The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label The Iran Deal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Iran Deal. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

US Senate Republicans Continues Fights Against Iran Deal

The US Senate Republicans Are Mounting another attack on the Iran Deal?

The AP is reporting yet another attempt by Senate Republicans to kill the Iran/multi-national nuclear deal.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republicans will try a second time on Tuesday to move ahead on a resolution rejecting the Iran nuclear deal, and the outcome is expected to be the same: Democrats are poised to block the measure and preserve President Barack Obama's foreign policy win....
.....Republicans are also working to craft new sanctions legislation to maintain a hardline stance against Iran. Looking to next year's elections, Republican campaign committees also have targeted Democrats who backed the deal and some organizations against the deal already have threatened to withdraw political contributions from members of Congress who backed it.

Blocking the Four Pathways to a Nuclear Weapon

Building a nuclear bomb requires either uranium or plutonium. But thanks to this deal, Iran’s four possible ways to leverage those fissile materials are blocked.

The Uranium pathways at Natanz and Fordow 
Iran would need two key elements to construct a uranium bomb: tens of thousands of centrifuges and enough highly enriched uranium to produce enough material to construct a uranium bomb. 

There are currently two uranium enrichment facilities in the country: the Natanz facility and the Fordow facility.

Let’s take a look at Iran’s uranium stockpile first. Currently, Iran has a uranium stockpile to create 8 to ten nuclear bombs.

But thanks to this nuclear deal, Iran must reduce its stockpile of uranium by 98%, and will keep its level of uranium enrichment at 3.67% — significantly below the enrichment level needed to create a bomb. 

Iran also needs tens of thousands of centrifuges to create highly enriched uranium for a bomb. Right now, Iran has nearly 20,000 centrifuges between their Natanz and Fordow facilities. But under this deal, Iran must reduce its centrifuges to 6,104 for the next ten years. No enrichment will be allowed at the Fordow facility at all, and the only centrifuges Iran will be allowed to use are their oldest and least efficient models.

In short, here’s the difference this historic deal will make:

The Plutonium pathway at the Arak reactor 
The third way Iran could build a nuclear weapon is by using weapons-grade plutonium. The only site where Iran could accomplish this is the Arak reactor, a heavy-water nuclear reactor. Right now, this reactor could be used in a weapons program, but under this deal, the Arak reactor will be redesigned so it cannot produce any weapons-grade plutonium. And all the spent fuel rods (which could also be source material for weapons-grade plutonium) will be sent out of the country as long as this reactor exists. What’s more, Iran will not be able to build a single heavy-water reactor for at least 15 years. That means, because of this deal, Iran will no longer have a source for weapons-grade plutonium.
A covert pathway to building a secret nuclear program
The previous three pathways occur at facilities that Iran has declared. But what if they try to build a nuclear program in secret? That’s why this deal is so important. Under the new nuclear deal, Iran has committed to extraordinary and robust monitoring, verification, and inspection. International inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will not only be continuously monitoring every element of Iran’s declared nuclear program, but they will also be verifying that no fissile material is covertly carted off to a secret location to build a bomb. And if IAEA inspectors become aware of a suspicious location, Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol to their IAEA Safeguards Agreement, which will allow inspectors to access and inspect any site they deem suspicious. Such suspicions can be triggered by holes in the ground that could be uranium mines, intelligence reports, unexplained purchases, or isotope alarms. 

Basically, from the minute materials that could be used for a weapon comes out of the ground to the minute it is shipped out of the country, the IAEA will have eyes on it and anywhere Iran could try and take it:
What Program Iran’s Nuclear Would Look Like Without This Deal 
As it stands today, Iran has a large stockpile of enriched uranium and nearly 20,000 centrifuges, enough to create 8 to 10 bombs. If Iran decided to rush to make a bomb without the deal in place, it would take them 2 to 3 months until they had enough weapon-ready uranium (or highly enriched uranium) to build their first nuclear weapon. Left unchecked, that stockpile and that number of centrifuges would grow exponentially, practically guaranteeing that Iran could create a bomb and create one quickly – if it so chose.

This deal removes the key elements needed to create a bomb and prolongs Iran’s breakout time from 2-3 months to 1 year or more if Iran broke its commitments. Importantly, Iran won’t garner any new sanctions relief until the IAEA confirms that Iran has followed through with its end of the deal. And should Iran violate any aspect of this deal, the U.N., U.S., and E.U. can snap the sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy back into place.
Here’s what Iran has committed to:
Under the framework for an Iran nuclear deal Iran's uranium enrichment pathway to a weapon will be shut down

It is also critical to understand the world does not agree with the GOP and many American conservatives.

What the World is Saying about the Iran Deal

Nuclear physicists, military officials, non-proliferation experts, and more than 100 countries across the globe have all voiced their support for the Iran nuclear deal because it is the best solution available to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon without taking military action. Explore below to see what they’re saying:


Friday, July 31, 2015

The Iran Deal, The Push Poll And Conservative Political Operatives

Have ever been the victim of a "push pull?"  "Victim?"  Yes, your telephone rings, you answer,  you hear the name of an organization (the name sips by quickly without registering in your grey matter, the caller mentions the word "survey"; instant excitement. You have waited years for an opportunity to tale arty in a "political survey." 

Push Poll     Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia                                                A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of voters under the guise of conducting a poll.

If WIKI doesn't work for you, try a more descriptive and real world definition from Dictionary Dot Com.

Push Poll     Dictionary Dot Com                          noun 1. a seemingly unbiased telephone survey that is actually conducted by supporters of a particular candidate and disseminates negative information about an opponent.   

Let's solidify your knowledge push polling with information from the American Association for Public Opinion Research, AAPOR.

Push Poll     Dictionary Dot Com                          A “Push Poll” is not a Legitimate Poll
A so-called "push poll" is an insidious form of negative campaigning, disguised as a political poll. “Push polls” are not surveys at all, but rather unethical political telemarketing -- telephone calls disguised as research that aim to persuade large numbers of voters and affect election outcomes, rather than measure opinions. This misuse of the survey method exploits the trust people have in research organizations and violates the AAPOR Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.

My experience with a "Push Poll."

In 2010, the call came-in as stated above. The year was a non-General Election year (a key point). The caller started the call with what appeared as innocuous inquiries about state politics. After a brief period of maneuvering around about state issues, the caller moved to a question regarding support for the Democrat governor and how I felt about certain positions. OK, a hint, but still overcome with excitement about the forum and the developing survey, I was oblivious. The timing of the survey was within a month of a major rail car oil spill and fire on the West Coast. Questions ensued regarding the safety of oil derivatives and rail transport. Of course, the brain connected more with the derailment flames and damage, instead of ...take a guess? Oil derivatives vs. pipeline. Pipeline. pipeline. Keystone XL popped into the brain like a tsunami. I had bitten on the push poll like an ungamely catfish: no sport at all.

I received the ultimate validation of a conservative poll taker when the survey taker went here: "Are you inclined to vote Democrat or Republican in this year's general election." The moment hit like a ten foot surf off Hawaii's North shore! There wasn't a General Election in the year of the survey, the General was over a year off.  Bam!  I informed the caller there was no General Election in the year of the call: silence from the caller. 

The remainder of the survey was accomplished with total consciousnesses of its origin, methodology and purpose. I was being used to provide talking point data for the coming political season and conservative issues like the KXL project. As the call came to a close, I asked the caller to alert her supervisors that the question about the "General Election" should be reviewed for veracity and authenticity. I offered the suggestion knowing, my time had been spent in a classic push poll.

If you have followed the news of late, right-wing media is reporting survey results claiming majority opposition to the Iran nuclear deal. The survey was conducted by Secure America Now (SAN) and Pat Caddell's Caddell Associates. "Secure America Now" (SAN)? (If any survey taker identified as working for "secure American Now" I suspect my cognitive antennas would have gone full erection, and led to abstention from participation.)

Media Matters has published a piece on the survey and Right wing utility of the tool. 

We have embed the lede paragraph from the piece, If the lede doesn't wet your palate, you should consider checking your political sanity, you could be susceptible to Judas goat activity from GOP operatives.
Media are citing a flawed poll claiming majority opposition to the Iran nuclear deal conducted by Secure America Now (SAN) and Pat Caddell's Caddell Associates, without acknowledging that it contains a misleading question that falsely equates the Iran deal to the failed nuclear agreement with the North Korea agreement. Experts have explained that the Iran deal and North Korea agreement are vastly different, and SAN and Caddell have a history of advocacy polling and shady conservative advocacy campaigns.
A Conservative group essentially used a push poll - and mainstream outlets haven't noticed.Posted by Media Matters for America on Thursday, July 30, 2015