The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label PPP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PPP. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

"Make America Great Again?"

Blogger Widgets'Made America Great Again?'.... just 34% think he has 'Made America Great Again,' while 55% think he has not. 

America we have a grave problem!
General Attitudes Toward Trump: 
Only 40% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 54% who disapprove. For the first time we find more voters (48%) in support of impeaching Trump than there are (41%) opposed to the idea. Only 43% of voters think Trump is actually going to end up serving his full term as President, while 45% think he won't, and 12% aren't sure one way or the other. 
Voters are both having buyer's remorse about the outcome of the 2016 election and wishing they could return to the good old days of 4 months ago. By an 8 point margin, 49/41, they say they wish Hillary Clinton was President instead of Trump. And by a 16 point margin, 55/39, they say they wish Barack Obama was still in office instead of Trump. 
One thing hurting Trump is that Americans expect honesty from their President and his aides, and they feel like they're not getting it. Last week Trump tweeted that it was unreasonable to expect his press staff to always tell the truth, but 77% of voters say they do expect the President's Press Secretaries to tell the truth all the time compared to only 14% who say that isn't that expectation. Only 38% of voters say they consider Trump to be honest, to 55% who say they don't think he is. And a majority of voters (51%) outright say they consider Trump to be a liar to 41% who say they disagree with that characterization. 
One issue that's not going away is Trump's failure to release his tax returns. 62% of voters continue to think he needs to release them, to only 29% who think it's not necessary for him to. 61% would even support a law requiring candidates for President to release 5 years of tax returns in order to appear on the ballot, with just 28% opposed to such a provision. 
When it comes down to it voters don't think Trump has delivered on the core promise of his campaign- just 34% think he has 'Made America Great Again,' while 55% think he has not.

Monday, February 20, 2017

Presidential Polling: Trump Headed South

Image result for polls polls and polls

Poll numbers anyone?  Do you Trump's most spoken word as he rolled over his sad cadre of GOP opponents: "polls." He hasn't mentioned the "polls" since assume the Oval Office. And, actually, his poll numbers are slipping badly.

Last week Public Policy Polling (PPP)  published piece regarding the first three weeks of Trump in the White House. The findings were stark and revealing. Of more significance, the polling data (without specificity) has to include results from people who voted for Trump.

Americans Now Evenly Divided on Impeaching Trump
PPP's new national poll finds that Donald Trump's popularity as President has declined precipitously just over the last two weeks. On our first poll of his Presidency voters were evenly divided on Trump, with 44% approving of him and 44% also disapproving. Now his approval rating is 43%, while his disapproval has gone all the way up to 53%. If voters could choose they'd rather have both Barack Obama (52/44) or Hillary Clinton (49/45) instead of Trump. 
Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6. Read more, here.
Gallup also performed its standard weekly review of presidential polling. The numbers looked equally bleak. Gallup also performs a running review of approval ratings for past presidents. Trump is also losing that review

Why are the pool numbers as such? The answer isn't clear, but a couple of points are irrefutable. First, the numbers indicate a significant number of Trump voters have (albeit temporarily) soured on their reality show entertainer.  It makes one wonder if Nielsen shouldn't run a month to month review of American viewing of Trump. The nation's 45th President also has scored a number of geopolitical FUBARs since taking office: cabinet nominees, the failed mission in Yemen, and frequent weekend jaunts to his Florida mansion.  We shouldn't, however, overlook day to day fact checking which has yet to lean in his favor. One other damaging factor: a set of public presstitutes who couldn't effectively represent the Pope. 

Image result for conway and spicer

In addition to notable cases of ineptitude in political governance, Trump has managed some really horrific decision on the nation. His go ahead on the failed Yemen Seal mission offered insight into his decision-making. Reports are President Obama did not authorize the mission on several occasions based on discomfort with the prospect of a successful mission. Trumps go ahead resulted in the death of two Americans (one a Navy Seal). The failed mission also was reported to have resulted in the death of 30 plus citizen non-combatants.

Take a look at how modern US Presidents have polled in Mid-February after taking office in late January.

Image may contain: 4 people

Can the nation actually wait to see if the nation's 45th President actually possess any competency at running the free world? Or, will we settle for four years of entertainment while the GOP takes the nation back to the 1940s and Trump deploys thousands of our kids and grand kids to the Middle East?

