieldwork YouGov 
Interviewing Dates September 23 - 25, 2018
Target population US Adult Population

Sampling method: 
Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in Internet panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2014 American Community Study. Voter registration was imputed from the November 2014 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting Supplement. 

Weighting: 
The sample was weighted based on gender, age, race, education, and 2016 

Presidential vote (or non-vote). 

The weights range from 0.271 to 4.091, with a mean of one and a standard deviation of 0.557. 

Number of respondents 1500 
1238 (Registered voters) 

Margin of error ± 2.9% (adjusted for weighting) ± 2.9% (Registered voters) Survey mode Web-based interviews Questions not reported 29 questions not reported.

As stated above the poll result are extensive. We have focused on one issue related to current political issues which have the attention of millions across America: Brett Kavanaugh and Donald Trump.

Actually, we page copied and paste below a stark and reveal page from the survey YouGov found 55% of the survey respondents who identified as "GOP simply do not care if Kavanagh has sexually assaulted a girl or woman during the course of his life. 


The survey was performed with 1500 respondents (1238 Registered voters) while it was an "Online" Poll.  


YouGov is a favored poll. while it sits just to the Left of neutral regarding bias, YouGov consistent ranks towards the high end of preferred and reliable polling.

As is our practice whenever we post regarding polling we ink to The 538 Blog and its survey Reliability data. YouGov received a "B" Rating following its polling leading up to the 2016 General Election.  In May of this year, 538 published "Most Trusted in Polling" results.

Below we posted a table from the "Most Trusted" article. While a bit of reading is involved we highly encourage you to read a few paragraphs which preceded the image table (below).

How prolific pollsters have fared in recent elections
Advanced Plus-Minus scores for pollsters’ surveys conducted for elections on Nov. 8, 2016, and later

POLLSTERMETHODOLOGYNO. OF POLLSAVG. ERRORADVANCED PLUS-MINUSBIAS
Monmouth UniversityLive244.8-1.5D+3.9
Emerson CollegeIVR514.1-1.0D+1.2
Siena CollegeLive184.0-0.9D+1.5
Landmark CommunicationsIVR/online144.4-0.6D+4.3
Marist CollegeLive173.7-0.6D+1.5
LucidOnline142.6-0.4D+2.4
SurveyUSAIVR/online/live184.5-0.2D+1.0
Trafalgar GroupIVR/online/live154.0-0.1R+0.8
YouGovOnline334.3+0.0D+2.8
Opinion SavvyIVR/online114.3+0.1D+2.8
Quinnipiac UniversityLive264.4+0.1D+4.2
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchIVR/online555.1+0.4D+3.6
CNN/Opinion Research Corp.Live104.3+0.6D+1.4
Gravis MarketingIVR/online534.6+0.7D+2.5
Remington Research GroupIVR/live324.9+0.8D+2.1
Public Policy PollingIVR/online285.2+1.0D+5.2
SurveyMonkeyOnline1957.3+2.3D+5.6
University of New HampshireLive198.9+3.4D+8.9
Google SurveysOnline128.4+5.0D+1.8






Negative plus-minus scores are good and indicate that the pollster has had less error than other pollsters in similar types of races.
The “average error” is the difference between the polled result and the actual result for the margin separating the top two finishers in the race.
“Bias” is a pollster’s average statistical bias toward Democratic or Republican candidates.
What does it all mean? As Trump's SCOTUS pick, Kavanaugh, develops 55% for those who ID'd as GOP don't give a damn if the Judge molested Dr. Ford.

All things considered, respondents among 1500 (or 1238) who have party affiliation with the GOP, echoed 2016 polling data two days after the 2016 elections. 

NOTE: The following formatting has been left intact to ensure full viewing.

538


                                                                                                                Hillary Clinton
                                                                         DEMOCRAT
Donald J. Trump
REPUBLICAN
             Change        from 2012*

Sex

Male
Data not available
41%
53%
5
Female
Data not available
54%
42%
1

Race

White
Data not available
37%
58%
1
Black
Data not available
88%
8%
7
Hispanic/Latino
Data not available
65%
29%
8
Asian
Data not available
65%
29%
11
Other
Data not available
56%
37%
1

Age

18-29
Data not available
55%
37%
5
30-44
Data not available
50%
42%
1
45-64
Data not available
44%
53%
5
65 and over
Data not available
45%
53%
4

Education

High school or less
Data not available
45%
51%

Some college/associate degree
Data not available
43%
52%
10
College graduate
Data not available
49%
45%
8
Postgraduate study
Data not available
58%
37%
8

Education by race

White college graduates
Data not available
45%
49%
10
White without a college degree
Data not available
28%
67%
14
Nonwhite college graduates
Data not available
71%
23%

Nonwhite without a college degree
Data not available
75%
20%

Income

Under $30,000
Data not available
53%
41%
16
$30,000 - $49,999
Data not available
51%
42%
6
$50,000 - $99,999
Data not available
46%
50%
2
$100,000 - $199,999
Data not available
47%
48%
9
$200,000 - $249,999
Data not available
48%
49%

$250,000 or more
Data not available
46%
48%

Residence

City over 50,000
Data not available
59%
35%

Suburbs
Data not available
45%
50%

Small city or rural
Data not available
34%
62%

Party affiliation

Democrat
Data not available
89%
9%
5
Republican
Data not available
7%
90%
4
Independent or something else
Data not available
42%
48%
1

Reality is reality and the messages from the various polls and surveys isn't a pretty picture for conservative America.  Do they really not care if a man has, in his past, committed sexual abuse?

Reliable and unbiased survey data doesn't impart a lie.

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