The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label ORCA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ORCA. Show all posts

Monday, December 24, 2012

Polling Gone Wrong = Romney With No Concession Speech!


Yesterday morning Mark Blumenthal of Huffington Post wrote an interesting and intriguing piece about the impact of polling on the 2012 election. The writer provides detailed information about polling, how it it predicted the eventually election outcomes, and how many polling organizations under estimated that actual outcome. 

The article does not address Nate Silver's consistently accurate forecasting system; a system that accurately predicted the 2008 and 2012 elections results. TPI on Nate Silver.

2012 Polling Accuracy: Right Winner, But Different Trends

Posted:   |  Updated: 12/23/2012 10:05 am EST

On Tuesday, the National Council on Public Polls released its biennial report on polling accuracy. "Generally speaking, the national and state polls this year did okay," NCPP president Evans Witt told The Huffington Post, though "they didn't come quite as close to matching the election results as they had, for example, in 2008."
The final surveys by Pew Research, ABC News/Washington Post and Gallup all showed a similar trend following the first debate. All three showed Obama trailing Romney narrowly in mid-October, and all three showed a gain of 3 percentage points to 4 points by Obama over the final week of the campaign. Many observers have attributed this late trend to a "surge in positive coverage" of Obama's handling of Hurricane Sandy during the final week of the campaign.

The  Blumenthal piece is detailed, data laden, and seemingly accurate.  He ends the piece with a telling reference and link to a site the Resurgent Republic.  The site is a conservative data focused web page that tracked polling data, or so it claims.  I find it interesting the extent to which the site was completely off on its data and analysis.  As I viewed charts below, I was reminded of Karl Rove's flawed and maligned ORCA polling system and the more geeky  Obama campaign NARWAHL system. The results of  Rove's system was evident in his unforgettable "meltdown" on Fox News the evening of the election. 

We link to the site with each chart. Our focus on posting the illustrations with comment is in no way for purpose of gloating or celebrating the Obama win. We are much more concerned with how polling reveals information that if not gathered effectively, if not analyzed effectively and not carefully communicated leads to misleading people. After a few minutes of viewing, it became obvious that this data and similar data represented a false picture of the voting populace prior to the 2012 election.   

The first chart below was recently posted on the Resurgent Republic. The graphic represents what we call a 'clean-up' illustration as it reflects the level of the Republic's  inaccuracy prior to the election. 

Larger view click chart then click again in new window.


Key subgroups of President Obama's winning coalition including Hispanics, young voters, and unmarried women outperformed their 2008 turnout levels

If you took a moment to view the graphic above. "The Mirage", you really must either view a few charts below or visit the Resurgent Republic website. The charts start with an interesting depiction from November 2011. The Republic's data path starts with a word Romney, Rove and others counted on: Pessimism.


Graphics are Pre-November 6, 2012


If President Obama's reelection campaign is a referendum on the incumbent, he’s in deep trouble just a year before 2012 because Americans believe the country is worse off than before Obama.

Now, take a look at May, 2012 through October, 2012. The site does not include charts for each month prior to the election. Or, suffice it to say, if the charts are there, they are not visible for a quick purview. 


MAY 2012
Voters’ top priority remains the economy, and they overwhelmingly believe the country is stuck in a recession, President Obama's economic plan is not working, and that it's time to try something else. 


JULY 2012
Battleground-state voters are more likely to say the country is on the wrong track and to hold an unfavorable opinion of President Obama.


Description: Voter enthusiasm favors Republicans overall and subgroups most likely to support Governor Romney, according to our July survey. This advantage could be the deciding factor in a turnout election.


In his campaign messaging, President Obama claims the mantle of "Forward." But voters fundamentally disagree with that characterization of the country. Only 39 percent of likely voters today say the country is moving forward.


In 2008 President Obama won a majority of Independent, but today Governor Romney holds a 51 to 39 percent lead. In 6 out of 7 issues Independents trust Romney over Obama.

