The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts

Sunday, September 2, 2018

Trump's GOP And Ryan Super PAC Malfeasance

Image may contain: one or more people and text

As polling goes, you might recall a few weeks ago Trump's White House Press Secretary openly commented about Trump's support in the black community at 36 percent. It is important to note, the data shows African-American respondents yielded approval at the level of over one-third supporting Trump. My suspicion of the comment was validated when I found which pollster Sanders referenced. Also, note (hypothetically and for sake of making a point) a 36 approval percent response could also mean of the black respondents 2.16 out of 6 approval; if the data is even accurate and honest.

It took less than ten minutes to locate the poll Huckabee Sanders quoted. She quoted Rassmussen. well, that answered that.  Take a look at how Nate Silver's 538 Blog rates Rassmussen on a biased scale

A much more reliable shows Trump approval in the Black community an utter modicum of Rasmussen's results.  The ABC/ Washington Post Poll.  The Week Magzine published a piece with links tot he poll:  poll by The Washington Post and ABC News.

Rassmussen (heavy Red lean) or ABC/Washington Post (Slight Blue lean)? 

But let's move away from polling for a bit. another political dynamic has manifest, and it is utterly disgusting and pathetic.

With polling numbers as shown above, is there any wonder the GOP is resorting to what can only be called underhanded tactics to win elections? The GOP has a history of dirty tricks politics, it has a history of voter suppression, and possibly regarding cases of voter ID fraud on election day than Democrats, but the current news regarding a Paul Ryan linked Super-PAC and the 2018 mid-terms is unbelievable.

What follows is six-plus minutes of a new phenomenon in GOP politics.

DC Tribune dot org and The Super-Pac malfeasance.

Friday, October 27, 2017

Polls, Polls, Polls....Trump Devolves

As Trump devolves, or, if you prefer, dissolves into a public opinion abyss, we think it is time to catch up on the extent of the decent.

First, a reminder of the man, his psyche and his embarrassing reality.

Let's start our review with a poll from the GOP and Trump's communication and propaganda outlet: Fox News.

Overall, the poll shows continued approval slippage among poll respondents. A critical consideration of the poll results is the respondent group probably includes people who voted from Trump.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 1,005 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from October 22-24, 2017.

The image above doesn't is stark but pales when compared against a trend review of Trump's approval/disapproval over a period of time. Herewith is a copy of the trend cut from a full Fox News Poll report pdf file.

Fox News Editors are quick to attribute Trump's most recent poll results to our summer storms. The excerpt above seems to poke a hole in that result assessment.

Morning Consult Poll

The poll surveyed 1,988 registered voters and from Oct. 19 to 23 — at the height of the controversy over Trump’s phone call to Myeshia Johnson and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points

Majorities say Trump is ‘reckless,’ not ‘honest’

Does ___ apply to Trump?YesNo
Strong leader39%50%
Too liberal12%67%
Too conservative26%52%
Keeps his promises34%50%
Cares about people like me34%53%
The Hill

 The latest Harvard-Harris survey

The Harvard-Harris Poll online survey of 2,159 registered voters was conducted between Oct. 14 and Oct. 18. The partisan breakdown is 36 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, 28 percent independent and 4 percent other.

The Harvard–Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

The Military Times also reports on survey results among a respondent group of active military. StumbleUpon

Monday, April 17, 2017

Trump Branding Approval Ratings And Gallup Update

Polls, Polls, and more polls.

While Survey/Monkey and Rassmussen have Trump's approval rating moderately over 40%, and McClatcthy/Marist and Gallup have published results at 39 to 40% approval, we feel it worthwhile to post a video with Chuck Todd's running through a few key public perception rating data.  

The uniqueness of the BNC polling is in polling focus on the Trump brand.
Respondents were asked three separate questions: 
  1. Would you be more likely to use a product endorsed by President Trump?
  1. Would you be less likely to use a product endorsed by President Trump?
  1. Would you actively boycott a product endorsed by President Trump?

We offer the link to the Todd segment while closing with a few graphics from the piece.

Isn't it amazing how the graphics parallel the following graphic:

And we wonder why we have so much partisanship in the US Congress.

