The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label Polling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polling. Show all posts

Friday, October 27, 2017

Polls, Polls, Polls....Trump Devolves

As Trump devolves, or, if you prefer, dissolves into a public opinion abyss, we think it is time to catch up on the extent of the decent.

First, a reminder of the man, his psyche and his embarrassing reality.

Let's start our review with a poll from the GOP and Trump's communication and propaganda outlet: Fox News.

Overall, the poll shows continued approval slippage among poll respondents. A critical consideration of the poll results is the respondent group probably includes people who voted from Trump.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 1,005 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from October 22-24, 2017.

The image above doesn't is stark but pales when compared against a trend review of Trump's approval/disapproval over a period of time. Herewith is a copy of the trend cut from a full Fox News Poll report pdf file.

Fox News Editors are quick to attribute Trump's most recent poll results to our summer storms. The excerpt above seems to poke a hole in that result assessment.

Morning Consult Poll

The poll surveyed 1,988 registered voters and from Oct. 19 to 23 — at the height of the controversy over Trump’s phone call to Myeshia Johnson and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points

Majorities say Trump is ‘reckless,’ not ‘honest’

Does ___ apply to Trump?YesNo
Strong leader39%50%
Too liberal12%67%
Too conservative26%52%
Keeps his promises34%50%
Cares about people like me34%53%
The Hill

 The latest Harvard-Harris survey

The Harvard-Harris Poll online survey of 2,159 registered voters was conducted between Oct. 14 and Oct. 18. The partisan breakdown is 36 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, 28 percent independent and 4 percent other.

The Harvard–Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

The Military Times also reports on survey results among a respondent group of active military. StumbleUpon

Monday, July 17, 2017

Trump: Data Is So Hurtful (Travel, Polling et al)

On July 14th, Judicial Watch published a piece with a headline which includes Trump travels total $3.58 million.  Remarkable, eh?

 Judicial Watch President

  • Melania Trump flew to Mar-a-Lago between February 3-6 on a C-37B military jet at an operating cost of $10,075 per hour for six hours. The total comes to $60,450.
  • Vice President Pence flew Air Force Two 5.58 hours to Houston for the Super Bowl between February 3-6 at an operating cost of $15,994 per hour, for a total of $89,246.52.
  • Melania Trump flew from New York to Washington DC on February 10 to join her husband on Air Force One for the trip to Mar-a-Lago. She departed on February 12 for New York on a C-37A jet for a weekend total of 7.09 hours at $10,075 per hour, bringing the cost to $71,431.75.
  • President Trump flew Air Force One 5.7 hours to Mar-a-Lago between February 17-21 at an operating cost of $142,380 per hour, for a total of $811,566.
  • Melania Trump flew from New York to Mar-a-Lago between February 17-21. One leg she flew 5.63 hours on a C-37B military jet at an operating cost of $10,075 per hour for a total of $56,722.25 and on the other leg she flew 5.57 hours on a C-40B jet at $5,450 per hour for a total of $30,356.50. The grand total is $87,078.75.
  • President Trump flew 4.1 hours on Air Force One to Mar-a-Lago between March 17-19 at $142,380 per hour, for a total of $583,758.
In response to a Judicial Watch FOIA request, the Air Force produced the following record:
  • President Trump entertained Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at Mar-a-Lago between February 10-13 where they played a round of golf. They flew Air Force One 4.2 hours at $142,380 per hour for a total of $597,996.
Judicial Watch previously released documents showing travel expenses of $1,281,420.

Judicial Watch also closely Obama family travel costs throughout his presidency.  In response to a June 19, 2014, Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request, Judicial Watch recently received documents from the Secret Service related to Michelle Obama’s March 2014 trip to China. The total Secret Service expenses adds up to $389,931.71:
  • $288,662.07 in hotels
  • $72,701.14 in car rentals
  • $5,020.52 in cell phone charges
  • $4,282.65 in rental reproduction equipment
  • $393.52 in printers and toners
  • $1,010.63 in cell phone rentals
  • $199.17 in supplies
  • $11,266.38 in overtime/per diem pay
  • $1,265.13 in miscellaneous services by another government agency
  • $5,130.50 in Air/Rail
Let's digress a bit for Trump's Presidential privilege travel (with self-patronizing of his properties). How about a Mondy morning review of where we are regarding Trump's approval ratings. 

Not so good frankly. We are sure Trump really loves it.

Bloomberg in two-minutes:

ABC News/Washington Post poll (in 2:43 minutes)

Behavior tells a bunch about a person. The ABC News/Washington Post poll led to these graphics from  ABC dot com.

It also seems Trump's Twitter toy isn't working for a majority of survey respondents. Of course, his base loves it, but we know of his base; now don't we? 

