The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label Charles Gaba. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Charles Gaba. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

ObamaCare Enrollment 2015...C/O Charles Gaba....30 Million!

ACA Signup Dot Net

30 Million (or, it's a lot more than just exchange QHPs)

  • Off-exchange policies which were compliant with the new law;
  • People who were already eligible for traditional Medicaid prior to expansion (and in non-expansion states) but who were only "drawn out of the woodwork" to sign up thanks to outreach efforts, educational programs and streamlining of the enrollment process in many states
  • People who were transferred over from other existing low-income state-run healthcare programs (often with shaky funding) into Medicaid proper;
  • Enrollees in small business policies via the ACA's SHOP program (granted, this never ended up being more than a rounding error...less than 80K total)
  • Young adults aged 19 - 25 who were allowed to stay on their parent's plan thanks specifically to the ACA
When I added all of these up, the grand total ended up being somewhere between 24 - 29 million people, depending on your definition of what should "count" or not (some feel that "woodworker" Medicaid enrollees shouldn't be counted; others felt that the "Sub26er" number was actually lower than the number touted by the HHS Dept, etc).
This year, I've overhauled and simplified The Graph quite a bit:
  • First, I separated out Medicaid/CHIP onto a 2nd Graph to avoid confusion.
  • Second, I decided to scrap the "Sub26er" category completely; not only was the hard number a bit squirrelly, but the nature of the provision means that most of those who would be counted in this category are already being counted as QHP enrollees anyway, either on or off of the exchanges.
  • Third, since the SHOP numbers were so tiny anyway, I decided not to bother including them unless I saw evidence that they were more than a sliver; so far it doesn't look like this is the case this year either.
  • Finally, while I've been writing about off-exchange enrollments quite a bit lately, I never got around to actually adding them into the Graph mix.
All that being said, if I add everything up together, just how many people are enrolled in their current policies due to the Affordable Care Act or related provisions?
  • Exchange QHPs: Around 9.4 million paid enrollees (this should go up another 1.6 million when the dust settles on open enrollment)
  • OFF-exchange QHPs: Around 7.4 million paid enrollees (this should also go up around another 900K or so)
  • Medicaid/CHIP due to the ACA: 10 million (strict expansion: around 9 million; bulk transfers: around 950K)
  • Medicaid/CHIP "woodworkers": Around 3.3 million
  • SHOP/miscellaneous: No idea, really...not more than 200K or so, I'd imagine.
Add up all of the above and you get over 30 million people if you include the 3.3 million woodworkers. Even if you don't include them, if I prove accurate with my final surge projection, there should be about another 1.6 million exchange enrollees/900K more off-exchange added over the next week, plus hundreds of thousands more Medicaid expansion enrollees throughout the year (no deadline for Medicaid, remember?). Realistically, 30.2 million at a minimum.
Consider this: That's 10% of the entire country in the first 4 years.
UPDATE: I've also re-combined the QHP & Medicaid graphs back into a single image, along with off-exchange QHPs and SHOP (such as it is), assuming my projections through 2/15 hold true. The result will look familiar to anyone who followed the original graph last year:

The Graphs

ACA EXCHANGE Qualified Health Policy (QHP) Enrollments:
ACA-Enabled MEDICAID/CHIP Enrollments:

And, the GOP would taketh away for the like of a Koch.  The Pardu

Saturday, January 17, 2015

GOP Charges Out Of The Stalls With First Attack On ObamaCare

obamacare sign ups

On January 14th, the new buoyed GOP infestation of both Houses of Congress saw its first (official) bill aimed at repealing the Affordable Care Act. After declaring repealing the Affordable Care Act "a real possibility", Louisiana Senator David (Of Questionable Character) Vitter introduced a set of bills with ultimate goal of hacking away at legislation that has provided medical coverage for millions without coverage or who suffered through high risk (deductible) coverage. 
Vitter's out-of-the-gate bills via  his web site.....
Obamacare Repeal – would fully repeal President Obama’s entire health care bill today.

