The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.

Monday, March 18, 2019

As Trump's World Turns: The POLLS?




Marquee Scroll>57 Percent Want A New Leader In The White House

Trump at one time-loved to quote "the polls" or "the ratings".  We haven't heard those words form the nation's 45th President in many months. Every wonder why?

Maybe a recent poll leads us to an answer.


In May 2018 the FiveThirtyEight Blog( Nate Silver) published what follows.

Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018

How prolific pollsters have fared in recent elections
Advanced Plus-Minus scores for pollsters’ surveys conducted for elections on Nov. 8, 2016, and later
POLLSTERMETHODOLOGYNO. OF POLLSAVG. ERRORADVANCED PLUS-MINUSBIAS
Monmouth UniversityLive244.8-1.5D+3.9
Emerson CollegeIVR514.1-1.0D+1.2
Siena CollegeLive184.0-0.9D+1.5
Landmark CommunicationsIVR/online144.4-0.6D+4.3
Marist CollegeLive173.7-0.6D+1.5
LucidOnline142.6-0.4D+2.4
SurveyUSAIVR/online/live184.5-0.2D+1.0
Trafalgar GroupIVR/online/live154.0-0.1R+0.8
YouGovOnline334.3+0.0D+2.8
Opinion SavvyIVR/online114.3+0.1D+2.8
Quinnipiac UniversityLive264.4+0.1D+4.2
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchIVR/online555.1+0.4D+3.6
CNN/Opinion Research Corp.Live104.3+0.6D+1.4
Gravis MarketingIVR/online534.6+0.7D+2.5
Remington Research GroupIVR/live324.9+0.8D+2.1
Public Policy PollingIVR/online285.2+1.0D+5.2
SurveyMonkeyOnline1957.3+2.3D+5.6
University of New HampshireLive198.9+3.4D+8.9
Google SurveysOnline128.4+5.0D+1.8
Negative plus-minus scores are good and indicate that the pollster has had less error than other pollsters in similar types of races.
The “average error” is the difference between the polled result and the actual result for the margin separating the top two finishers in the race.
“Bias” is a pollster’s average statistical bias toward Democratic or Republican candidates. 
The best of these pollsters over this period has been Monmouth University, which has an Advanced Plus-Minus score of -1.5. That’s not a huge surprise — Monmouth was already one of our highest-rated pollsters. After that, the list is somewhat eclectic, including traditional, live-caller pollsters such as Siena College and Marist College, as well as automated pollsters such as Emerson College and Landmark Communications. Polling institutes run by colleges and universities are somewhat overrepresented among the high performers on the list and have generally become a crucial source of polling as other high-quality pollsters have fallen by the wayside.
Data, when applied without bias, is irrefutable.  Let's see how Nate Silver's data shows in 2020.

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