Image result for MSNBC washington post poll

After six months in office, Trump has the lowest approval rating since the beginning of sophisticated political polling. Now, that is something he can brag about. How about a look back at the past three Administrations.

Trump: -22 
Obama: +22 
Bush W: +21

The Washington Post poll with findings which should not only validate other polls, the findings should send a message to Trump and Company.

CNN capture a 50-50 vote of Trump regret during one of its recent Trump voter focus group. 


Problem America?

Trump Theme Week
Trump's "Made in America Week." He actually has the gall to bring that up.

MSNBC July 17, 2017


Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Enough Is Enough (Polling Tweet While Ignoring Dead Sailors)

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Image result for enough is enough
While it doesn't surprise Trump would show little or less concern about the loss of seven Navy sailors (due to an accident), it should be noted he has yet to comment on the Mosque killing via truck by a white man in Britain.  

At this point, many writers would ask when do we reach the level of patience overload. Trump's deeply sycophant minions will never reach a threshold of intolerance with Trump's obvious misplacement in the White House. Yet, many polling authorities are reporting Trump's  rapid devolving, or better dissolving, of approval and Satisfaction ratings over the past few weeks. 

Today's release of Trump polling via the CBS News website illustrates the dire state of Trumpism. CBS News Site developers indicate Trump's handling of the Russia investigation is leading the Alka-Seltzer effect.


Saturday, June 17, 2017

Trump Loves Rasmussen Poll (Almost As Much As Twitter)

Image result for alternative facts meme

We have consistently offered posts regarding Trump's declining poll numbers. We feel it only fair to post about Trump's excitement with a recent Rasmussen poll. 

Yes, you know Rasmussen, I know Rasmussen, and yes, Trump also knows Rasmussen; yet the Rasmussen straw on the water's surface must be appealing as he sinks into the murk of his own doing. Well, let's say it fits feeding his sycophant base as I stated you and I know Rasmussen.

 Trump tweeted yesterday.
Our recent past polling posts: Winning, Winning, Winning 

 Quick Hits: Poll Watch

Gallup On Trump

All of that said, let's work with Rasmussen, (just a bit).

538 Blogs 2012 ratings and review of political polling.

No automatic alt text available.

Clearly apparent, Rasmussen on polled a bunch. The polling yielded a 538 assessment of a heavy Republican lean (see R +3.7).  Also notice the Average Error rating: 4.2.  We admit that Gallup's 7.2 Avg Error and R+7.2 Republican lean, is very perplexing and contrary to the current Gallup lean which is slight left lean.

In 2016, 538 revisited offer another comprehensive review of national public polling. Rasmussen scored similarly, but did show an "Accurate Race Calling" at 79 percent.

Let's visit with a person who probably knows quite a bit about polling methodology. (We posted the comment as it is posted on Quora).

Quora (2012)
Cell phone polling is surprisingly accurate, though internet polling has reintroduced a lot of the same problems direct mail survey responses faced. putting aside the tendency to overemphasize response rate (the generality of responsiveness is far more important). That sai,d there are two types of polls--one which attempts to predict a future event--for which 'crowdsourcing' techniques tend to be fairly good, and a barometer of current public opinion, which tends to be really bad. The latter is problematic because 1) people don't know much about political issues, and 2) most people don't even have coherent and fully formed opinions on those issues. Therefore, they utilize heuristics and shortcuts, and are susceptible to the question wording and framing. Unfortunatley, the latter are usually put forth by journalists. 
Trump grabbing and bannering Rasmussen is as disingenuous as his sending Sean Spicer to the White House Press Room days after his inauguration to declare he attracted the largest crowds eve.  Of course, if you are a Trump supporter, lover or worshipper, you will find his grabbing Rasmussen's polling an acceptable (and desirable) alternative fact.


Friday, February 24, 2017

Quinnipiac Survey: Poll Majority Trust Media Over Trump

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He attacks the media, yet he is fortunate the media has not yet focused on his total commitment to pursuits of leisure Vs the job of the Oval Office.

The fake news media is not my enemy, it is the enemy of the people"

Well, actually CNN Media is reporting on a Quinnipiac survey with results not so favorable for the NYC bloviator (Who now occupies the White House).

Quinnipiac's survey found that 52% of voters trust the media more than they trust Trump, while only 37% said they trusted Trump more. Among Democrats, 86% said they trusted the media more than the president. 
But among Republican voters, the balance is flipped: 78% said they trusted Trump more than the media, while just 13% said they trusted the media more.
trump quinnipiac poll

AOL News also reported on Trump's Vs. the media regarding trust and believability.  

Of course, Trump and his cadre will not criticize Fox News.  Wonder why?

It works!


Monday, September 5, 2016

Mediaite And Trump's Phantom Poll

Repost from Mediaite

Trump Tweets Out Nonexistent Poll Showing Him Up In Ohio