The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

All Things Trump: 10,000 Lies

   Image result for pinocchio gif nose

It has been just over two years since Trump occupied the Oval Office and the US Presidency. Records, polls and " ...the best ever" have been his common and most uttered babbling over the past few years. Well, he has now ascended to a level in the US Presidency which has never been so high and will never fall to another US President.

The Washington Post has fact-checked Trump to the 10,000 lies level. ASTONISHING and shameful at the very same time.

Is there any wonder current polling is showing a deep lack of interest in reelecting the carnival barker so call "President"The Independent UK.

Let's end with a link to the Washington Post piece. 

The Washington Post:  President Trump has made more than 10,000 false or misleading claims


Monday, March 18, 2019

As Trump's World Turns: The POLLS?

Marquee Scroll>57 Percent Want A New Leader In The White House

Trump at one time-loved to quote "the polls" or "the ratings".  We haven't heard those words form the nation's 45th President in many months. Every wonder why?

Maybe a recent poll leads us to an answer.

In May 2018 the FiveThirtyEight Blog( Nate Silver) published what follows.

Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018

How prolific pollsters have fared in recent elections
Advanced Plus-Minus scores for pollsters’ surveys conducted for elections on Nov. 8, 2016, and later
Monmouth UniversityLive244.8-1.5D+3.9
Emerson CollegeIVR514.1-1.0D+1.2
Siena CollegeLive184.0-0.9D+1.5
Landmark CommunicationsIVR/online144.4-0.6D+4.3
Marist CollegeLive173.7-0.6D+1.5
Trafalgar GroupIVR/online/live154.0-0.1R+0.8
Opinion SavvyIVR/online114.3+0.1D+2.8
Quinnipiac UniversityLive264.4+0.1D+4.2
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchIVR/online555.1+0.4D+3.6
CNN/Opinion Research Corp.Live104.3+0.6D+1.4
Gravis MarketingIVR/online534.6+0.7D+2.5
Remington Research GroupIVR/live324.9+0.8D+2.1
Public Policy PollingIVR/online285.2+1.0D+5.2
University of New HampshireLive198.9+3.4D+8.9
Google SurveysOnline128.4+5.0D+1.8
Negative plus-minus scores are good and indicate that the pollster has had less error than other pollsters in similar types of races.
The “average error” is the difference between the polled result and the actual result for the margin separating the top two finishers in the race.
“Bias” is a pollster’s average statistical bias toward Democratic or Republican candidates. 
The best of these pollsters over this period has been Monmouth University, which has an Advanced Plus-Minus score of -1.5. That’s not a huge surprise — Monmouth was already one of our highest-rated pollsters. After that, the list is somewhat eclectic, including traditional, live-caller pollsters such as Siena College and Marist College, as well as automated pollsters such as Emerson College and Landmark Communications. Polling institutes run by colleges and universities are somewhat overrepresented among the high performers on the list and have generally become a crucial source of polling as other high-quality pollsters have fallen by the wayside.
Data, when applied without bias, is irrefutable.  Let's see how Nate Silver's data shows in 2020.


Sunday, September 2, 2018

Trump's GOP And Ryan Super PAC Malfeasance

Image may contain: one or more people and text

As polling goes, you might recall a few weeks ago Trump's White House Press Secretary openly commented about Trump's support in the black community at 36 percent. It is important to note, the data shows African-American respondents yielded approval at the level of over one-third supporting Trump. My suspicion of the comment was validated when I found which pollster Sanders referenced. Also, note (hypothetically and for sake of making a point) a 36 approval percent response could also mean of the black respondents 2.16 out of 6 approval; if the data is even accurate and honest.

It took less than ten minutes to locate the poll Huckabee Sanders quoted. She quoted Rassmussen. well, that answered that.  Take a look at how Nate Silver's 538 Blog rates Rassmussen on a biased scale

A much more reliable shows Trump approval in the Black community an utter modicum of Rasmussen's results.  The ABC/ Washington Post Poll.  The Week Magzine published a piece with links tot he poll:  poll by The Washington Post and ABC News.

Rassmussen (heavy Red lean) or ABC/Washington Post (Slight Blue lean)? 

But let's move away from polling for a bit. another political dynamic has manifest, and it is utterly disgusting and pathetic.

With polling numbers as shown above, is there any wonder the GOP is resorting to what can only be called underhanded tactics to win elections? The GOP has a history of dirty tricks politics, it has a history of voter suppression, and possibly regarding cases of voter ID fraud on election day than Democrats, but the current news regarding a Paul Ryan linked Super-PAC and the 2018 mid-terms is unbelievable.

What follows is six-plus minutes of a new phenomenon in GOP politics.

DC Tribune dot org and The Super-Pac malfeasance.

Friday, October 27, 2017

Polls, Polls, Polls....Trump Devolves

As Trump devolves, or, if you prefer, dissolves into a public opinion abyss, we think it is time to catch up on the extent of the decent.

First, a reminder of the man, his psyche and his embarrassing reality.

Let's start our review with a poll from the GOP and Trump's communication and propaganda outlet: Fox News.

Overall, the poll shows continued approval slippage among poll respondents. A critical consideration of the poll results is the respondent group probably includes people who voted from Trump.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 1,005 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from October 22-24, 2017.

The image above doesn't is stark but pales when compared against a trend review of Trump's approval/disapproval over a period of time. Herewith is a copy of the trend cut from a full Fox News Poll report pdf file.

Fox News Editors are quick to attribute Trump's most recent poll results to our summer storms. The excerpt above seems to poke a hole in that result assessment.

Morning Consult Poll

The poll surveyed 1,988 registered voters and from Oct. 19 to 23 — at the height of the controversy over Trump’s phone call to Myeshia Johnson and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points

Majorities say Trump is ‘reckless,’ not ‘honest’

Does ___ apply to Trump?YesNo
Strong leader39%50%
Too liberal12%67%
Too conservative26%52%
Keeps his promises34%50%
Cares about people like me34%53%
The Hill

 The latest Harvard-Harris survey

The Harvard-Harris Poll online survey of 2,159 registered voters was conducted between Oct. 14 and Oct. 18. The partisan breakdown is 36 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, 28 percent independent and 4 percent other.

The Harvard–Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

The Military Times also reports on survey results among a respondent group of active military. StumbleUpon