The site has few more graphics related to the charts depicted here. I chose these charts based on their clear implication for people who may have viewed the data prior to the election   I actually compliment the developers of the data on their visuals.  Their method of collecting data has to come under question for its lack of veracity. Yet, the Republic is not alone. Gallup  Rasmussen and ABC also error-ed in their polling and related  reporting right up until the first vote was cast.

Right Winner, But Different Trends


Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Anonymous: Introduces CODE TYLER


"Anonymous took the same approach as taken several times before: decentralize. So began Anonymous’s “Project Mayhem” which has produced TYLER: Now instead of a single target, every single machine connected to Tyler will become a hub. Millions of machines, all churning over and handling the data. It is a nightmare scenario for any group or agency seeking to hide its secrets. No longer will there be a large rat to target, but millions of scurrying cockroaches, any single survivor enabling the reconstruction of the entire network.

The actions against Wikileaks have, instead of prevented the leaking of sensitive data, now made the leaking of that data now a trivial occurence, done by anyone in a matter of minutes, all in complete anonymity. The concerns over another Bradley Manning, being held for releasing secret documentation, are almost trivial, since  it will be next to impossible to track when the next Private Manning comes along. It has now become no longer a matter of if, but when."

Full Story:
We have reported from time to time on the Hacktivist Group called Anonymous.  Recent claims by Anonymous of infiltration and stifling of Karl Rove's ORCA polling system was posted, here, with a great deal of glee.   Thom Hartmann reported on the Anonymous claim, along with many other sources. The hackivist group has also been reported to have hacked into defense department computers systems. While some reports are "claims" and other reports come in the form of news, we feel comfortable Anonymous aligned very effectively with last years Occupy Wall Street Movement. We believe the alignment dates back to OWS roots in Canada, thus pre-dating the Occupy settlement in New York City.

Our work has been primarily to report. Other than our glee with reports of possibly taking down Rove's ORCA, we have practiced hands-off opining on many Anonymous news stories.  After the ORCA story, there are new rumbles from the Hackivist group.   The rumbles appear to show a bit of a kerfuffle between Wikileaks (often an organizations that Anonymous works to defend).

According to RT Dot Com, Anonymous is developing or has developed its own form of WIKILeaks.
The hacktivist collective Anonymous will reportedly launch TYLER – a 'secure, no cost and decentralized' online leaks release platform to circumvent problems inherent in WikiLeaks - on the day many (and Mayans) believe to be the end of the world.
Despite early support of Wikileaks and its founder Julius Assange, recent developments appear as a divide. (see link below for details (A great read..."by requiring payment")

According to unnamed hacker, the conflict between Anonymous and Julian Assange’s whistleblowing site revolves around the coercive fund raising techniques and a lack of transparency regarding WikiLeaks finances. 

Previously, Anonymous has been a longtime advocate of WikiLeaks and its founder Julian Assange, vocally supporting the website’s mission of sharing secret data, news leaks, and classified information with the public. 

However, information recently posted by Anonymous on says WikiLeaks "has chosen to dishonor and insult Anonymous and all information activists" by requiring payment to view documents it previously made available for free. 

But Anonymous is not a structured group with a defined leader – and the identity of the people behind the posts slamming WikiLeaks for asking for donations and various Twitter usernames remains unclear. The uncertainty has left many wondering whether these opinions represent the group as a whole, or just a few scattered members.
Tumblir Dot Com...has an interesting piece on CODE TYLER.

Anonymous - Project Mayhem 2012 (CODE TYLER)
Imagine we purchase a USB drive.Imagine we take it to our workplaces.Imagine we pretend we have to work late hours.Imagine we accumulate all sort of evidences about illegal deeds.

Anonymous - Project Mayhem 2012 (CODE TYLER)

Imagine we purchase a USB drive.

Imagine we take it to our workplaces.

Imagine we pretend we have to work late hours.

Imagine we accumulate all sort of evidences about illegal deeds.

 As I was seeking more information about the story, I ran across yet another ANONYMOUS Video.  (2:19 minutes)

A midst the disguised faces, use of electronically altered or computer generated voices, and probably a wealth of 'false lead' data plants to word off detection, it is interesting to follow the 'goings-on' in the hackivist and information leaks world.  

