The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label Charles Gaba. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Charles Gaba. Show all posts

Monday, August 31, 2015

Affordable Care Act Assimilates

As the Affordable Care Act assimilates to US society and our social culture, we can rely on Charles Gaba's website for updates.

Welcome back from vacation, Charles!

Kaiser Family Foundation: Only 28% now want to repeal ACA

OK, I'm a little late on this one due to being on vacation last week, but the Kaiser Family Foundation released their latest national healthcare tracking poll:
Consistent with findings over the past few months, the American public remains divided in their opinion of the health care law; 44 percent say they have a favorable view and 41 percent say they have an unfavorable view. Opinion of the law continues to diverge along party lines, with most Democrats reporting a favorable view of the law (76 percent) and most Republicans reporting an unfavorable view of the law (71 percent). Among independents, 46 percent say they have an unfavorable view, while 39 percent report a favorable view.
If you smooth out the lines, the trend is gradual but clear: Since an all-time low approval during the disastrous exchange website launch in October 2013, approval of the ACA has slowly crawled back up to a plurality of approval...while disapproval, which reached a fever pitch during the massive midterm attack ad bombardment last summer, has dropped off at an even faster rate.

Opinion about what Congress should do next when it comes to the law also has been fairly constant over time. Nearly 3 in 10 (28 percent) say they want Congress to expand what the law does, an identical share (28 percent) hope for a complete repeal of the law, and the remainder fall in the middle by saying they want Congress to continue implementing the law as it is (22 percent) or scale it back (12 percent).
Put another way: 50% of the country wants to either keep or expand the ACA, while only 28% want to fully repeal it. The 12% who want to "scale it back" could mean any number of things...for instance, I'm among the supporters of the ACA who still thinks that the SHOP program should probably be scrapped completely; it only enrolled around 76,000 people last year (it wasn't launched on or in some state-based exchanges), and is only up to around 200-300K this year even with all 50 states+DC operating.
Here's the most telling response to me, however:
Although those who want the law repealed disagree about what Congress should do, they are unified in their unwavering desire for repeal. After being told that about 19 million people would become uninsured if the health care law were to be repealed, only 3 percent are swayed to say they no longer favor repealing the law.
Yes, that's right: 23% of the public still wants to repeal the ACA even when explicitly informed that 19 million people would lose their healthcare coverage.
Who are those 23%? Well, from the partisan breakdown shown earlier, 63% of those who want to repeal the law in general are Republicans. It doesn't take much number-crunching to conclude that virtually all of the Republicans who are calling for repeal fall into this category...even though an awful lot of those 19 million happen to be Republicans themselves.
End Kaiser Report

The 2015 enrollment "Big Chart"


Friday, August 14, 2015

ACA Signups.... 12.9M Private Policies Confirmed, 13.1M Estimated

Charles Gaba monitors and reports as the ACA spreads.....


Assuming my ballpark estimate of appx. 7,500 Off-Season QHP Selections Per Day is accurate, the grand total nationally should be breaking the 13 million milestone right (or at least sometime this week).
Some Guy, 10:45am this morning:
#ACASignups I'm pretty sure QHP selections just broke 13.1 million nationally: #ACA #Obamacare
— Charles Gaba (@charles_gaba) August 13, 2015
2015 Special Enrollment Period Report – February 23 – June 30, 2015
The next open enrollment period for Marketplace coverage begins on November 1, 2015 for coverage starting on January 1, 2016. Some people can sign up for health coverage outside of open enrollment, before November 1, because they qualify for a special enrollment period (SEP). A consumer can qualify for a SEP for such circumstances as loss of health coverage, losing Medicaid eligibility, changes in family status (for example, marriage or birth of a child), or other exceptional circumstances.
This snapshot provides information about consumers who selected a plan between February 23 and June 30, 2015 through the platform, which includes 37 states with Federally Facilitated Marketplaces, State Partnership Marketplaces, and supported State-Based Marketplaces.
Nearly 950,000 new consumers selected a plan through the platform using a SEP between February 23 and June 30, 2015.
Yes, that's right: With this morning's updates from Minnesota and Massachusetts thrown in, the confirmed total number  of  QHP selections nationally now stands at at least 13,056,955 to date...vs. my estimate of 13.1 million, or just 43,000 shy of where I projected.