UPDATE: Since publishing this piece earlier today, we ran across a recent release from Gallup
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's image among Americans as someone who keeps his promises has faded in the first two months of his presidency, falling from 62% in February to 45%. The public is also less likely to see him as a "strong and decisive leader," as someone who "can bring about the changes this country needs" or as "honest and trustworthy."
Trump Loses Ground on Key Characteristics
Percentage who think each of the following applies to Donald Trump
Feb 1-5Apr 5-9Change
%%pct. pts.
Keeps his promises6245-17
Is a strong and decisive leader5952-7
Can bring about changes this country needs5346-7
Is honest and trustworthy4236-6
Cares about the needs of people like you4642-4
Can manage the government effectively4441-3

Over the past two months, Trump's ratings have declined at least marginally on all six characteristics that Gallup measured in its April 5-9 poll. The percentages saying he cares about the needs of people like themselves and that he can manage the government effectively slipped three to four percentage points, but the changes are not statistically significant.


Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Trump: Polls, Polls, And More Polls

Image result for trump polls approval

Recently CNN brought together a small focus group of Trump supporters I believe this group was part of a much larger focus group well prior to election night.  I wouldn't view much past the first 3:17 minutes. My major reason for posting the segment was to capture the Trump term "grade" signs flashed from each Trump sycophant. 

CNN NewsDay

If you need any additional validation of the sycophant Trump worshipper, you will not find deeper sycophants. The members of the focus group are oblivious to real information related to Trump, his promises, his lies, his demeanor, his affect and his performance in the Oval Office. Fortunately, there are Americans who are paying attention and I think it safe to assert many are experiencing a high level of post-election dissonance. 

From March 24th through March 30th, Quinnipiac conducted a national survey: 

While the weekly "Q" Poll shows a definite downward trending regarding the Trump's approval rating, let's take a look at a few sets of polling data via today's Morning Joe Show.

An Administration and an Elected President who fails to grab any confidence among the population. Historically low numbers for the Presidency less than 100 days.

More Quinnipiac for those with deep interest.

March 24, 2017 - American Voters Want To Save Big Bird, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Most Oppose Spending Cuts In Trump Budget

April 4, 2017 - Trump Slump Continues As He Drops Below Obama, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Republicans In Congress Drop To More Than 3-1 Negative

While Trump and company are bursting with governing incompetence, how about a couple of anecdotal examples of why the man just isn't properly suited for government leadership. 

Did millions fall for what should have been clear and unmistaken campaign lies? Is it possible millions watched and listened to Fox News and other right-wing fake news? How about voters unleashing their deep rooted hatred (or dislike if you prefer) of President Obama? While many may not wish to accept another reality, the reality is real. How about a rise of white nationalism and resistance against any political party or social movement which attracts African-American (and to some extent Latino) voters?   

We offer an anecdotal example of desperate voters driven by social change and accompanied by nonvoters in the millions and gullible third-party. 

Yes, and the lies flowed like the Mississippi River.

Politifact published a piece the week before the Trump Inauguration with a theme that actually nails Trumpism.
"We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning, you’re going to come to me and go ‘Please, please, we can’t win anymore.’ … You’ll say ‘Please, Mr. President, we beg you sir, we don’t want to win anymore. It’s too much. It’s not fair to everybody else,’ " Trump said in Montana last May. "And I’m going to say ‘I’m sorry, but we’re going to keep winning, winning, winning. We’re going to make America great again.’ "
The pitch worked.......Can Trump deliver?
Since January 20th, 2017, Politifact has performed analysis of over 300 Trump statements. The noted fact-checker shows a review results graphic which clearly skewers to the "FALSE" and the "PANTS ON FIRE."  

Here is another classic example of a total lack of credibility. In 2015 Trump sat on camera with his buddy (serial sexual harasser Bill O'Reilly) and poked fun at Obama's State Dinner hosting of the President of China.

It should be noted the President of China is visiting rump this weekend at Mar-A-Lago (at a cost of well over $3 million (dollar) hit against the Federal Budget). It goes well beyond hypocrisy.

Yet, the statements of a pathological liar are different from campaign promises based on the existential reality promises can be tangibly reviewed and assessed. The Washington Post has started campaign promises running a review of 60 Trump campaign promises.  

Trump Promise Tracker

Updated Mar. 29

It’s day 76 of the Trump administration with 1,385 days left in his term. We’re tracking the progress of 60 pledges he made during his campaign — and whether he achieved his goals.
Trump promise status totals
Promises kept6
Promises broken3
Not yet rated37
What do these ratings mean?
Promise keptTrump mostly or completely achieved his stated goal
Promise brokenTrump failed to achieved his goal, through inaction or congressional or legal obstacles
LaunchedTrump has taken action, such as proposing a bill or issuing an order, toward achieving this promise
StuckTrump has taken action, but Congress or the courts have put up roadblocks
CompromiseTrump did not achieve his goal, but accepted a deal that partially achieved his promise
Not yet ratedNo action has yet been taken
Is there any wonder Trump's poll numbers are as low as the belly of a common Garter Snake?


