The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label Rachel Maddow BLOG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rachel Maddow BLOG. Show all posts

Friday, October 6, 2017

September Job Numbers






Image result for trump the marionetteer
Did you fall for his?
According to MSNBC's Steve Benen, American Presidents receive a preliminary peep at moth to month job numbers just before the numbers are published n the first Friday of each month. It seems the nation's 45th President received that peep on yesterday and responded in typical Trump manner. He attempted to get out ahead of the poor jobs report by posting a tweet about the US stock market performance.
Positive spins aren't  the sole domain of Trump. All and every president did or would do same. In fairness, the US stock market is continuing its stellar performance.

The numbers, however, mark the end of consecutive months of jobs growth attributable to the Obama administration; 72 consecutive months of Jobs growth between late 2010 and 2016. Since the Trump administration hasn't initiated any economic policy measures, the Obama should receive due credit for handing over an economy which continues to boom. Well, boom" until September 2017.

The following chart is an excerpt from the Rachel Maddow Blog (link)  and complied from Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Jobs data. We should also point out the unemployment rate lowered to 4.2 percent.



Democrat Party consultant also tweeted regarding the September Jobs Numbers. Boykin post points related to Trump's first major monthly jobs flop, and the inevitable comparison to Obama's jobs performance. One other factor, Boykin is thoughtful enough to also make the point that Obama also administered an economy through a national crisis, including Hurricane Sandy.

Keith Boykin‏
@keithboykin 4h


US job growth in the first 9 months of:

2011: 1.53m 
2012: 1.62m 
2013: 1.79m
2017: 1.33m
2014: 2.20m 
2015: 1.88m 
2016: 1.79m
#JobsReport




Neither Benen nor Boykin can accurate address the "whys" of the job losses. However, Benen makes a fair cases that despite viewing the data from various perspectives the job losses fell well short of expectations.

The Trump tweet regarding continued significant stock market growth  doesn't adequately masked the reality of what could be a real danger sign for the US economy.


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Sunday, May 15, 2016

Unemployment Has Gone UP Under Obama? Some Believe The Hype

Take a moment to review a chart published by Steven Benen for the Rachel Maddow blog. The chart was delivered from the results of a recent Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey. The survey results show major differences in respondent perceptions of a critical aspect of the US Economy: unemployment and jobs. 

The PPP survey delineates the sad state of conservative information dissemination or conservative manipulation of large swaths of the US population.  

The-persistence-the-reality-gap-matters
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (excerpts)


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 11, 2016 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

There continues to be a lot of misinformation about what has happened during Obama's time in office. 43% of voters think the unemployment rate has increased while Obama has been President, to only 49% who correctly recognize that it has decreased. And 32% of voters think the stock market has gone down during the Obama administration, to only 52% who correctly recognize that it has gone up. In both cases Democrats and independents are correct in their understanding of how things have changed since Obama became President, but Republicans claim by a 64/27 spread that unemployment has increased and by a 57/27 spread that the stock market has gone down. “It’s a fact that unemployment has gone down and the stock market has gone up during the Obama administration,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But GOP voters treat these things more as issues of opinion than issues of fact.”

Q2 Do you think the unemployment rate has increased or decreased since Barack Obama became President? 
43% The unemployment rate has increased since Barack Obama became President
49% The unemployment rate has decreased since Barack Obama became President
 9% Not sure



How is it possible so may have no idea the full measure and scope of an economy that has added 15 million (rounded) jobs? Are so busy seeking television giggles and following reality TV shows or singing contest shows, we live oblivious to that which is critical to our lives?  Are survey respondents who declared as republican getting their news from outlets such as Fox News and Am radio? 

Conservative media and conservative politicians have performed as masters of deceit in salting the minds of millions with the dire state of the US. It seems, however, either more non-conservatives are paying attention to conservative media (and the GOP) or millions upon millions are busying themselves with superfluous lifestyles, we can not sit for a moment to absorb tidbits of current events and news. As bad as US media has become, there are moments of factual information dissemination if you are a non-Fox News viewer. Yet the current political season shows overwhelming evidence of nitty hammer like behavior across the political spectrum.

The PPP poll also reports survey respondent  demographics which are troubling, to put it mildly. (see survey methodology and demographic data below). 

