The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label Show all posts
Showing posts with label Show all posts

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

COMPLETE 2015 Graph: 32 Million People (Charles Gaba)

ACASignUPs.Net  (Charles Gaba)

The COMPLETE 2015 Graph: 32 Million People, One Image File

Yesterday, the New York Times posted an infographic depicting the breakout of insurance coverage for everyone in the country, based entirely on my data. The grand total of ACA-specific health insurance coverage topped out at around 31.4 million, but left out close to a million people due to rounding and to deliberately leaving out a few items (such as people enrolled in small business coverage via the SHOP exchanges, which I estimate to be around 220,000 people nationally).
Today, I'm posting my own "complete" ACA graph...which will be familiar to anyone who was following this site last year. In 2014 I tried to display every form of ACA coverage on a single graph (exchange QHPs, off-exchange, Medicaid expansion, woodworkers, SHOP...the works). It became too cumbersome for everyday use, so I split Medicaid/CHIP off onto their own graph and simplified the rest.
However, now that every state (except for Idaho) has been updated through at least February 15th, here, once again, is the complete 2015 ACA enrollment graph, showing the rough breakout of all 32.3 million people whose current healthcare coverage is either wholly or partly due specifically to the Affordable Care Act.
Again, that does not mean that all 32.3 million were uninsured to begin with. By my best estimates based on the available data, I estimate that around 19 million already had some form of insurance coverage. Around 11 million were uninsured prior to January 2014, and around another 2 million were uninsured prior to January 2015.
UPDATE: Regarding the "Sub26ers" (19-25 year olds allowed to stay on their parents' policy thanks to the ACA): Many of these are already counted in other categories at this point. Many, however, are included in Employer Sponsored Insurance policies (not listed here). Unfortunately, this number was always very hard to pin down to begin with, and there were some policies in some states which already allowed 19-26ers to stay on their policies even before the ACA. As a result, this year I've completely abandoned trying to even keep track of it. However, they're definitely out there.
I should also note that earlier today I posted a long-term projection which looks at how the rest of 2015 should play out...assuming that the Supreme Court DOESN'T gut tax credits, that is.


Sunday, August 31, 2014

Affordable Care Act Sign-ups And Paid

An Affordable Care Act update from Charles Gaba...and "The Graph." (ACASignups.Net)

The Graph, Updated: PAID QHPs should have broken 8 Million at last! (9.2M total)


Thursday, March 27, 2014

Chris Hayes, Jennifer Stefano, AFP, ObamaCare


As the Obama Administration has granted 15 additional days for enrollment in the Affordable Care Act, it should be no surprise GOP derangement is over the top.

Chris Hayes, MSNBC, ALL IN made the mistake of booking a guest who is an executive of the Koch Brothers Americans for Prosperity (AFP). What you are about to see could supplant the most classless and crass Jerry Springer staged "fool spectacles."  


I introduce AFP's Jennifer Stefano.  Warning! After viewing first three quarters of the segment you will know two things. You will know why it is important to fight Koch takeover of our society and, more important, you will see why the old Springer show fell out of vogue with millions. Actually, you will know a third item. You will have witnessed the level of communication and the type of video segment that will go viral on conservative social media and websites. In fact, you might even think of a Bill O'Reilly finger-pointing yelling segment from Fox News.

Visit for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
Stefano yelled seven million Americans had suffered insurance policy cancellations. As of march 6th, 2014, Charles Gaba, a very reliable ACA tracking source addressed reports of a lesser number of cancellations: reports of five million. 
Since Stefano snapped and yelled about seven million cancellations you might want to read this short piece from the Gaga webpage. As you read the piece know that Gaba is writing in response to a critique of his 'dead-on' accurate enrollment tracking. You have to know the Kochs are not to sit idly-by and watch Gaba's tracking without dispatching a "data-assassin."