We find it also very unfortunate 'money', 'capital', or 'donations' may have come between two groups with a focus on , "Keeping-em-clean" (Our words).

Let's hope for the very best with TYLER and let's hope issue related to donations subside and do not stop the flow of information we would have no access to if left without a credible whistle-blower entity and a hackivist group with a history of working on the right side if history.


Monday, November 26, 2012

Election 2012: Battle Of Polling Databases, ORCA vs. NARHWAL

The Horror of  a Loss!

It is almost as if reflecting back on past wars.  No war has been won (for that matter lost) without strategy and strategic execution that involved intelligence (AKA INTEL). And, to the winner of the INTEL wars goes the spoils.  Political campaigns are much like a form of war.  The presidential campaigns leading to November 6th elections, certainly involved war-like strategy.  Both success in INTEL execution and failure to execute was evident throughout the 2012 Campaign. The Obama Team was successful; the Romney team failed miserably. While success and failures span many campaign fronts, campaign use of technology was an area that the Obama campaign won handily. No war is won without effective INTEL. Details of behind the scenes technology wars are starting to come forth.

Election 2012 was perpetrated with assistance from technology born just ahead of the 2008 Elections.  The Obama Administration and software professionals continued development of what has come to be known as Project Narwhal (and DreamCatcher). Romney's Polling INTEL came to be known as ORCA. In the end Romney's  system failed. As stated in previous TPI pieces and restated below,  Anonymous claims to have interfered with ORCA. Ultimately, and regardless of failure the system failed miserably. 

A team of high tech software engineers trumped the Romney ORCA Team and they went about their mission with the precision of well planned and executed military strategy. Yet, I am certain not one of the team credits their success to military like acumen. 

Meet the Obama Narwhal Team.

Three of the 40 engineers. 
They'd been working 14-hour days, six or seven days a week, trying to reelect the president, and now everything had been broken at just the wrong time.
Narwhal: high-tech 
voter-targeting system, 
after the Arctic sea mammal.
Josh Thayer, the lead engineer of Narwhal, had just been informed that they'd lost another one of the services powering their software. That was bad: Narwhal was the code name for the data platform that underpinned the campaign and let it track voters and volunteers. If it broke, so would everything else. (The Atlantic)
Josh Taylor is a member of a team of elite, talented and committed software professionals (Specialist and technicians) who worked behind the scenes to re-elect a president. 

The Atlantic's  
Alexis C. Madrigal  on November 16th, published an intriguing look at the innards of President Obama's technology team. It is impossible to fathom how President Obama could have garnered as many electoral votes as he factually won without the team of "30 somethings". 


(The Atlantic

When the Nerds Go Marching In
The election was still 17 days away, and this was a live action role playing (LARPing!) exercise that the campaign's chief technology officer, Harper Reed, was inflicting on his team. "We worked through every possible disaster situation," Reed said. "We did three actual all-day sessions of destroying everything we had built." 
Hatch was playing the role of dungeon master, calling out devilishly complex scenarios that were designed to test each and every piece of their system as they entered the exponential traffic-growth phase of the election. Mark Trammell, an engineer who Reed hired after he left Twitter, saw a couple game days. He said they reminded him of his time in the Navy. "You ran firefighting drills over and over and over, to make sure that you not just know what you're doing," he said, "but you're calm because you know you can handle your shit." 
The team had elite and, for tech, senior talent — by which I mean that most of them were in their 30s — from Twitter, GoogleFacebookCraigslistQuora, and some of Chicago's own software companies such as Orbitz and Threadless, where Reed had been CTO. But even these people, maybe *especially* these people, knew enough about technology not to trust it. "I think the Republicans fucked up in the hubris department," Reed told me. "I know we had the best technology team I've ever worked with, but we didn't know if it would work. I was incredibly confident it would work. I was betting a lot on it. We had time. We had resources. We had done what we thought would work, and it still could have broken. Something could have happened."
(Immizen View)
Reported as early as Feb, 2012 in a Slate article titled “Obama’s White Whale”, project Narwhal, Obama’s top-secret campaign project until then, featuring high tech data integration and data mining techniques,promised to change the ways in which campaigns are fought and won.

