The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label Gallup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gallup. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Mid-July 2017 Trump Polling

Reuters/Ipsos PollTrump Approval Rating

July 24, 2017

  • Disapprove58.3%
  • Approve35.1%
  • Mixed feelings6.6%

If you want to see the trend lines click here.


July 11 - 13
                                                                            1,500 national adults

Gallup trendline here.

    Trump's approval rating over the last three months from Gallup -- at 39% -- set a new record low in second quarter approval ratings for new presidents back to 1945.

    End CNN, Gallup, and Reuters poll graphics.

    All said by now it is obvious many millions who voted for Trump are suffering from post election dissonance (or more descriptively, voters remorse).


    Monday, June 19, 2017

    Trump's Information Machine Working Your Psyche (Polls)

    A couple of days back we ran a piece with the following lede paragraphs and graphics. (Winning, Winning, Winning: Polls Don't Agree)

    Image result for trump sinking America

    The ship is truly sinking. 

    Image result for trump sinking AmericaDonald Trump, as President, is suffering decreasing approval ratings along with related increasing disapproval ratings and Gallup has just published a piece regarding Trump's 
    satisfaction rate/ level among Republicans.  Yes, the ship is sinking.


    Satisfaction with Direction of US by Party Affiliation

    A quick review of the graphic shows a dramatic drop in Republican satisfaction of their nascent party leader and president. In May, the rate was around 57 percent, half way through June the rate has dropped 17 points.

    We knew when we ran the piece Rasmussen's right lean polling would offer Trump a prop up via reporting Trump with a 50% approval rating.  We also knew that Trump would dispatch his cadre of "presstitutes" to the airways (with an exception of MSNBC) to offer outright lies and misinformation about Trump's perception among the US citizenry.

    Crooks & Liars captured the Mike Huckabee Fox News visit like no other media. Trump surrogacy is as shamefully narcissistic as any of the nation's 45  President across.  As we move through the early years of the 21st Century, it is amazing the depth, level, and scope of Rightwing manipulation of Americans who subscribe to conservative ideology. 

    Crooks & Liars

    Mike Huckabee: Trump Is A 'Remarkable President'

    In another sycophantic segment, Fox and Friends has created a new presidential marker, "the first 150 days of Trump" (way to move the goalposts!) Mike Huckabee claims Americans should be saying, "Thank you, Mr. President." Trump hasn't passed any meaningful legislation within Congress on jobs or taxes, and outside of using executive orders, he's done nothing…

    Saturday, June 17, 2017

    Trump Loves Rasmussen Poll (Almost As Much As Twitter)

    Image result for alternative facts meme

    We have consistently offered posts regarding Trump's declining poll numbers. We feel it only fair to post about Trump's excitement with a recent Rasmussen poll. 

    Yes, you know Rasmussen, I know Rasmussen, and yes, Trump also knows Rasmussen; yet the Rasmussen straw on the water's surface must be appealing as he sinks into the murk of his own doing. Well, let's say it fits feeding his sycophant base as I stated you and I know Rasmussen.

     Trump tweeted yesterday.
    Our recent past polling posts: Winning, Winning, Winning 

     Quick Hits: Poll Watch

    Gallup On Trump

    All of that said, let's work with Rasmussen, (just a bit).

    538 Blogs 2012 ratings and review of political polling.

    No automatic alt text available.

    Clearly apparent, Rasmussen on polled a bunch. The polling yielded a 538 assessment of a heavy Republican lean (see R +3.7).  Also notice the Average Error rating: 4.2.  We admit that Gallup's 7.2 Avg Error and R+7.2 Republican lean, is very perplexing and contrary to the current Gallup lean which is slight left lean.

    In 2016, 538 revisited offer another comprehensive review of national public polling. Rasmussen scored similarly, but did show an "Accurate Race Calling" at 79 percent.

    Let's visit with a person who probably knows quite a bit about polling methodology. (We posted the comment as it is posted on Quora).