Since you may not have visited the Gaba link above, I am posting a segment of the screed that addresses Stefano seven million cancellations.
Well, I forgot about one more thing: Not all of those 4.8 million "cancelled" policies were actually cancelled. 
Another commentor, danslabyrinth, reminded me that thanks to President Obama and HHS announcing their "grandfathering" policy which extended the deadline for existing non-compliant plans by a year (and, more recently, by another two years, to as far out as the end of 2016), this 4.8 million figure has already been vastly reduced. By how much?
Well, according to this article about the additional 2-year extension, 1.5 million people never had their policies cancelled after all (or at least, they had them reinstated after originally being cancelled, anyway): 
It's not clear how many people will actually be affected by the most closely watched provision of the new regulations, the two-year extension on policies that were previously subject to cancellation. The administration cites a congressional estimate of 1.5 million, counting individual plans and small business policies. 
About half the states have allowed insurance companies to extend canceled policies for a year under the original White House reprieve. The policies usually provided less financial protection and narrower benefits than the coverage required under the law. Nonetheless, the skimpier insurance was acceptable to many consumers because it generally cost less. 

"It's not likely to affect a large number of people but it certainly avoids difficult anecdotes about people having their policies canceled," said Larry Levitt of the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation, an expert on insurance markets. "I think it's a small and dwindling number of people who are affected." 
Now, that 1.5 million figure isn't given as solid...but then again, neither is the 5 million figure (I've heard the number claimed being as low as 4.7 million or as high as 6 million, but the 6M sources are, to put it mildly, a bit shakey to say the least). 
UPDATE: Thanks to Tim Dickinson for pointing me towards the source of the "1.5 Million UNcancelled Policies" estimate...which is actually the same updated CBO report which lowered the exchange QHP estimate from 7M to 6M: 
In November 2013, the Administration announced that state insurance commissioners could give health insurers the option of allowing individuals and small businesses to re-enroll in coverage that did not comply with certain market and benefit rules, such as the prohibition against adjusting premiums based on health status, that were scheduled to take effect in January 2014. CBO and JCT estimate that, as a result, roughly 11⁄2 million people in the individual and small-group markets will renew policies in 2014 that are not compliant with those rules. In addition, because subscribers may renew such coverage between January and October of 2014, CBO and JCT estimate that half a million people will continue to be enrolled in noncompliant policies in 2015.  
So, here's what I'm willing to do: Since 5M is the most-cited figure, I'm willing to use that. And since 1.5 million appears to be the maximum number that have taken the administration up on their extension offer, I'm even willing to knock a couple hundred thousand off of that in the interests of being, shall we say, "conservative".
This means that we can subtract 1.3 million from 5 million, leaving 3.7 million people who genuinely had to replace their existing non-compliant health insurance policy with a fully-compliant one...via either the ACA Exchanges or off-exchange, directly through the insurance companies.
And as I explained yesterday, until I know how many of those 3.7 million replaced their policy off-exchange instead of on the exchanges, I have no way of knowing how many to "subtract" from the graph and therefore can't do so.
The AFP executive spent the last two minutes of her on-camera appearance deflecting from a potentially intelligent point-counter-point with a typical Fox News-like performance. Stefano successfully deployed the very technique used by Mitt Romney to disarm a scantily prepared and (appearing) reticent Barack Obama during their first debate. Romney deployed the Gish Gallop debate technique via overwhelming Obama with machine gun-like issues and comments laced with either half-truths or outright lies. I suggest based on reading in preparation for this piece, Stefano also threw veracity on the floor of the host studio.
The Gish Gallop
Named after creationist Duane Gish, is the debating technique of drowning the opponent in such a torrent of half-truths, lies, and straw-man arguments that the opponent cannot possibly answer every falsehood in real time. The term was coined by Eugenie Scott of the National Center for Science Education. 
She spoke repeatedly of how Hayes, "did not know her," while reminding of many of the Springer Show segments. Yet, the one thing she left for all to see and hear. Other than the Fox News Network, we now know her and we know she is very much not fit for prime-time appearances on national television.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