(Slate Dot Com) Feb 15, 2012 part of a project code-named Narwhal, Obama’s team is working to link once completely separate repositories of information so that every fact gathered about a voter is available to every arm of the campaign. Such information-sharing would allow the person who crafts a provocative email about contraception to send it only to women with whom canvassers have personally discussed reproductive views or whom data-mining targeters have pinpointed as likely to be friendly to Obama’s views on the issue.

 There are growing numbers of articles about the NARWHAL Vs. ORCA Systems, their missions and outcomes. I have posted a few links at article end.   I find the most informative a  piece about the two systems was written on November 12, 2012 by Tomi T. Ahoen, Orca meets Narwhal - How the Obama Ground Game Crushed Romney - A look behind the math.  

The article is very long and probably only suited for those who are enthralled with the inner workings of Presidential Elections Circa 2000 and forward.

Tomi T. Ahonen..... [Tread no farther if you abhor long reads]


Tuesday, November 20, 2012

ANONYMOUS, Thom Hartmann, Karl Rove's ORCA


Earlier in the week I published a piece about ANONYMOUS' claim of hacking Karl Rove's ORCA.  The piece included a situation summary of the "HACKTIVIST" group's claim that was written by an associate: Benjamin T. Moore.  As I was developing a follow-up piece, I was alerted of an even more descriptive piece from Mr. Moore.   I am posting Mr. Moore's piece, with permission,  from The Whirling

Any information related to the ANONYMUOS claims will involve a bit of reading.  Your reading is the output of much work by the writer in putting together a cogent treatise about ORCA, hacking into the system, and how, if true, the actions may have impacted our lives.  Therefore, the following is not a short read. As is always the case with The Progressive Influence, read a bit and comeback for additional reading.  This piece is one such piece!
Benjamin  T. Moore

How Anonymous Saved America and the World

thank you anonymous header How Anonymous Saved America and the Worldby Benjamin T. Moore, Jr.

How Anonymous Saved America and the World

Those of us who’ve been paying attention to our electoral process have noticed some very disturbing trends and subsequent anomalies. I am probably giving some indication of my age, but I grew up in the era of real voting booths, curtains, tabs and levers.

voting lever 01 300x190 How Anonymous Saved America and the World
One of the most important levers you will ever pull.

I remember as a child holding my mother’s hand in a voting booth and watching her flip the little tabs and then pull the lever which opened the curtains and registered her vote. My personal belief is that all parents should take their children to vote with them. It is good training and exposes them at an early age to the most important of our civic responsibilities.

I am not a technophobe. I fully appreciate progress and the role technology plays. Our population is growing, more and more people are voting and we still expect to know the outcomes of our elections on election night. The notion that we could count these votes by hand and still have timely results has become an unreachable proposition.

Enter Computers

Using computers to record and count the votes makes receiving timely results easy. If properly deployed, you could know the final count from any precinct the moment the last person in line votes. Computers are machines, they’re non-partisan and they’re extremely efficient crunching numbers.. or are they?

ed felton computer scientist uncovering flaw in voting machine 300x205 How Anonymous Saved America and the World
Computer Scientist Ed Felton uncovering a computer flaw in a New Jersey voting computer.

The facts are, computers have vulnerabilities too. For one, they will do whatever they’re programmed to do. If the person programming them is partisan, computers can be programmed to return partisan results. Computers can also be hacked. They can be given a virus which rewrites their code. I can look at another human being and tell if something is wrong with them. They may appear feverish, sluggish, their speech may be slurred, their eyes may be red. There are thousands of subtle signs we pick up allowing us to know that one of our fellow human beings is just not right. Computers? Not so much.

A computer can be programmed to switch votes to any candidate a programmer, hacker or virus writer chooses and the persons casting their votes would be none the wiser. In many jurisdictions which have now gone to all electronic voting, they have also passed laws mandating the destruction of the paper trail. Those places that use paper ballots where you darken in a circle beside your choice, feed them into an optical scanner, many of those jurisdictions have passed laws mandating the immediate destruction of the paper ballots. The question is why?