-78% of voters nationally support increasing the minimum wage to at least $10 an hour, and 49% support going to at least $12 an hour. Only 10% think the current minimum wage
is fine, and another 10% think there should be no minimum wage at all. 95% of Democrats, 69% of independents, and 61% of Republicans support a hike at least to $10 an hour.
Q3 Do you think the stock market has gone up or down since Barack Obama became President? 
52% The stock market has gone up since Barack Obama became President
32% The stock market has gone down since Barack Obama became President
16% Not sure

 -83% of voters nationally support background checks on all gun sales, to just 12% who are opposed. There's very broad bipartisan support for that with Democrats (89/9), Republicans (79/14), and independents (78/14) all overwhelmingly in favor of it, -68% of voters support the EPA Clean Power Plan to 26% who are opposed. That includes 65/29 support from pivotal independent voters.
Q9 Do you support or oppose requiring a criminal background check of every person who wants to buy a firearm?
83% Support a criminal background check for everyone who wants to buy a firearm
12% Oppose a criminal background check for everyone who wants to buy a firearm
 5%  
 Not sure
Survey methodology and demographic questions.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,222 registered voters from May 6th to 9th. The margin of error is +/-3.2%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel. 

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?  
Very liberal..............................................  14%  
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 21%  
Moderate  ..................................................................29%  
Somewhat conservative  .................................21% 
Very conservative  .....................................15%

The bell-shaped distribution of the sociopolitical makeup of the sampling is representative of a fair application of the survey tool. 
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman 53% Man 47% . 
Again a representative sample which fairly portrays national gender demographics.  
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. 
Democrat 43% ........................................................  
Republican 36% ......................................................   
21% Independent / Other........................................  
Herein lies what I refer to as troubling. Only just over a third of the sampling indicates Republican. Even if we consider the prospect of a few "crafty" respondents who would declare themselves IND. knowing full-well they are Republicans, we may still find approximately one-third of the pool offering the PPP findings.
Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. . If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.  
Hispanic 10% ..........................................................  
White 70% ..............................................................  
African American 12% .............................................  
Other 8% 

Another fair distribution considering current US population racial breakdowns.


How is it possible so many supposed progressive or independents have a little knowledge of the state of US employment?  The answer may lie in the same cesspool that has Trump atop the GOP presidential race. Basically, people are self-dumbing themselves into a dangerous state.



While the US economy is not rolling along like a pending tsunami wave, it is a far better economy than we experienced prior to President Obama. While republicans surely have a greater information void and false beliefs regarding the unemployment figures, overall the PPL survey is disturbing. The survey may show the failings of US cable media in failing to deliver accurate and relevant information vs entertainment segments which dominate with each and every cable news show.

Even more tragic is the prospect many of the 1200 plus respondents may not follow any form of news or currents events or they are influenced by conservative media even in the case of non-conservative respondents. 

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Saturday, January 25, 2014

The RNC Winter Meeting Yields A Peculiar Item


http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/rnc-condemns-nsa-spying-shock-turnaround-0

https://www.eff.org/nsa-spying/timeline

We noticed the RNC completed its winter meetings with a very visible resolution against NSA monitoring.  We find the resolutions strikingly familiar as we consider how the GOP and RNC go about the business of appealing to voters.  

Here is an example of which we speak:
Reicne Preibus, RNC Chair: "(GOP) has to be the happy party. 


Mitt Romney lays on "tan face" for Latino National Event: Univision! 


Paul Ryan after invading (unannounced) a DC soup kitchen just before the 2012 general elections and after Mitt Romney went 47% At the Boca Raton mansions. Lest we forget the kitchen utensils were reported to have been already cleaned and the Ryan camp did not deny the (clean utensils) revelation. One more item.
If you did not catch our point: "The GOP/RNC is about phoniness!"  There is no "happy" in the virtual racially pure party and contrived public exhibitions (one racially manipulative) denote a mindset that does not seem endemic to the Democratic Party. A mindset that reflects on GOP values, ethics and mores` (morays). 

Phoniness established, let's look a bit farther.


The winds of angst and anti-Obama Administration sentiment about NSA monitoring is the driving force behind the RNC/GOP resolutions (talking-points). Despite, the fact millions (liberals, progressives, many conservatives and Independents) poll only 13 points down, the polling numbers give the GOP potential campaign fodder.

If we think in terms of the RNC meandering around for policy and platform issues with clear majority (approval) ratings, where do they go?

Does the RNC pursue....?
  • Gun control
  • Voting rights
  • Women's rights
  • Equal Rights Amendment
  • Climate control
  • Immigration
  • Healthcare reform (Insurance reform)
  • Spending (It is down)
  • Food for the poor, children (SNAP), elderly, and low income active military
  • US Economy
  • The Stock Market
  • Commitment to Jobs
The RNC/GOP simply has few issues on which to hang their regressive hats. Benghazi simply will not work as a political item. 