Monday, February 20, 2017

Presidential Polling: Trump Headed South

Image result for polls polls and polls

Poll numbers anyone?  Do you Trump's most spoken word as he rolled over his sad cadre of GOP opponents: "polls." He hasn't mentioned the "polls" since assume the Oval Office. And, actually, his poll numbers are slipping badly.

Last week Public Policy Polling (PPP)  published piece regarding the first three weeks of Trump in the White House. The findings were stark and revealing. Of more significance, the polling data (without specificity) has to include results from people who voted for Trump.

Americans Now Evenly Divided on Impeaching Trump
PPP's new national poll finds that Donald Trump's popularity as President has declined precipitously just over the last two weeks. On our first poll of his Presidency voters were evenly divided on Trump, with 44% approving of him and 44% also disapproving. Now his approval rating is 43%, while his disapproval has gone all the way up to 53%. If voters could choose they'd rather have both Barack Obama (52/44) or Hillary Clinton (49/45) instead of Trump. 
Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6. Read more, here.
Gallup also performed its standard weekly review of presidential polling. The numbers looked equally bleak. Gallup also performs a running review of approval ratings for past presidents. Trump is also losing that review

Why are the pool numbers as such? The answer isn't clear, but a couple of points are irrefutable. First, the numbers indicate a significant number of Trump voters have (albeit temporarily) soured on their reality show entertainer.  It makes one wonder if Nielsen shouldn't run a month to month review of American viewing of Trump. The nation's 45th President also has scored a number of geopolitical FUBARs since taking office: cabinet nominees, the failed mission in Yemen, and frequent weekend jaunts to his Florida mansion.  We shouldn't, however, overlook day to day fact checking which has yet to lean in his favor. One other damaging factor: a set of public presstitutes who couldn't effectively represent the Pope. 

Image result for conway and spicer

In addition to notable cases of ineptitude in political governance, Trump has managed some really horrific decision on the nation. His go ahead on the failed Yemen Seal mission offered insight into his decision-making. Reports are President Obama did not authorize the mission on several occasions based on discomfort with the prospect of a successful mission. Trumps go ahead resulted in the death of two Americans (one a Navy Seal). The failed mission also was reported to have resulted in the death of 30 plus citizen non-combatants.

Take a look at how modern US Presidents have polled in Mid-February after taking office in late January.

Image may contain: 4 people

Can the nation actually wait to see if the nation's 45th President actually possess any competency at running the free world? Or, will we settle for four years of entertainment while the GOP takes the nation back to the 1940s and Trump deploys thousands of our kids and grand kids to the Middle East?

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

ELECTION DAY Quick Hits: Does Trump Ever Stop? Polls, Polls, Polls

Unless you are at work reading this, there is no time spent more important than getting to the voting polling places.  We suggest you take the following messages and images with you.




Meanwhile, back at the ranch...Trump going out with one final racial slur. 
— Keith Boykin (@keithboykin) 


Life long Republican says "no" to Trump and says she will vote for Hillary Clinton.


Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Polls, Polls, Polls (Often Wrong And Poorly Administered)

"This post was first published on"

Why Horserace Polls Are Bad for Democracy


Monday, June 17, 2013

Polls, Polls, Polls And The Lead-Up To Republicans Do Not Like Republicans

Gallup, Rasmussen, and Silver Poll Reliability 2012: Image by Mike DeHaan
Nate Silver hits on the mark with 0.0; Rasmussen and Gallup well another story.

Poll, polls, polls...... 

We are going to post the following chart in our future polling reports. Points of reference are important and US polling drop many balls in 2012.

If you are like me an may any attention to new stories, we are inundated with pololing results.  A couple of very notable blunders by Gallup and Rasmussen in 2012, induces a bit of reticence in reporting polling results.  Gallup recently published results indicating George W. Bush had climbed to "positive image" ratings at the level of 49% vs. 46% "negative image" ratings.  Gallup reported the following poll demographics:
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 1-4, 2013, with a random sample of 1,529 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
All 50 states?  Is the American public that fickle and forgiving?  So, we will post that graphic for perspective on US polling. As you can see above the vast majority of research/polling authorities missed the mark. Some missed the mark by not very much, but a miss is a miss.  

Public Policy Polling has recently published poll results indicating even Republicans have grown weary of their own party.  In fairness, we should reported the context of the poll appears to relate to gun legislation. As you know the GOP ignored 91% of voters who want background checks for gun purchase. The GOP voted to the congressional member to not place the measure up for a vote. 


Read more: The Business Insider