ACA Enrollment Pace Is Up! (UPDATE 12.25 - 12/31 Enrollments)

GOP members of Congress, surrogates and pundits are conspicuously silent about the ACA. Of course, we continue to hear dire predictions about "ObamaCare" from Right-wing Media (Fox News et al) and on occasion for the more zany in the party (Palin, etc), yet the party has moved on to other issues. Paul Ryan intimated a few weeks back the GOP would wreck the US economy over issues related to the debt ceiling.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will one day settle into US History with full accolades to President Obama and the Democratic Party. The ACA website, after weeks of emergency development, is reported to have reached full functionality. The White House is expressing confidence about site utility and performance; we remain cautious as any website is susceptible to malfunction and, frankly, susceptible to Right-wing terrorist attacks against health care reform. 

Malfunctions or website terrorist attacks aside, enrollment has spiked during the month of December. ACA website rework was accomplished around November 30th. Increased opportunity for enrollment via the website has led to ACA watchers suggesting the December deadline for January 1, coverage and anticipated interest from the under insured or non-insured are contributing to the enrollment spike. We would be serious remiss if we did not acknowledge another indicator of increased enrollment numbers.

Let's that a look at ACA enrollment data from a person who uses the pseudonym of Brainwrap. We will admit the developers brain has to be wrapped around an affinity for data and charts; his work is without equal. Even the very "chart-geek" Ezra Klein has linked to Brainwrap's spreadsheet and charts.

(NOTE: We realize the following require a bit of concentration and a willingness grasp a non media view of the ACA experience. You can watch CNN and Fox with their daily "disappointment" updates, or you can help spread the word for the good of the national. In order to spread the word, we have to invest a bit of time and effort as high information people.)

ACA Pivate Enrollments Pass 228,000; over 950,000 with Medicaid/SCHIP

by  on NOVEMBER 26, 2013 in OBAMACARE
(Brainwrap's spreadsheet linked)

Since the day that the ACA (aka Obamacare) health insurance exchanges launched on October 1st, I’ve been tracking the number of applications, enrollments and Medicaid/SCHIP expansion signups at Obviously the first few weeks were, shall we say, rocky. In addition to the now infamous website problems, reporting on the numbers was all over the map as well, with many “serious” journalists confusing “accounts created” with “applications started”, “applications completed”, “plans selected” and so on. 

In addition, many sources confused private exchange enrollments with Medicaid/SCHIP expansion enrollments. Both numbers are important, of course, because each represents people who either didn’t have any healthcare coverage before at all or had crappy coverage (in a few cases, such as myself, they have a decent plan but one which needs a few tweaks to be compliant with the law). 

In any event, just as the Healthcare.Gov website has been majorly modified and improved, so too has (aka, if you’d prefer). All numbers since the first official HHS report was released (which gave the true numbers through 11/2/13) are fully sourced are now separated out by actual private exchange enrollments and Medicaid/SCHIP enrollments for the individual states. 

In addition, I’ve added graphical charts showing both the ACA Private Exchange enrollments as well as a comparison against the Massachusetts enrollment pattern of 2007.’s the latest figures as of Monday, Nov. 25:
Total Exchange ENROLLMENTS: 228,578
Total Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 728,210
Total Combined: 956,788

Obamacare Friday Update: 430K 

Private Enrollments; 1.6 Million 


A couple of weeks ago I posted a detailed analysis of how Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) enrollments are going so far. Starting today, every Friday I’ll be posting updated numbers here at Eclectablog. Full details can be viewed daily at
Roughly 27,000 Americans signed up for insurance on the federal exchange on Tuesday, according to internal figures, bringing the site’s three-day enrollment total to 56,000. That figure is more than double the number who enrolled online in the entire month of October, which was almost 27,000.
Needless to say, I’ve been scrambling to bring the spreadsheet up to speed this morning:
Read more via title above 

Obamacare Friday Update: 680K Private, 2.5M Total & Rising FAST

A couple of weeks ago I posted a detailed analysis of how Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) enrollments are going so far. Starting today, every Friday I’ll be posting updated numbers here at Eclectablog. Full details can be viewed daily at
In a comment from a Mother Jones article about Obamacare enrollments, I received the highest praise I could ever hope for:
“During the ’12 election, I compulsively consulted…Now I compulsively consult”
I’m honored beyond words.
I’m also extremely happy to report that thanks to California finally updating their official numbers (partly spoiled by yesterday’s November HHS Report), the official tally has shattered through the 600K mark, and now stands at:
Private Plan Enrollments: 679,743

Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 1,829,180

Total: 2,508,923 
Meanwhile, check out the trend/projection line, which has jumped from around 3.7 million up to around 4.2 million by 3/31/14.
 This is both bad and good. The bad news is that the CBO projection for the end of the enrollment period–which was never declared a “requirement for success” by the HHS Dept. but which has, nonetheless, become etched in stone to the media and public at large as being a “must achieve” figure–is 7 million private plan enrollments, leaving the ACA exchanges 2.8 million short at this point.
Read more via title above 

ACA Enrollments through 12/10/13

Obamacare Signups Friday: 970K (or 1.3M) private enrollments; 3.3M Total

Every Friday I posting the latest enrollment figures for the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) here at Eclectablog. Full details can be viewed daily at 
This has been the craziest week yet for, and the past day or so, things went into overdrive. 
If November had an Obamacare surge, consider this the December deluge. California averaged 15,000 daily enrollments early last week, about double the sign-ups the state had in early December. New York is now seeing about 4,500 residents choosing plans each day and, in Connecticut, the number is hovering around 1,400.
Read more via title above 

December 26, 2013......(Spreadsheet)
Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) Signups/Applications (w/Medicaid Expansion)

by Brainwrap   •   If you're having trouble viewing, try this link instead
IMPORTANT: Data prior to the 11/13/13 HHS Dept. report includes Applications; data after that only includes actual enrollments.

We anticipate official enrollment number from the White House in early January. Most writers and reporters indicated the pace of enrollment, if not stepped-up, will fall shy of the artificially set Seven million enrolled by March 31, 2014. 

The Congressional Budget Office prediction of seven million enrollees by march 31, is important, and may be elusive. Health and Human Services have moved attention to the demographic mix of enrollees vs. 'raw numbers' of enrollees.

CBS News
In mid-December, a Health and Human Services Official insisted the agency is "on track" to meet its 7 million enrollment goal and expects most people to sign up at the end of the open enrollment period. At the same time, the administration has shifted the focus from the raw enrollment figures to the demographic makeup of the marketplace. 
"What we need is the right mix of individuals in these individual exchanges," White House deputy press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters in mid-December. "My point is, you can't evaluate the success or failure of the Affordable Care Act based solely on the number of people who sign up all across the country. What you should do to evaluate the success of the program is to consider the mix of people who have signed up in each of the individual marketplaces." 
So far, the administration hasn't released any demographic information about Obamacare enrollees. 
The correct "mix" includes a sufficient portion of younger, healthier people -- a portion equal to their representation in the overall pool of potential individual market enrollees. That would mean about 40 percent of the market should be younger, healthier enrollees; in a market of 7 million, that's 2.8 million. 
The concern has been that if only older, sicker people join Obamacare, the costs of covering that market would leader to higher premiums. That would, in turn, prompt even more healthy people to leave the market, leading to the dreaded "death spiral." The death spiral is unlikely to happen in large part because of mechanisms built into the Affordable Care Act to prevent that. In fact, even if far fewer young, healthy people sign up than expected, the impact on the Obamacare markets would be relatively minimal, some argue.
All said, we are certain the Administration will be nothing shy of ecstatic if enrollments continue any where near the December pace.

Over the next few weeks, we will be watching Brainwrap's developer as surely as night turns to day.

UPDATE: 12/25/2013 - 12/31/2013 Partial Data