While the Winter Meeting yielded more than one policy issue, we are posting the text of the NSA Resolution.
                                                              
"We believe in life!"  We find Priebus as shallow as a tadpole pool. People without jobs and people on SNAP programs deserve life sustaining food and nourishment.  We posit Preibus spoke to his base and does so without an once of substance.  


The full text of the resolution is below: 
RESOLUTION TO RENOUNCE THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY’S SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM
WHEREAS
, the secret surveillance program called PRISM targets, among other things, the surveillance of communications of U.S. citizens on a vast scale and monitors searching habits of virtually every American on the internet;
 
WHEREAS, this dragnet program is, as far as we know, the largest surveillance effort ever launched by a democratic government against its own citizens, consisting of the mass acquisition of Americans’ call details encompassing all wireless and landline subscribers of the country’s three largest phone companies*; 
WHEREAS, every time an American citizen makes a phone call, the NSA gets a record of the location, the number called, the time of the call and the length of the conversation; all of which are an invasion into the personal lives of American citizens that violates the right of free speech and association afforded by the First Amendment of the United States Constitution; 
WHEREAS, the mass collection and retention of personal data is in itself contrary to the right of privacy protected by the Fourth Amendment of the United States Constitution, which guarantees the right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects against unreasonable searches and seizures, that warrants shall issue only upon probable cause, and generally prevents the American government from issuing modern-day writs of assistance; 
WHEREAS, unwarranted government surveillance is an intrusion on basic human rights that threatens the very foundations of a democratic society and this program represents a gross infringement of the freedom of association and the right to privacy and goes far beyond even the permissive limits set by the Patriot Act; and 
WHEREAS, Republican House Representative Jim Sensenbrenner, an author of the Patriot Act and Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee at the time of Section 215’s passage, called the Section 215 surveillance program “an abuse of that law,” writing that, “based on the scope of the released order, both the administration and the FISA (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act) court are relying on an unbounded interpretation of the act that Congress never intended;” therefore be it
RESOLVED, the Republican National Committee encourages Republican lawmakers to enact legislation to amend Section 215 of the USA PATRIOT Act, the state secrets privilege, and the FISA Amendments Act to make it clear that blanket surveillance of the Internet activity, phone records and correspondence – electronic, physical, and otherwise - of any person residing in the U.S. is prohibited by law and that violations can be reviewed in adversarial proceedings before a public court;
RESOLVED, the Republican National Committee encourages Republican law makers to call for a special committee to investigate, report, and reveal to the public the extent of this domestic spying and the committee should create specific recommendations for legal and regulatory reform to end unconstitutional surveillance as well as hold accountable those public officials who are found to be responsible for this unconstitutional surveillance; and 
RESOLVED, the Republican National Committee calls upon Republican lawmakers to immediately take action to halt current unconstitutional surveillance programs and provide a full public accounting of the NSA’s data collection programs.
*AT&T has 107.3 million wireless customers and 31.2 million landline customers.
Verizon has 98.9 million wireless customers and 22.2 million landline customers while Sprint has 55 million customers in total.”


We believe the systemically hawkish GOP/RNC's reach for restricting a monitoring program developed and honed during the Bush years a political grab for the "proverbial straw."

The following is a timeline of, and for, NSA Monitoring. As I reviewed the timeline, it was impossible to avoided thoughts of why monitoring has metastasized into the national issue, after running unrestricted for many years. What is it about 2013 and Edward Snowden's espionage brought the issue to national prominence? 


We at the TPI are not active in NSA monitoring derangement. Yet we feel the NSA needs mission direction and a degree of restraint. Restraint that will not reduce NSA's mission to that of complete ineffectiveness. 


It is obvious US technological ingenuity and acumen have given the nation an edge in electronic warfare. National defense unfortunately includes knowing what your 
adversaries are doing and in some cases knowing what the suspicious non-adversaries are doing. Do you recall the Us has imprisoned am American convicted of spying for Israel:  

Jonathan Pollard.    



As I often stated, I am much more alarmed and disgusted by
innocent internet tracking for commerce and hacking such 
as that focused on Targets and other retailers, than an NSA
employee scrubbing though my Internet activity and phone

activity.


As stated the RNC/GOP needs issues that garner the attention of the public. They have little, and as history indicates they will attempt to leverage the issue though the 2014 mid-term elections.

Let's take a journey through the history of NSA Meta-data collection.