    Quora (2012)
    Cell phone polling is surprisingly accurate, though internet polling has reintroduced a lot of the same problems direct mail survey responses faced. putting aside the tendency to overemphasize response rate (the generality of responsiveness is far more important). That sai,d there are two types of polls--one which attempts to predict a future event--for which 'crowdsourcing' techniques tend to be fairly good, and a barometer of current public opinion, which tends to be really bad. The latter is problematic because 1) people don't know much about political issues, and 2) most people don't even have coherent and fully formed opinions on those issues. Therefore, they utilize heuristics and shortcuts, and are susceptible to the question wording and framing. Unfortunatley, the latter are usually put forth by journalists. 
    Trump grabbing and bannering Rasmussen is as disingenuous as his sending Sean Spicer to the White House Press Room days after his inauguration to declare he attracted the largest crowds eve.  Of course, if you are a Trump supporter, lover or worshipper, you will find his grabbing Rasmussen's polling an acceptable (and desirable) alternative fact.


    Friday, June 16, 2017

    "Winning, Winning,Winning"; Polls Don't Agree

    Image result for trump sinking America

    The ship is truly sinking. 

    Image result for trump sinking AmericaDonald Trump, as President, is suffering decreasing approval ratings along with related increasing disapproval ratings and Gallup has just published a piece regarding Trump's 
    satisfaction rate/ level among Republicans.  Yes, the ship is sinking.


    Satisfaction with Direction of US by Party Affiliation

    A quick review of the graphic shows a dramatic drop in Republican satisfaction of their nascent party leader and president.  In May, the rate was around 57 percent, half way through June the rate has dropped 17 points. 

    It appears Republicans are falling-off-the Trump Carnival wagons. Wagons the GOP and conservative Americans have circled around Trump since revelations of his Billy Bush vagina grabbing video. Those emptying wagons mean sure doom for the GOP.  

    Alas, the suffering doesn't stop with the GOP The national satisfaction rate has dropped to a one year low of 24 percent. 

    Image may contain: text


    Thursday, June 8, 2017

    Quick Hit: Poll Watch

    Quick Hit.


    Quinnipiac (linked)

    Gallup (linked)


    Yes, Trump said during the campaign, "We will win, win, win, you will be tired of winning."  And now I look up at what precedes. 

    Sunday, May 14, 2017

    YOUR GOP: Trump And His Congress (Breakfast Polls)


    How about your GOP Congress?


    Americans' Approval of Congress Unchanged in May

    Americans' Approval of Congress Unchanged in May

    NBC News/WSJ Poll
    Comey: "You're fired."

    How popular trump latest approval rating white supporters flee president 607478
    Perhaps even more troubling for the president: The folks who made up his base in November's election appear to be growing weary. White voters are fleeing. 
    Forty-seven percent of white voters with no college degree approved of Trump's job performance, while 46 percent disapproved, the survey found. That's a steep drop in support from last month, when 57 percent approved of Trump, and compare that to exit polls in November that found 67 percent of non-college-educated whites voted for Trump, the highest such figure for any candidate since 1980.

    Well, the surely put the man in office. And, now it is time to succumb to post-election dissonance. How pathetic. StumbleUpon

    Monday, April 17, 2017

    Trump Branding Approval Ratings And Gallup Update

    Polls, Polls, and more polls.

    While Survey/Monkey and Rassmussen have Trump's approval rating moderately over 40%, and McClatcthy/Marist and Gallup have published results at 39 to 40% approval, we feel it worthwhile to post a video with Chuck Todd's running through a few key public perception rating data.  

    The uniqueness of the BNC polling is in polling focus on the Trump brand.
    Respondents were asked three separate questions: 
    1. Would you be more likely to use a product endorsed by President Trump?
    1. Would you be less likely to use a product endorsed by President Trump?
    1. Would you actively boycott a product endorsed by President Trump?

    We offer the link to the Todd segment while closing with a few graphics from the piece.

    Isn't it amazing how the graphics parallel the following graphic:

    And we wonder why we have so much partisanship in the US Congress.

    UPDATE: Since publishing this piece earlier today, we ran across a recent release from Gallup
    WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's image among Americans as someone who keeps his promises has faded in the first two months of his presidency, falling from 62% in February to 45%. The public is also less likely to see him as a "strong and decisive leader," as someone who "can bring about the changes this country needs" or as "honest and trustworthy."
    Trump Loses Ground on Key Characteristics
    Percentage who think each of the following applies to Donald Trump
    Feb 1-5Apr 5-9Change
    %%pct. pts.
    Keeps his promises6245-17
    Is a strong and decisive leader5952-7
    Can bring about changes this country needs5346-7
    Is honest and trustworthy4236-6
    Cares about the needs of people like you4642-4
    Can manage the government effectively4441-3

    Over the past two months, Trump's ratings have declined at least marginally on all six characteristics that Gallup measured in its April 5-9 poll. The percentages saying he cares about the needs of people like themselves and that he can manage the government effectively slipped three to four percentage points, but the changes are not statistically significant.


    Wednesday, April 5, 2017

    Trump: Polls, Polls, And More Polls

    Image result for trump polls approval

    Recently CNN brought together a small focus group of Trump supporters I believe this group was part of a much larger focus group well prior to election night.  I wouldn't view much past the first 3:17 minutes. My major reason for posting the segment was to capture the Trump term "grade" signs flashed from each Trump sycophant. 

    CNN NewsDay

    If you need any additional validation of the sycophant Trump worshipper, you will not find deeper sycophants. The members of the focus group are oblivious to real information related to Trump, his promises, his lies, his demeanor, his affect and his performance in the Oval Office. Fortunately, there are Americans who are paying attention and I think it safe to assert many are experiencing a high level of post-election dissonance. 

    From March 24th through March 30th, Quinnipiac conducted a national survey: 

    While the weekly "Q" Poll shows a definite downward trending regarding the Trump's approval rating, let's take a look at a few sets of polling data via today's Morning Joe Show.

    An Administration and an Elected President who fails to grab any confidence among the population. Historically low numbers for the Presidency less than 100 days.

    More Quinnipiac for those with deep interest.

    March 24, 2017 - American Voters Want To Save Big Bird, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Most Oppose Spending Cuts In Trump Budget

    April 4, 2017 - Trump Slump Continues As He Drops Below Obama, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Republicans In Congress Drop To More Than 3-1 Negative

    While Trump and company are bursting with governing incompetence, how about a couple of anecdotal examples of why the man just isn't properly suited for government leadership. 

    Did millions fall for what should have been clear and unmistaken campaign lies? Is it possible millions watched and listened to Fox News and other right-wing fake news? How about voters unleashing their deep rooted hatred (or dislike if you prefer) of President Obama? While many may not wish to accept another reality, the reality is real. How about a rise of white nationalism and resistance against any political party or social movement which attracts African-American (and to some extent Latino) voters?   

    We offer an anecdotal example of desperate voters driven by social change and accompanied by nonvoters in the millions and gullible third-party. 

    Yes, and the lies flowed like the Mississippi River.

    Politifact published a piece the week before the Trump Inauguration with a theme that actually nails Trumpism.
    "We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning, you’re going to come to me and go ‘Please, please, we can’t win anymore.’ … You’ll say ‘Please, Mr. President, we beg you sir, we don’t want to win anymore. It’s too much. It’s not fair to everybody else,’ " Trump said in Montana last May. "And I’m going to say ‘I’m sorry, but we’re going to keep winning, winning, winning. We’re going to make America great again.’ "
    The pitch worked.......Can Trump deliver?
    Since January 20th, 2017, Politifact has performed analysis of over 300 Trump statements. The noted fact-checker shows a review results graphic which clearly skewers to the "FALSE" and the "PANTS ON FIRE."  

    Here is another classic example of a total lack of credibility. In 2015 Trump sat on camera with his buddy (serial sexual harasser Bill O'Reilly) and poked fun at Obama's State Dinner hosting of the President of China.

    It should be noted the President of China is visiting rump this weekend at Mar-A-Lago (at a cost of well over $3 million (dollar) hit against the Federal Budget). It goes well beyond hypocrisy.

    Yet, the statements of a pathological liar are different from campaign promises based on the existential reality promises can be tangibly reviewed and assessed. The Washington Post has started campaign promises running a review of 60 Trump campaign promises.  

    Trump Promise Tracker

    Updated Mar. 29

    It’s day 76 of the Trump administration with 1,385 days left in his term. We’re tracking the progress of 60 pledges he made during his campaign — and whether he achieved his goals.
    Trump promise status totals
    Promises kept6
    Promises broken3
    Not yet rated37
    What do these ratings mean?
    Promise keptTrump mostly or completely achieved his stated goal
    Promise brokenTrump failed to achieved his goal, through inaction or congressional or legal obstacles
    LaunchedTrump has taken action, such as proposing a bill or issuing an order, toward achieving this promise
    StuckTrump has taken action, but Congress or the courts have put up roadblocks
    CompromiseTrump did not achieve his goal, but accepted a deal that partially achieved his promise
    Not yet ratedNo action has yet been taken
    Is there any wonder Trump's poll numbers are as low as the belly of a common Garter Snake?


    Sunday, March 19, 2017

    Obama Care Facts VS Trump/Ryan Non-Health Plan


    The GOP won the fall General Elections. Trump won an electoral victory (which should draw deep consideration of how the College works) and after one month end-up the process 2.84 million votes behind his opponent Hillary Clinton. The GOP lost seats in the House and the US Senate but retained House and Senate majorities. A dire state which will impact the nation throughout this century and probably into the next Century. The impact of the vote is showing in the Trump/Ryan Budget and it can be characterized as pure blood-letting and "death paneling.A"

    US voters should have gone into the polling places with full knowledge and recognition a Trump win would lead to a path for Paul Ryan to cut cost at the expense of all Human Services program. Of course, the ACA is the big target of the GOP. Think of the number of times since Trump's inauguration you have heard "repeal and replace'. Yes, the slogan has gained status right alongside the Confederate Army rebel yell, and the ugly conservative political rally chant of "USA, USA, USA." Repeal and Replace based on the GOP claim the ACA is on a death spiral.

    The GOP is remarkably successful at sloganeering.  Evidence of their success is inherent the GOP's opposition to the ACA before 2010 (and thereafter) with that ever-present "death panels" slogan.  The call post-election call of the day is " death spiral." The slogan is nothing more than a sophism much like their pre-2010 "death panels."

    While there are many sources of ACA-related information (all of which refute the GOP claims), we prefer to frequent a site called Obama Care Facts. Before moving to a few examples of information-laden charts related to the ACA, it is critical to remember the GOP didn't enact one measure or piece of legislation to further develop the ACA since its signature day at the White House. The party has been in total opposition with lock step strategy with Mitch McConnell's call for Obama as a "one-term" president.
    Obama Care Facts excerpt

    Obama Care cost and coverage (key considerations)
    In all, the latest news is good news in regards to total costs and coverage. A new June 2016 study by the Urban Institute shows the latest long term spending projections are $2.6 trillion lower than the original post-ACA baseline forecast through 2020 — a reduction in projected spending of almost 13%. Read more. Meanwhile, the uninsured rate was estimated to hit an all-time low fell to 9.1% in 2015 according to a 2016 report. Another report demonstrated a steady falling trend under the ACA, but estimated it at an all time low of 11%.
    Before the ACA up to 47 million were uninsured.
    A Gallup poll shows how the uninsured has decreased since the inception of the law. Note, the poll data relates to late calendar 2013 through the first calendar quarter of 2016.

    Gallup also offered a graph clearly showing deep reductions in the uninsured dating back beyond the ACA through the first calendar quarter of 2016.  gallup-healthways-2nd-quarter-2015-aca-uninusred

    Millions more Americans now have some form of medical coverage than prior tot he ACA.


    MSNBC's Ali Velshi offered a three minutes segment about the myths of the ACA death spiral.
    "I want to keep drilling down on some of these big myths that are being spouted about healthcare, surrounding the healthcare system here in the United States," Velshi said. "One of the myths we here, we have it said on this show several times is that the United States have the best healthcare system in the world."

    The following MSNBC AM Joy segment is a bit long, but it is must viewing. Her guest, a former Pharmacist and current House Representative from the State of Georgia, comes across as the classic GOP Ayn Rand non-caring conservative. While we should consider not broad-brushing all conservatives as anti-Obama Care since some conservatives apparently benefit from the Affordable Care Act. However, I think it safe to assume the majority of voting conservatives support GOP efforts to repeal the ACA.

    The following World Data chart speaks volumes about the extent to which US leadership and health industry professional care little about the quality of health services in our nation.

    A pathetic state for an alleged world leader.  Now, consider where the GOP wants to take the majority influence on life expectancy: health care.

    If you are a person who values accurate information on the ACA and the Trump/Ryan bill, from a non-conservative perspective you may want to give this piece more minutes Ezra Klein published a great broadcast segment via his VOX website.