Hacking Democracy

joseph stalin quote on voting How Anonymous Saved America and the World
This has always been the hard reality of democracy.

In the words of Joseph Stalin, “those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything.” The way things work today is, you cast your vote either using a “touch screen” computer system or a paper ballot you’ve filled out and fed through an optical scanner. At the end of voting those electronic votes are sent over the Internet to a central computer where the votes from all the precincts are tabulated and the election results are published.


Sunday, November 18, 2012

Anonymous Claims To Have Killed Karl Rove's ORCA

Cross posted from Motley New Dot Net and linked to Occupy For Accountability Dot Org
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States License

{NOTE: Of course, we at the TPI have no way of knowing the extent to which the following is 100% accurate.  We will never know. If ANONYMOUS actually published the letter below and hacked into Karl Rove's servers, the following could be the full extent of what we will ever read. If Rove's organization knows the hacked  ORCA as true, he will never admit the attack, and damned certain will never admit to the ORCA nor being hacked.  There is one point that follows which is undeniable. Rove certainly freaked out on election night and a seasoned operative like Rove has to know elections swing as was the case in Ohio. The prospect  really does make me wonder. And, there-in lie my reasoning for publishing the following.  Whether we believe the story or not, we have to admit it is intriguing reading. Below, Benjamin T, Moore provides a non-technical explanation of how ANONYMOUS may have (if true) dealt with Rove's ORCA}

Anonymous Claims to Have Hacked into Karl Rove, ORCA Thus Stopping His Vote-Switching 

As expected, any Romney supporter (with heavy financing), was shocked at the final outcome from November 6th, the night President Obama retained his seat. We have all heard the whining, crying, finger-pointing, foul, and so on and so on. But there were a couple of items which stood out more than others.
We all know that Karl Rove flipped out on FOX News when they announced Obama won Ohio. The video is below if you haven’t seen it. Basically, Rove just could NOT understand what was happening, which is what I expected. Although he did have a very shocked “the sun just rose in the west” look on his face, and that is what surprised me. Even more shocking was hearing many top supporters and chiefs cry that Romney was supposed to win with a landslide. That is NOT what the polls had been showing the entire time.

Karl Rove Questions Ohio Call for Obama Victory

These cyber “protectors of what’s right” – who refers to themselves as “The Protectors” – said that they had been following the digital structure of Rove’s operation and of ORCA, a Republican get out the vote software application. After finding open “doors” in the systems, they created a “password protected firewall” called “The Great Oz,” and installed it on servers that Rove planned to use on election night to re-route and change election results “from three states.”
“ORCA Killer” was launched at 10am EST followed by “The Great Oz” at 8pm EST on November 6th. Both sides watched as ORCA crashed and failed throughout Election Day. Rove even mentions computer problems while on FOX News that night. Rove’s computer techs tried 105 times to penetrate “The Great Oz” using different means and passwords.
Is this what happened to Kerry back in 2004 in Ohio when he ran against Bush? A server went down for approximately 90 minutes. When it crashed, Kerry was clearly in the lead. When it finally booted back up, Bush had taken the lead. How? Read on for a theory.

The Ohio Computer Crash in 2004

On the night of 2-3 November, 2004, the computer designated to count Ohio votes was cut out of the loop. Its web address was diverted to a private company in Chattanooga, TN, named SMARTech.
The web redirection on Election Night of 2004 went a step beyond this: Not only did the official website of the Ohio Department of State look just right, but it had the right address: . Any citizen or press service looking for real time election results from the state of Ohio would have been directed here. In every sense, this SMARTech site became the official vote tabulation for the state of Ohio.
SMARTech leases computer servers to the Republican National Committee, and the 12-digit ISP address to which the Ohio Department of State was diverted for the 2004 vote count falls between two ranges known to be leased to the RNC. This raises the suspicion that it was an RNC computer, impersonating the state of Ohio computer, that performed the official vote tabulation in 2004. This diversion is so unusual (and brazen!) a ruse, that it is inconceivable that it happened without Blackwell’s explicit consent.
Perhaps Anonymous decided that these spoiled rich boys could no longer have their thieving, cheating way any longer. Here is the letter which was supposedly put out by Anonymous explaining how they hacked the hack. LOVE IT!!!  Oh, click on the image to pull up a PDF file.

  • Supposed ANONYMOUS letter about hacking Karl Rove's computer servers.(CLICK for larger view)

     Click for full letter. 

    Motley News Dot Net read more.

    Occupy For Accountability Dot Org reports Anonymous warned Rove about use of his system two weeks prior to the election.


    Benjamin T Moore Jr


    • During the weeks running up to election night, I was asked by numerous people if I thought President Obama was going to win. My response was a qualified "yes!" The reason it was *qualified* was because I have been aware of "Black Box Voting Fraud." If you do not know what that is, Google it. In brief, it has been proven that these electronic voting systems we've gone to can be hacked rather easily.

      There is even a documentary about this showing how it is done. Furthermore, in almost every jurisdiction where these systems have been put in place, a law has been passed to immediately *destroy* the hard copy records of votes so that *only* the digital records remain. WHY??? The reasons are rather obvious... if you get to a situation requiring a recount, you just hit the "tabulate key" and the computer spits out the exact same results as the last time. Thus, no actual recount occurs. Nobody actually looks at the hard copy paper ballots, it is all digital. A virus or a skilled hacker can make the vote come out any way you want it to for a fee.


      In order for this scheme to work successfully, you *NEED* to make people believe that the election is *close.* When people *believe* that the outcome could have gone either way, they are less likely to contest the results and do a forensic investigation on the machines if the results go against them.

      I watched poll after poll - usually conservative polls - showing that the race was extremely tight and some *always* put Romney ahead by a point or two. This concerned me because this was the *EXACT* scenario I envisioned necessary to pull off electronic voting fraud. I am a fan of Nate Silver's 538 Blog which has proven it's self the most accurate and reliable polling site for several election cycles now. Nate Silver - who was proven exactly right - didn't even have Romney close. Gallup, Rasmussen and other's always had Romney extremely close or ahead. Both positions could not be correct. Numbers are numbers and there are only so many things you can do to them before you begin erasing the actual numbers and putting the ones you want in place.

      Nate Silver shows his numbers and explains his methodology clearly. His approach is highly transparent. Anyone can fact check him and do the calculations for themselves. Not so much with some of the other polling sites and in particular those sites that showed a close race or a Romney lead. So, yes, looking at the way things were shaping up... I had some concerns!


      It seems that I was not alone in my suspicions and concerns. The Hacker Group known as Anonymous was watching and working behind the scenes as well. They had discovered a piece of software known as ORCA that had been inserted by Karl Rove's operation in what is known as a "man in the middle" attack. The man in the middle attack works like this. Say you're mailing a letter to someone and you place your letter in mailbox to send it to them. Unbeknown to you, *I* own that mailbox. I collect your letter, read it, change it and send it on to whomever you're corresponding with. They *THINK* their letter is from you, but it is really from me. They respond. When their letter gets to *my* mailbox, I open it, read it and change it and send it on to you. The end result is you and your friend *believe* you're communicating directly with one another, when in essence you're communicating with me.

      This is what ORCA was designed to do. The votes from the Ohio precincts were being sent into Ohio's election tabulation center... or so they thought. Orca was designed to redirect those precinct results to RNC computers located in Tennessee. There the numbers could be changed to show a Romney win and *NOBODY* would have been the wiser.

      The Hacker group Anonymous stepped in and blocked ORCA by placing a firewall into the software thus preventing ORCA from functioning or being accessed by Karl Rove and his team of miscreants. This is why Karl was so shocked on election night. This is why he disputed Ohio because he *knew*... or as it turns out, he *THOUGHT* he knew that the fix was in. This is also why Mitt Romney was in shock! He had been assured that he was going to be the winner. He had already *paid* for the election.

      I'm not religious... but I will say, "THANK GOD FOR ANONYMOUS!" I love you guys!!!!

      The Progressive Influence. "If the report is true  I join Mr. Moore in....ANONYMOUS I love you guys!"