To be fair, it's actually even better than that: Today's CMS report for Healthcare.Gov only runs through June 30, which means it doesn't include the likely 230,000 additional   people who have selected QHPs since then (assuming roughly 5,700 per day on Healthcare.Gov). In other words, the off-season daily average, which I've been estimating at around 7,500/day nationally, is probably more like 8,000/day or higher.
UPDATE: It turns out that 143,707 of these are due to the Tax Filing Season special enrollment period. Since I already had 147K included in my estimates prior to today, I have to subtract 147K from the grand total, bringing the grand total down to around 12.9 million (12,909,955).
Here's the irony, however: This total was still as of June 30. When you subtract the Tax Season enrollments from the 944K total, it's 800,227. Divide that by the 128 days between 2/23 - 6/30 and you have 6,250 per day for Healthcare.Gov (ie, this doesn't include the state-based exchanges).
Assuming off-season SEP enrollment continued at this pace throughout July and into August (7/01 - 7/13), that's another 275,000 from alone. Normally I'd have to add the state-based exchange enrollment to this, but those have mostly already been accounted for.
In other words, the grand total as of today (August 13) almost certainly is at least 13.1 million after all, and could be as high as 13.3 million.


Monday, April 27, 2015

Charles Gaba and ACA Indifference; A Dangerous Reality

Charles Gaba via his ACA keeps is diligent in informing on the reality of the Right in the context of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare). Unfortunately, facts point to a distorting trend for others beyond the regressive and motive oriented GOP. Far too many have little to no idea the significance of the ACA and its developing acceptance (and enrollments). We expect indifference and loathing from the Right; seeing more indifference and lack of knowledge from supposed progressive is factually disheartening and dangers to the good of the greater society.

Gaba's work and continued diligence in archiving a critical aspect of US History.

Larger Versions:

A few days ago, posted the results of their own survey about the ACA, which showed pretty much exactly the same results as both the Bloomberg News and Kaiser Family Foundation polls released last week: Obamacare still isn't exactly beloved, but acceptance/approval of the law has been gradually (if grudgingly) increasing ever since the ugly rollout of the ACA exchanges a year and a half ago:

I didn't bother posting about this poll because it seemed a bit redundant; all 3 surveys asked questions in different ways, but the results are pretty consistent across the board.

However, thanks to Jim Drake for bringing to my attention this post by Jonathan Cohn and Mark Blumenthal over at the Huffington Post, which looks at the more #FacePalm-inducing responses to a different question:
But the most revealing part of the YouGov poll was a more specific question about how people perceive the Affordable Care Act’s performance -- specifically, whether respondents think the number of people with insurance has increased, remained the same, or fallen over the last 12 months.
The question is revealing because it broke out response by partisan identification. Among Democrats, 77 percent said the number of people with insurance had risen, while just 9 percent said it had decreased. But among Republicans, just 43 percent thought the number of people with insurance had increased, while 21 percent said it had decreased.
Facts don't matter to these people. Math doesn't matter to these people. Logic and reality don't matter to these people. 25% of Republicans think that the number of Americans insured is the same today as it was a couple of years ago, and another 21%--over 1 in 5--actually think that fewer people are insured today. It's insane.

Now, to be fair, about 13% of Democrats/Independents (combined) think the insured rate hasn't changed, and 12% of Dems/Indys are also utterly detached from reality as well, and I'm reading them the riot act just as fiercely as I am to 46% of the GOP.

If anything, I should be even more furious with the 16% of Democrats who are this clueless. I expect today's Republican to be completely ignorant of anything having to do with the Affordable Care Act, but I expect more out of Democrats.