Sponsored by Senator David Vitter (R-La.), cosponsored by Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah). Ending Obamacare for Illegal Immigrants – would prevent illegal immigrants from receiving healthcare under Obamacare.
Mobile Mammography Promotion Act – would expand access to mobile mammography services by eliminating the fuel excise tax to help provide on-site mammograms to women in both urban and rural areas that may not currently receive breast cancer screenings and preventive care.

Sponsored by Senator Dean Heller (R-Nev.), coauthored by Senator David Vitter (R-La.).
FAIR Generics Act – would lower the price of prescription drugs and make high-quality, lower-priced generic prescription medications available to consumers sooner by stopping the practice of “pay for delay” deals from keeping generic drugs off the market longer. 

Sponsored by Senator David Vitter (R-La..), coauthored by Senator Al Franken (D-Minn.)
I will readily admit the last of the four bills has a great deal of appeal as it purports to open doors to prescription imports from foreign markets. A prospect that will reduce prescription costs. Despite all that is good regarding legislation to unlock prescription drugs from foreign markets, Vitter's motives behind the pieces of legislation are nefarious to put it mildly. The repeal of the ACA is the big prize for the GOP and a "hat-tip" from the Kochs should the legislation reach a presidential signature.

GOP efforts to repeal a law that so infuriates the Koch brothers does not surprise. The reality of a party that cares so little about Americans who have lived with no medical coverage for years (in some cases a lifetime) is also not a surprise. There are no surprises as the GOP is not the party of the people. 

Do you recall the now debunked 2008/2009 GP mantra: "death panels?"

Alan Grayson poo-poos GOP claims of "Death Panels." 

And the Dark Side really couldn't care less about the uninsured. Ezra Klein's VOX explores the extent to which a major political party and a party that now has a firm grip on the US Congress really does not care about the uninsured.

Post by Ezra Klein.

Administration official cautions Congress on fighting against the ACA.
Post by Lefteous Indignation.

Now for a reliable piece of data (survey study results) that directly refutes "Death Panels", reflects a trend experts call "remarkable."

Charles Gaba's tracks ACA Open Enrollment ACA Signups site. We are two months into the 2015 Open Enrollment period. Enrollment data is collected and reported (via the graphs) for Qualified Health Policy (QHP) Enrollments and Medicaid/Chip enrollments. Gaba's extensive work rivals any I have seen and probably rivals any unseen tracking of the ACA. ObamaCare facts is a great source, but I find Gaba's visuals ease the burden of assimilating information in  short time-frame. The following graphics are the very latest from Gaba as he closely tracks enrollments on a state to state basis. His charts are not as difficult to follow once you value viewing and assimilating ACA enrollment.

ACA EXCHANGE Qualified Health Policy (QHP) Enrollments:

ACA-Enabled MEDICAID/CHIP Enrollments:

I believe a bit of perspective is in order.  Gaba's "original" Chart from the first day of open enrollment 2013 through September of 2014.

Link to ACASignups original chart

Additional key enrollment information including comment about those who suffered cancelled policies, here

Friday, December 26, 2014

Charles Gaba, ACA Signups: Renewals And New Enrollments

An ACA update from Charles Gaba, one who monitors and reports. While Cable News chases NYC cops killings (CNN), continues futile onslaughts against President Obama (Fox News) and new found celebrity and cool stuff chasing (MSNBC).

Merry Christmas: 2015 vs. 2014, Updated

A week or so ago I overlaid the 2015 Graph on top of the 2014 Graph, adjusting the time scale of last year's open enrollment period to account for the fact that this year it's less than half as long (93 days vs. 197 days). The results were pretty striking, but there were still a lot of unknowns regarding the autorenewal factor, among other things.
This Christmas Eve (I'm Jewish, so basically, you know, "Wednesday night" for me), I decided to run an updated version of the comparison, this time including the autorenewals along with other updated data. As a bonus, the dates even match up: December 23rd is 42% of the way through the 2015 OE period (39 days out of 93 total); December 23rd last year also happened to be 42% of the way through the 2014 OE period (84 days out of 197 total), so it seemed like a good point to run the comparison again.
And with that, here's my Christmas present to you: As of right now, the ACA exchanges as a whole have enrolled or re-enrolled 4.7x as many people as they had at the same point last year. Obviously this won't hold--I'm still expecting around 12.5 million by Feb. 15th, which would be about a 56% increase over last year--but symbolically, it's still a BFD, as Joe Biden would say.
Oh, one more thing: Some will rightly point out that the main reason for this is all of the renewals of existing enrollees (either actively or automatically). Setting aside the fact that those are still people enrolled/paying for ACA exchange policies regardless of their status, what happens if we remove them?
Well, as I noted earlier this week, I've confirmed over 5 million renewals total, and am confident of another 1.3 million more (mostly from CA & NY). Even if you subtract those from the total, you're still left with 2.35 million new enrollees for 2015...or 30% more than at this point last year.
Charles Gaba's blog

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Employee Medical Premium Cost Lower (but the news is not all good)

From time to time we report on various nuances regarding development related to the Affordable Care Act (AKA ObamaCare). Charles Gaba's ACASignups Dot Net is our or common sources of detailed enrollment and premium payment source. We also have archived pieces with Congressional Budget Office reports related to the impact of the ACA on healthcare cost as well as forecast of impact regrading Medicare. Huffington Post recently published a piece that supports other source reports of employee healthcare cost increases far less than in past years. The article is absent direct comment of the impact of the ACA on falling premium cost, but I fail to see how there can be no connection.

Here is an example chart from the piece we have partially embed.

employee health benefits

Despite the good news from the chart (above), Huffington Post's, Jeffrey Young adroitly navigates and explores the reality of employer healthcare plans and cost to employees.

Isn't it seriously pathetic we cannot have universal good news regarding employee healthcare care plans. The thought is personified and exponentially pathetic when so many large corporations shower their executives and top managers with compensation packages. 

As you read the piece, think about why so many corporate owners and uber wealthy, who derive earnings from corporations, are not supportive of universal single payer healthcare.

Huffington Post

Employee Health Insurance Costs Barely Increased This Year

Posted: Updated: 

For a change, the cost of the health insurance you get at work didn't go up much this year. 
The cost of job-based health benefits stayed nearly flat in 2014, according to survey results released Wednesday. This year's figures continue a trend of slow growth in premiums for health insurance provided by employers.
The average annual premium for a family plan rose 3 percent to $16,834, and the average price for a single worker increased 2 percent to $6,025, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and the American Hospital Association's Health Research and Educational Trust found. Workers on family plans are paying an average 29 percent of that cost, while single employees are paying 18 percent of it. The groups polled more than 2,000 small and large employers for their report.
Read More 


Sunday, August 31, 2014

Affordable Care Act Sign-ups And Paid

An Affordable Care Act update from Charles Gaba...and "The Graph." (ACASignups.Net)

The Graph, Updated: PAID QHPs should have broken 8 Million at last! (9.2M total)


Saturday, August 23, 2014

Affordable Care Act Twitter Tree and a Peep At Social Security and Medicare

June 2014 The Graph Updated
 Grab Bag.....Native Americans
 Grab Bag: Sign of the times: @MNsure having trouble finding uninsured people!

Maryland after a rough start!
California: What was that about still being unpopular?
 Arkansas: 2015 premium rates may DROP by 3.5%!
Cleaning Out the In Box: Arkansas' uninsured rate drops 45%
@SharylAttkisson posted an absurd graph. I've corrected it for her.
Least-Shocking News of the Day: Uninsured admissions down 50% in Medicaid expan states
A little 2013 icing on the ACA SignUps via AARP. Check out the fact sheet and recall, your GOP wants to take a knife to both employee contributory programs. Millionaires want to push and me over a cliff.

 Social Security

The Importance of Social Security and Medicare

Individual State Profiles


Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Charles Gaba On Halbig And The U.S. Circuit Court Of Appeals For The District of Columbia 2-1 Votes

Re-post from Charles Gaba's ACASignups Twitter link

"GOP Shoves Massive Tax Hike Down Middle-Class Voters Throats"