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NSA Spying

Timeline of NSA Domestic Spying

All of the evidence found in this timeline can also be found in the Summary of Evidence we submitted to the court in Jewel v. National Security Agency (NSA). It is intended to recall all the credible accounts and information of the NSA's domestic spying program found in the media, congressional testimony, books, and court actions. The timeline also includes documents leaked by the Guardian in June 2013 that confirmed the domestic spying by the NSA. The documents range from a Top Secret Court Order by the secret court overseeing the spying, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISA Court), to a working draft of an NSA Inspector General report detailing the history of the program. The "NSA Inspectors General Reports" tab consists of one of three documents: a July 10, 2009 report written by Inspectors General of the Department of Justice (DOJ), NSA, Department of Defense (DOD), Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; an internal working draft NSA Inspector General report leaked by the Guardian on June 27, 2013; and, an "End to End Review" of the Section 215 program conducted by the NSA for the FISA Court. For a short description of the people involved in the spying you can look at our Profiles page, which includes many of the key characters from the NSA Domestic Spying program.

More after the break below
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Friday, February 22, 2013

Obama: Data, Information, Leadership And The Right Side Of Issues


 

"No war is won without effective INTEL." The Pardu


"If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles."
Sun Tzu , The Art of War (Read more) 


Do you think the Obama Administration knows the value of public preferences, inclinations and likes/dislikes (e.g., public opinion)? 

Do you think President Obama and his staff are 'dim-witted' enough to simply wing-it on issues, or more seriously not know, or ignore,  public opinion?

Remember, this is the Administration that eliminated Osama bin Laden to close a strategy-based plan ordered,  "to his (Obama's) desk within 90 days of his Inauguration".  Your answer to the questions above should be a resounding, "No and No."

Since Obama's first inauguration, we have witnessed, almost without fail, decision making that has moved the nation forward.  And, that decision-making has been undertaken, executed and analyzed for effectiveness  despite major obstruction from Republicans and the nation's conservatives.

During the 2013 SOTU Speech, President Obama threw the nation a curve ball unanticipated by all, but his inner staff.  



The president actually proposed a Minimum Wage of $9.00 per hour; an increase to the federally required minimum by $1.75 per hour.  Did you notice in the video above, as soon as Obama spoke of CEO pay, Boehner took that ever-present GOP 'perfunctory' and often fake sip of water?  We assume Boehner's sip was H2O. The Minimum Wage speaking point, surprised the nation.  We feel that Boehner's timely sip (?) was all he could do to provide moisture for what must have been a Richter Scale sphincter contraction and the largest of 2013. Actually, we suspect a major sphincter attack via the 291 Republicans in the 113th congress; we could only observe Boehner. Of course, you and I noticed no Republicans stood nor dared applaud at the mention of the $9.00 per hour Minimum Wage.  Sphincter attack?

"Raise the Minimum Wage?"

Do you think Obama knew the win-win of raising the Minimum wage?  Win one, polling data indicating wide support for upping the Minimum Wage.  Win two, past history of support for raising the rate and the fact raising the rate doe snot kill jobs. 

Rachel Maddow Blog (Steve Benen) Pew Research Poll

Huffington Post: Minimum Wage public opinion


Minimum Wage aside, the Obama Team is aware of public polling for contraception, for gun control, and against changes to Medicare/Social Security. Lawrence O'Donnell, The Last Word, is reporting on a new poll that (on certain issues) shows the majority of Republicans support President Obama.  The Administration is as good as its ability to seek and assimilate information and its cache of information is good.

The following is a bit detailed, but relevant in understanding the significance of a competent president who is smart enough to use data and public opinion to advance a fair and advance agenda.  Information is critical as we consider the basic serious need for a President, Commander-in-Chief, and Leader who can competently manage a vast management team including supportive and committed software engineers as well as polling professionals in the information trenches. 

Let's go back and explore how the Obama Team uses data and public opinion for 21st Century decision-making and politicking. 
______________________

Within weeks of the November 2012 General Elections a number of articles about campaign backroom technology, software geeks, Information/polling specialists and voting system hacking popped-up like white "high-end (aged)" Baby Boomers at early Tea Party rallies.  

As I perused many of mid-November 2012 articles, I was a bit surprised at the true extent of polling effectiveness or the opposite ineffectiveness.  As Rasmussen, NPR, Gallup TrackingABC/WAPO, PPP/Daily KOS & SEIU, Gallup Tracking  and few other polls completely missed the mark. The "other polls" link shows comprehensive poll data is much more representative of 2012 election results.  

Other articles explored the business of electoral college predictions.  Two noted examples included the highly effective Nate Silver (Obama 313; Romney 225) and the completely blown-out (allegedly accurate since 1980) Colorado University professors Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver (Romney 320; Obama 218).  Even Nate Silver blew a state! Neither public voter polling or electoral college predictor truly represented the backroom battles of what I call "deep voter" polling.

Of the articles read in Mid-November, none intrigued as much as Obama's Narwhal Team.

techteam.jpg
Three of the 40 Narwhal Engineers. 
harperhug.jpg
The President hugging Harper Reed as shown on his Instagram feed.

Out of the 2008 election, very smart Obama campaign staffers realized an abundance of voter related data deserved serious attention and deeper scrutiny. (Details linked via  article 
Narwhal Team link above)Karl Rove (Romney's) ORCA system was literally gored by the Obama Team's (Narwhal).


Arstechnica.com  article Link
The Horror of a Loss!

The NARWHAL Team contributed battle winning support for the Obama Campaign.  Conversely, Romney's campaign (the ramble keystone cops) and Rove's ORCA system failed in its mission with a specific failure (crash) the evening of November 6th, while we awaited Ohio poll results.

The Hacktivist group Anonymous has taken credit for allegedly crashing the Rove ORCA.  It is impossible to verify the Anonymous claim, as all things hacking has a cover of secrecy. We do know the Rove's ORCA crashed the evening of November, 6th.

The NARWHAL system and team was vital to and effective in contributing to an Obama Campaign (Axelrod, Cutter, et al)  level of confidence that became clear as election results came-in and electoral votes declared.  The "ground game" technology system yielded a landslide victory.  


We have no way of knowing if the NARWHAL Team was disbanded or still contributes to the president's decision-making data resources.  What we do know is the Obama Administration is rarely, if ever, on the wrong-side of polling majorities. 

Conversely, Mitt Romney campaigned on electing someone who has run a business.  Hell, did the man even effectively run a two year campaign  His campaign did absolutely nothing right throughout the entirety of 2007/2008.

Additional resource: 
Communitiesdominate  (ORCA Vs. NARWHAL direct comparison and analyst)
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Monday, July 2, 2012

Newt Gingrich Bows!!!!!!!





Cultural mores trumps political rhetoric even for Gingrich

I am certain Gingrich will speak of preparing to rub a pet dog. He may even claim dog poop on his shoe. He will not want to discuss something the Right has leveled against President Obama since his first visit with an international leader when the bow is an expected custom and a mores (mor reys). Of course, Newt will say he only criticized Obama for 'apologizing" around the world. the bow 'hits', he would claim, came for mothers.  Sure Newt!


A shot across Gingrich's bow

By Steve Benen  
  -  
  
The right's preoccupation with bowing in recent years has been a little annoying. When Eisenhower bowed to foreign leaders it wasn't important; when H.W. Bush bowed to foreign leaders no one cared; but when Obama greeted Japanese Emperor Akihito with a customary bow, the right went berserk.

Newt Gingrich, in particular, harped on this for years, talking on the campaign trail about how "tired" he is of the president "bowing" on the international stage. I couldn't help but notice, then, that Gingrich was in Paris last week, where he met the Maryam Rajavi, the France-based leader of MEK, a controversial Iranian opposition group. 

When Gingrich approached Rajavi, he bowed. (I'm not clear on why; as best as I can tell, bowing is not an Iranian custom.) 

I posted this image -- Gingrich was not, in context, admiring her shoes -- but you can click on it to see the whole video.

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Saturday, April 7, 2012

ALEC via The Rachel Maddow Blog (Steve Benen)


Ever wonder how legislation like the "Stand Your Ground' Laws get signed into law?   Blame it on ALEC, The American Legislation Exchange Council.  Would you like to know the names of a couple of major financial supporters to ALEC: David and Charles Koch. 

You might want to read a bit from the Rachel Maddow BLOG.  As one who has written about ALEC since the inception of this web page, I will defer to Maddow's Blog for now.  I plan to work on additional material about ALEC, over the next few hours or days.

The  Rachel Maddow BLOG.






ALEC loses its anonymity 
         Fri Apr 6, 2012 10:25 AM EDT
Most political organizations crave the spotlight. A higher profile generally means more influence, more power, and more contributions from donors. Groups on the left and right, from the NRA to MoveOn.org, want to be household names because it maximizes their ability to have an impact.
The group that preferred the shadows is getting the spotlight.
But there are exceptions. The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) has traditionally been anonymous, working behind the scenes to advance a far-right agenda far from the public spotlight -- which was always the intended plan. Shadowy obscurity allowed ALEC to be more effective and made it easier for lawmakers to follow the group's lead without controversy.
Read More

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