Friday, December 9, 2016

Trumpenstein And His Legends: The "Reality Gap", Veracity, Lack Of Interest And Dangerous Devotion

Image result for trump sheeple

A recent Public Policy Polling (PPP) national poll reveals telling information. PPP polling is historically among the most accurate polling in the United States. Yet, I really do not find a poll with only 1224 respondents a tool with results that I will take to any bank. However, the PPP results offer a peep into the psyche which has our nation headed to leadership from a showman, a pathological liar, and an egomaniac who exudes greedy and money grabbing. While a matter for other posts, those same voters handed the nation over to a person who has obvious biases which actually verge of racists (far surpassing simple bigotry). We offer a few items Maddow's team developed from the poll as an introduction along with Maddow's noteworthy commentary.

First, the PPP poll shows a moderate majority of poll respondents have a less than favorable opinion of Donald Trump.

Now consider voters who voted for Trump, albeit the chart is a bit of a slam dunk. They voted for Trump, right?

An obvious finding.

 Maddow then moved to a charted pictorial of how Trump supporters feel about President Obama.  Needless to say, the "Favorable" chart element dropped exponentially and the "Unfavorable" Element skyrocketed. A surprise? Why? Can you actually fashion your mind to believe that any Trump supporter would find any good qualities in President Obama? As a minimum, he is the nation's African-American president and while elected twice and national polling shows a moderately favorable rating, you cannot admit to a surprise that Trump voters find Obama far less than favorable (republican voters also but to a lesser dip than Trumpugs)?
As Maddow and her staff adroitly takes you through the following video pay particular attention Maddow's comments about how Trump supporters react to question about the stock market and about the unemployment rate since President Obama took office on January 20, 2009.  The commentary is both startling and dangerous while validating posts we have posted this week (Post A: Trump Lying a Prelude To The Future, Post B: Information Management From A Carnival Barker ).  The essence of those posts?  If you tell a lie enough, it becomes mindset truth.  Also, there exist a segment from a former popular TV show (that I never watched) which speaks volumes about the misinformation and lies the American voter has bitten into like a nice juicy slice of Apple Pie.

Now for the Maddow segment.  We should recognize that the Maddow segment doesn't appear to address the real issues related to Trump's election: no voters and voters who voted third party.  after the 6:52-minute mark of the following video Maddow's commentary becomes searingly indicting related to the Trump voter psyche. Trump's "alternate reality" is as real as Trump's comb over.

The segment ends with a poignant and cogent assessment of the danger of the "Trump voter's psyche", successful in feeding his voters a false/alternate reality, and Trump's potential for the Presidency as a revenue 'cash cow."

If you are not inclined to visit with the Maddow segment take this chart with you and spend a few minutes thinking about the message.  Trump's voters have no real objection to his use of the Presidency as a potential cash cow.

They literally do not care about any level of scrutiny of a money grabbers potential to economically rape the US Presidency. 

Fake news sites (common on social media) and the outrageously insane manifestation of radio hosts like Limbaugh and Alex Jones feed the Trump information mill like a 360-degree flight of a boomerang. The insane demagogues feed their listeners (and viewers) pure lies. Trump picks up the lies either via personally listening to the radio shows or via his Twitter feed; the essence of the insanity then works its way into Trump personal propaganda ministry (Bannon, Conway et al). Lies and misinformation breed the uninformed. The uninformed have proven to be as dangerous supporters of past horrors such as Hitler, and leaders in Rwanda how perpetrated the killing of 800,000 on its citizens. 

How else could Trump's voters believe the market has dropped since Obama took office?How is it possible the polled Trump supporters do not know that unemployment is at a seven-year low? How about the ultimate reality of Trump supporters and their potential impact on the nation going forward.  Indifference to corruptions and national fascism are the by-products of an uninformed leader-worshipping populace. 

Herewith are a couple of examples of how Trump's personal fascism is spreading across the Untied States. Do you recall the woman who alleged that Trump took sexual advantage of her at the age of thirteen?  She dropped out of a planned television interview mere hours before the broadcast based on threats from Trump strongmen-like supporters. Here is another example of how the communications machine leads to undemocratic criminal acts. Do you recall the Pizzagate incident a couple of weeks back, a deranged conservative nut case actually went to a New York City pizzeria armed for an intervention against an alleged Children sex trafficking ring led by Hillary Clinton? The genesis of such trash? Visit the link two paragraphs up.  Another example? 

Today, the Washington Post reported on an incident from a town hall meeting a year ago. The young woman in the audience who felt Trump "isn't a friend to women" received death threats the morning after Trump tweeted about the interaction.

The horrors of growing fascism in the United States is fueled by an unknowing and uncaring voting bloc which when coupled with "cry-baby" Bernie of Busters, third-party voters and the voting apathetic.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Clinton Vs The Field?

The Statistikhengst has again visited the TPI with an update of CLINTON against the FIELD (Democrat and Republican)

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond

23 JULY 2015

2015-07-022 PPP (D) national poll

On the heels of the first part of an ABC/WAPO poll showing Clinton at +6 over Jeb Bush and +16 over him in a theoretical three-way race with Donald Trump as an Independent, PPP (D), undisputably the best pollster from 2012, has released it's latest national poll, and it is interesting.

This .pdf is 108 pages long. I recommend that you download the .pdf and view it with a program like Adobe in order to find the page numbers more quickly.

pp 1-2: General Summary
pp.3-61: GOP nomination
pp. 62-73: DEM nomination
pp. 74-end: General election and assorted additional internals

1,087 RV for the GE matchups, MoE = +/-3.0
Republican nomination: 524 RRV, MoE = +/-4.3
Democratic nomination: 496 DRV, MoE = +/-4.4

There is a lot of information from this poll to glean.  

Two caveats, just to save time:

1.) It's just one poll, but it is the 85th national poll since the 1st poll was released on December 5, 2012, more than 2.5 years ago. There have now been, including this PPP (D) poll, a sum-total of 365 head-to-head matchups from the 85 polls, and Hillary has won 356 of them (97.53% of all matchups), the GOP has won 6 matchups (1.64% of all matchups) and there were 3 absolute ties (0.83%). Virtually all of the Clinton wins have been outside the MoE of any given poll, and the vast majority of them have been +5 or well above.  So, yes, it's just one poll, but it is well in-line with 2.5 of electoral polling history. No candidate in our entire history has been polled in the early phase for a presidential cycle as much as Hillary Clinton. That is a historical fact.

2.) Any statement I make, based on the data from the poll, automatically means "according to this PPP (D) poll". I'm not going to write it every time, that just wastes time and energy. Everyone knows that I am referring to this poll.

Why so much information? Well, because no other pollster is willing to release so many internals as PPP.

In a nutshell: Hillary's favorability is bad (-10), but it is so far better than favorability for the majority of GOP candidates so that it is as if it plays no role.  In DEM nomination polling, as expected, Hillary easily sweeps the field of 5 declared candidates. In GOP nomination polling, Donald Trump is on top of a very large field. But in GE election polling, where Hillary wins over every single candidate with whom she is matched up, from +3 to +13, Donald Trump does absolutely the worst, at -13 behind Hillary. And in a theoretical 3-way matchup: Clinton / Bush / Trump, she beats Bush by +18 and Trump is almost tied with Bush, ala 1992 and 1912, but with a much, much, much larger margin.

That was the nutshell. Now, here are the specifics.



among Democrats: Fav 69 / unfav 22, +47 (p. 62 of the .pdf)
by gender among Democrats: women - fav 72 / unfav 19, +53, men - fav 65 / unfav 27, +38

However, among all voters, Hillary is deeply underwater: Fav 41 / unfav 51, -10 (p.74, pdf)
That is a bad fav rating to have and normally would indicate that a candidate is losing, and badly at that. This is mostly because while we expect her to triumph in the Liberal vote and get crushed in the conservative vote (which is the case), she is deeply underwater in the moderate vote:

Fav 39 / unfav 48, -9 (p.83, .pdf)

Only, most of the Republican candidates are doing far, far worse than Hillary in favorability ratings among the same general election RVs:

Carson: Fav 31 / unfav 34, -3
Walker: Fav 31 / unfav 38, -7
Rubio: Fav 31 / unfav 40, -9
Fiorina: Fav 21 / unfav 33, -12
Cruz: Fav 27 / unfav 45, -18
Paul: Fav 27 / unfav 45, -18
Huckabee: Fav 27 / unfav 49, -22
Bush: Fav 26 / unfav 52, -26
Trump: Fav 29 / unfav 60, -31
Christie: Fav 19 / unfav 61, -42

So, all of the GOP candidates are also underwater, but 7 of those 10 are doing worse than Hillary. If you think that Trump's fav deficit is the largest, you are wrong. At -31, that is a terrible statistic for any candidate, but Chris Christie is doing far worse, at -42. And the level of deficit does not correspond to any hard data in the general election matchups (see: below). For instance, Carson is only at -3, but still loses to Clinton by 8 points in the GE. Both Paul and Cruz are at -18 in fav/unfav and yet, Paul does very well against Clinton, is usually in low single digits behind her, where Cruz does considerably worse. This tells me that fav/unfav is only one consideration in the voters' mind and that fav/unfav does not translate 1:1 to electability/unelectability.

Back to Hillary's national fav/unfav: 41 / 51, -10. Among women, nationally, all GE voters, she is also underwater, 44 / 48, -4, but remember, she was way up among Democratic women, which means she is getting crushed among Conservative women and probably also underwater among moderate women in order to get to this statistic. Among men, she is at -15 (39 / 54), and yet, she wins every single matchup against all GOP comers and often is also ahead in the men's vote as well. That is an important data point, will be detailed later.

So, fav/unfav ratings only play a subordinate role in all of this. The data shows it very clearly.

You can see the gender internals for all candidates in this rubrik starting on p.86 of the .pdf.

DEM nomination

Clinton 57
Sanders 22
undecided 12
Webb 5
Chafee 3
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +35

The polling shows a slight gain for Sanders, but a +35 margin is still a crushing blowout margin and Clinton's topline remains right up there close to the 60 mark, where it has been pretty much all the time. This race is non-competitive.

GOP nomination
Trump 19
Walker 17
Bush, Jeb 12
Rubio 10
Carson 10
Huckabee 8
Paul 4
Cruz 4
Fiorina 4
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Undecided 2
Perry 1
Santorum 1
Jindal 1
Gilmore, Graham and Pataki 0

Margin: Trump +2

With a MoE of +/-4.3, this is actually a statistical tie between Trump and Walker. Whether or not this is a post-announcement bounce for Walker remains to be seen. But only five GOP candidates of 17 are in double digits. Paul has lost steam, but Fiorina has actually ticked-up a bit. This is one of the first times that Kasich has been polled and he clocks in at 3 for a start, let's see where he goes.

General Election matchups

values in parentheses are from the previous PPP poll, from June 16, 2015, where applicable.

Clinton 45 (47) / Paul 42 (40), margin = Clinton +3 (+7)
Clinton 46 (46) / Rubio 41 (43), margin = Clinton +5 (+3)
Clinton 46 (45) / Bush 41 (41), margin = Clinton +5 (+4)
Clinton 46 (46) / Walker 41 (42), margin = Clinton +5 (+4)
Clinton 46 (47) / Huckabee 40 (42), margin = Clinton +6 (+5)Clinton 47 (46) / Carson 39 (41), margin = Clinton +8 (+5)
Clinton 48 (48) / Cruz 40 (42), margin = Clinton +8 (+2)
Clinton 46 (45) / Christie 38 (41), margin = Clinton +8 (+4)
Clinton 47 (46) / Fiorina 37 (40), margin = Clinton +10 (+6)
Clinton 50  / Trump 37margin = Clinton +13

And a three-way matchup, with Trump running as a possible Independent:

Clinton 45 Bush 25 / Trump 23, margin = Clinton +18

That is the second three-way matchup released in as many days. If we compared that to the ABC/WAPO matchup from July 20th, 2015:

Clinton 46 Bush 30 / Trump 20, margin = Clinton +16

First, in all ten one-to-one matchups, Hillary wins all of them, and only one win, against Rand Paul, is right at the cusp of the MoE (+/-3.0). She wins with margins from +3 to +13. Three of those margins are +5, 3 of them are +8. 9of those ten margins are better than President Obama's 2012 win, and five of them are also better than Obama's 2008 win. Clinton's winning margin compared to the last PPP (D) has improved in 9 of 10 matchups, the exception being the Clinton/Paul matchup, where Paul comes the closest to her, but has really slipped in GOP nomination polling, the first piece of evidence for the "Trumpian Divide"

The second piece of evidence are Trump's numbers themselves: Trump is at the top of the poll for the Republican nomination, or better put, at a statistical tie with Scott Walker, but is absolutely at the bottom in presidential matchups and this is not the first poll to show this, either. This is now the sixth poll to show Trump far behind Hillary in GE-matchups, and indeed, by a large double digit margin. That being said, this losing margin is smaller than the margins recorded in the Suffolk Poll (-17), the CNN poll (-24), the The FOX NEWS poll (-17), but larger than the yougov/Economist poll (-11).m There was also a Quinnipiac taken 3 weeks before Trump's entry into the race (-18).

And just for comparison, although I am sure that Bernie Sanders (D) is not going to get the Democratic nomination, in a matchup against Trump, Sanders also wins by +10, 47/37. That says something.

In all of these matchups, there is a story to be told in womens' vote vs. the men's vote, and it is a story not quite what people expect to hear. The numbers show that Hillary still has room to grow in the women's vote, where she has often been at +20 above her GOP challengers, but way behind in the men's vote. But here, often, the men's vote margins are smaller than usual, and she is often AHEAD in the men's vote, which is the bad message for the GOP.

Hillary vs. GOP, women's vote vs. mens vote:

vs. Bush: women +9, men -1
vs. Carson: women +11, men +5
vs. Christie: women +12, men +4
vs. Cruz: women +10, men +6
vs. Fiorina: women +16, men +2
vs. Huckabee: women +7, men +5
vs. Paul: women +10, men -4
vs. Rubio: women +7, men +3
vs. Trump: women +21, men +4
vs. Walker: women +11, men -1

Those internals can be found starting on p. 88 of the .pdf.

In only 3 of 10 matchups does Clinton lose in the men's vote. This is critical, because it means that the healthy margins we are seeing for the former Secretary of State are not just being generated by large margins in the women's vote. In fact, 5 of those margins (vs. Bush, Huckabee, Rubio, Cruz and Paul) are SMALLER than Obama's +11 in the womens' vote from 2012. Obama lost in the male vote in 2012. If this statistic maintains over the next year, then the GOP has a real problem on it's hand, because the assumption is that in order to at least make the race competitive, the GOP needs to win the men's vote handily.

What is missing from the matchups, what I would like to have seen, would have been a Clinton / Kasich matchup and still, a Clinton / Perry matchup.

AFTER all matchup questions, PPP asked the following:

33. Do you agree or disagree with the comments Donald Trump made about John McCain over
the weekend?

Agree 16 / disagree 60 / don't know 23, margin = disagree +44

So, the long and short of it is that Hillary is still easily cruising to the DEM nomination, the GOP field is still unsettled, but 5 candidates appear to have nestled themselves into the top tier, Clinton easily beats the GOP field in GE matchups and the double paradox exists within the GOP field: the guy likely to come the closest to Hillary is tanking in GOP nomination polling, and the guy who is at the top of GOP polling does the worst against Hillary, aka, the Trumpian Divide.

More internals at the poll.  Again, it is just one poll, but it says alot.


Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Pubic Policy Polling: Jindal Among The Lowest Rated Governors

Public Policy Polling is a 'left-leaning' polling authority. Let's state that fact and move it aside. 

PPP conducted a recent political polling survey. President Obama's polling results came-in at 41% approval, while A democratic Governor and a Republican governor shared the survey 'pits' with scores at the 28% or less level. The democratic Governor is Pat Quinn of Illinois. The Republican Governor is none other than "We appear stupid." Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. Jindal garnered the 28 % approval rating.

Losers all in a row!

If I am not mistaken, Jindal's name has been or is being floated as one of the GOP's presidential "wanna bees."  PPP's survey data should send Jindal's advisers and handlers into a scramble comparable to an uncovered and exposed ant mound. 

PPP has provided Talking Points Memo exclusive access to the polling data.

We are linking the TPM piece and providing embed copies of results related to the "diminished" Jindal.  Why not expend keyboarding and posting time on Pat Quinn, Democrat? Quinn has no apparent designs on the White House and he has not been as vocal as Gov. Jindal in refusing ACA benefits to his constituents. 

Scribd via TPM Links:

PPP Louisiana poll, August 2013 by tpmdocs

Even as I consider the sad state of affairs among the top GOP "quasi" declared presidential hopefuls, Jindal has to be the very longest of shots.