The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Friday, March 31, 2017

Introduce Robots; Talk Of Jobs

What, them worry? 

Posted: 31 March 2017

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin may not be worried. Nor, it seems, are other members of the economic and political elite. But the rest of us are—or we should be.

As regular readers of this blog know (cf. all these posts), the robots are here and they’re rapidly replacing workers, thus leading to less employment, downward pressure on wages, and even more inequality.

The latest evidence comes from the work of Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo, who argue, using a model in which robots compete against human labor in the production of different tasks, that in the United States robots have reduced both employment and wages during recent decades (from 1993 to 2007). That conclusion holds even accounting for the fact that some areas of the economy may grow (thus increasing employment for some workers) when the use of robots raises productivity and reduces costs in other industries.

Even though U.S. employers have been introducing industrial robots at a pace that is less than in Europe, their use in American workplaces has in fact grown (between 1993 and 2007, the stock of robots in the United States increased fourfold, amounting to one new industrial robot for every thousand workers). And, once the direct and indirect effects are estimated, robots are responsible for up to 670,000 lost manufacturing jobs. And that number will rise, because industrial robots are expected to quadruple by 2025.

Actually, the effects have likely been even more dramatic, because Acemoglu and Restrepo take into account only three forces shaping the labor market: the displacement effect (because robots displace workers and reduce the demand for labor), the price-productivity effect (as automation lowers the costs of production in an industry, that industry expands), and the scale-productivity effect (the reduction of costs results in an expansion of total output).

What they’re missing is the effect on the value of labor power. As I explained last year, when productivity increases lower the prices of commodities workers consume, the value capitalists need to pay to get access to workers’ ability to work also goes down. As a result, even if workers’ real wages go up, the rate of exploitation can rise. Workers spend less of the day working for themselves and more for their employers. Capitalists, in other words, are able to extract more relative surplus-value.

And more surplus-value means more income for all those who share in the booty: CEOs, members of the 1 percent, and so on.

That’s why the increasing use of industrial robots, which under other circumstances we might actually celebrate, within existing economic institutions represents a disaster—not for their employers (who, like Mnuchin, are not particularly worried), but for all the workers who have been or are likely to be displaced and even those who manage to hang onto their jobs.

Workers are the ones who are going to continue to suffer from the “large and robust negative effects of robots”—unless and until they have a say in how robots and the resulting surplus are utilized.

Friday, July 12, 2013

An Improving Economy; Total Quiet From The Right!

If you want to see why conservatives and the GOP are avoiding all mention of the US economy, peep at a few images that follow. If you want to know why Jim Demint's Heritage Foundation published a letter ordering the GOP to avoid issues other than 'alleged' scandals from the Obama Administration, peep at a few images that follow. The images are real depictions of an economy that is improving despite GOP efforts to stifle improvement in every imaginable way.

Ultimately, jobs drive any capitalist economy.  We have a conservative political party that works to stifle efforts at job creation in every imaginable way. Factually, the only actionable mention of jobs from the House relates to their whiny appeals for approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline. Jobs which are highly inflated in number by the GOP and jobs associated with a project that has significant political contributions attached. 

Charting an improved economy.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

FRED Graph FRED Graph

FRED Graph FRED Graph

CNN Money
home prices 0625

home sales march 2013

Our economy is most assuredly on the mend and it is healing without one iota of help from one half of the US Federal Government.  From the tea party infested House of Representatives, to the US Senate and even the non-legislative  judicial branch (the SCOTUS), each branch of our federal government has elements which are working against you and me.

Right things Happen! And, the right thing is happening with a steadily improving economy.

The Markets


Record-breaker for stocks sparked by upbeat Fed comments

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the end of the trading day Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record hig...
Andrew Burton / Getty Images
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock
Exchange at the end of the trading day Thursday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record
high today, up 169.26 points to close at 15,460.92.
It was a record-breaking day on Wall Street on Thursday. 
Thursday's big surge upwards came less than a day after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed would keep its foot on the stimulus gas pedal for some time, even if the unemployment rate hit the Fed's target of 6.5 percent.Not only did the Dow and S&P 500 crash through their previous record highs, but the technology-heavy Nasdaq closed at its highest level in 13 years when the dot-com bubble was bursting. 
The Nasdaq had its best day in three months, jumping 57.55 points, or 1.63 percent and closing at its highest level -- 3,578.30 -- since Sept. 29, 2000. That was when the dot-com bubble was bursting after a speculative period from 1997 when stock markets saw their equity value rise rapidly from growth in the Internet sector and related fields.

Federal Budget Surplus
NBC News

US posts surprisingly big budget surplus 

The U.S. government posted an unexpectedly large budget surplus in June, a further sign of the rapid improvement in public finances that has taken the heat off Congress to find savings and raise the nation's borrowing limit. Rising tax revenue, public spending cuts and big payments to the Treasury from government-backed mortgage companies helped the government take in $117 billion more last month than it paid out, the U.S. Treasury said on Thursday.  
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a surplus of $39.5 billion.  
June's surplus was the largest on record for that month. 
While the government is still $510 billion in the red with three months to go in the fiscal year, June's big surplus will buy it time before it runs up against the limit on borrowing set by Congress. Analysts expect the Treasury to hit the debt ceiling by early November.  
The surplus in June also highlighted how much an improving economy and existing legislation have helped improve the fiscal outlook. That has made overhauling public pension and healthcare systems a little less pressing.
Read more

There is simply no way an election of McCain/Palin nor Romney/Ryan would have led to an economy that moved quickly away from potential economic depression to improvement within weeks of the democratic economic stimulus.  And, there is no way Paul Ryan's "witch-doctor" budget if he and Romney had won the White House could possibly have led to the improvements we see today.  Many economist and the European Union provide evidence 'pure austerity' does not work in 2012/13 climates.  The GOP knows nothing beyond austerity, post George W. Bush. The GOP's last occupant of the White House had no regard for austerity. In fact, the alleged "Father of Modern Conservatism", Ronald Reagan, was not one who practiced stifling austerity measures. 

Factually, both Reagan and Bush contributed most to the current US deficit. It does not take a degree in Economics to understand that the affects of longstanding GOP spending (without commensurate regulation of our markets and industry) contributed to Barack Obama's personally "unwelcomed" immediate thrust into a failing economy and the need for the stimulus he fought for so correctly and boldly.
Our economy could reverse into recession. We must accept that prospect. We suggest it will not slip into another recession and potential collapse if the GOP would work with the administration to improve job creation.  Jobs drive our economy; the GOP will not give us opportunity for improved job creation.

The GOP will not help to put you back to work. Yet, it will work against food assistance programs what you may rely on while unemployed.