On the other hand, this certainly helps explain some of the other results from YouGov as well as Bloomberg and KFF. Overall, 29% of the public has their information dead wrong...which just happens to match up perfectly with the 29% who are crying REPEAL! over at the Kaiser survey and very close to the 35% in Bloomberg's study.

This is just...sad.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

COMPLETE 2015 Graph: 32 Million People (Charles Gaba)

ACASignUPs.Net  (Charles Gaba)

The COMPLETE 2015 Graph: 32 Million People, One Image File

Yesterday, the New York Times posted an infographic depicting the breakout of insurance coverage for everyone in the country, based entirely on my data. The grand total of ACA-specific health insurance coverage topped out at around 31.4 million, but left out close to a million people due to rounding and to deliberately leaving out a few items (such as people enrolled in small business coverage via the SHOP exchanges, which I estimate to be around 220,000 people nationally).
Today, I'm posting my own "complete" ACA graph...which will be familiar to anyone who was following this site last year. In 2014 I tried to display every form of ACA coverage on a single graph (exchange QHPs, off-exchange, Medicaid expansion, woodworkers, SHOP...the works). It became too cumbersome for everyday use, so I split Medicaid/CHIP off onto their own graph and simplified the rest.
However, now that every state (except for Idaho) has been updated through at least February 15th, here, once again, is the complete 2015 ACA enrollment graph, showing the rough breakout of all 32.3 million people whose current healthcare coverage is either wholly or partly due specifically to the Affordable Care Act.
Again, that does not mean that all 32.3 million were uninsured to begin with. By my best estimates based on the available data, I estimate that around 19 million already had some form of insurance coverage. Around 11 million were uninsured prior to January 2014, and around another 2 million were uninsured prior to January 2015.
UPDATE: Regarding the "Sub26ers" (19-25 year olds allowed to stay on their parents' policy thanks to the ACA): Many of these are already counted in other categories at this point. Many, however, are included in Employer Sponsored Insurance policies (not listed here). Unfortunately, this number was always very hard to pin down to begin with, and there were some policies in some states which already allowed 19-26ers to stay on their policies even before the ACA. As a result, this year I've completely abandoned trying to even keep track of it. However, they're definitely out there.
I should also note that earlier today I posted a long-term projection which looks at how the rest of 2015 should play out...assuming that the Supreme Court DOESN'T gut tax credits, that is.


Saturday, February 14, 2015

ObamaCare Open Enrollment Period 2015.....Viva La ACA

As the Open Enrollment period for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) approaches Charles Gaba has updated his long running ACA enrollment tracking charts. The ACA continues to help people well over 10 million Americans with medical care coverage, lower cost medial care coverage, coverage for millennials through age 26, or the prospect of lower cost coverage if the person wishes to give-up on high risk high deductible plans.

If you are not a strict follower of the ACA signups website or a Gaba Twitter follower, the following glossary may help understand the charts.


  • QHP: Qualified Healthcare Plan. These are ACA-compliant healthcare policies which may be purchased either via the Exchanges or Off-Exchange.
  • SHOP: The ACA's Small Business Health Options Program. Basically this is similar to the individual/family exchanges, except for small businesses. Only available in a handful of states right now, but the policies purchased via the SHOP program are fully ACA/QHP compliant.
  • Woodworkers: People who already qualified for Medicaid even before the ACA expansion rules kicked in (even in non-expansion states), who have enrolled since 10/1/13 but didn't prior to that due to either not knowing they qualified, not knowing how to enroll, being embarrassed/fearful of a stigma for signing onto Medicaid, etc. These people have been "drawn out of the woodwork" since October to enroll. Hard to quantify since it involves guessing at individual motive, but definitely there from the increase of Medicaid tallies even in non-expansion states.
  • #OE1 & #OE2 (Open Enrollment 1 & Open Enrollment 2): #hashtags that I'm hoping will trend in order to distinguish the 2015 ACA Open Enrollment Period from the 2014 period.

ACA EXCHANGE Qualified Health Policy (QHP) Enrollments:

ACA-Enabled MEDICAID/CHIP Enrollments: