The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label The Obama economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Obama economy. Show all posts

Saturday, August 18, 2018

Trumpism: Fox News, Trump Propaganda, And The Obama Economy

A lie is a statement used intentionally for the purpose of deception.[1][2] The practice of communicating lies is called lying, and a person who communicates a lie may be termed a liar. Lies may be employed to serve a variety of instrumental, interpersonal, or psychological functions for the individuals who use them. Generally, the term "lie" carries a negative connotation, and depending on the context a person who communicates a lie may be subject to social, legal, religious, or criminal sanctions. 
I believe what follows isn't the first time the Fox News morning dweeb (in blue) has issues statements which are flat-out ignorant. While we realize the Trump's favorite morning TV fare is Fox & Friends, We must (at the risk of appearing disrespectful) express a lack of surprise of what follows. Listen carefully for a few seconds at the host in blue mentions "communist" Japan in World War II.

Let's move from Fox News to the object of their stumbling lying and propaganda.

If Trump only realized how utterly pathetic he appears via his beloved TV (monitors) 

Witch Hunt?

Fake, Fake, Fake...News

We offer this link as you consider the business of Trump's Fake News. (4,229 lies in less than two full years in the Oval Office.) 

Salting a jury and hinting at pardon for Manafort

A message to the Jury and a message to Manafort

He is a good person..... 
18 counts of the total 32 counts in the February 2018 superseding indictment 
including five counts of subscribing to false U.S. income tax returns from 2010 to 2014,  
four counts of failing to file reports of foreign accounts from 2011 to 2014,  
five counts of bank fraud conspiracy, and 

four counts of bank fraud.

A case of propaganda killing from CNN's Chris Cuomo. we have issues with Cuomo at times, but it is good to see a CNN prime time evening host devote a few minutes to stepping on Trump propaganda and carnival ticket sales.

Trump and his talking head pundits frequently stating their positive impact on the "great US economy.  Well, yes the US economy, in some sectors is doing quite well; in other sectors not so well.  The carnival ticket sellers also work to convince you of the influence of the Trump/Ryan (Ayn Rand) Wealthy tax cut.  Cuomo also addressed that fallacy lie. 

If you have come this far in the piece, you have just run through a cauldron of Trumpism.

Friday, December 30, 2016

The Obama Economy 2009 - 2016

Image result for 44th president of united states

As President Obama prepares to leave the US Presidency, we want to offer a tribute to economic policy which contributed to this (as of one week ago). 

No automatic alt text available.

The Dow Industrial Average will hit 20,000 before President Obama leaves office.

Let's not forget ObamaCare

While most avoid long reads, the following information from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities (CPBB) offers a detailed review of the US economy from early 2009 (when Obama took office) through early December 2016. If you consider yourself an informed voter, you really should peruse the information from the CPBB.

"This material was created by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (” 

Chart Book: The Legacy of the Great Recession

DECEMBER 7, 2016

The United States went through its longest, and by most measures worst economic recession since the Great Depression between December 2007 and June 2009. This chart book documents the course of the economy following that recession against the background of how deep a hole the recession created – and how much deeper that hole would have been without the financial stabilization and fiscal stimulus policies enacted in late 2008 and early 2009.

Part I: Recovery Began in June 2009
The Economy Began Growing in Mid-2009

Economic activity as measured by real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) was contracting sharply when policymakers enacted the financial stabilization bill (TARP) and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The economy began growing in 2009, and has averaged 2.1 percent annual growth since then.

Employers Have Added Nearly 200,000 Jobs a Month Since Early 2010

The pace of monthly job losses slowed dramatically soon after President Obama and Congress enacted the Recovery Act in February 2009. The trend in job growth in 2010 was obscured by the rapid ramp-up and subsequent decline in government hiring for the 2010 Census, but private employers have added 15.6 million jobs to their payrolls in the 81 months of sustained growth since February 2010, an average of 193,000 jobs a month. Total employment (private plus government) has averaged 190,000 a month over that period, as federal, state, and especially local government were net job losers. In November, private employers added 156,000 jobs. Federal government employment increased by 3,000, state employment by 5,000, and local government by 14,000, contributing to a gain in total nonfarm employment of 178,000 jobs. 

Part II: The Recession Put the Economy in a Deep Hole
GDP Fell Far Below What the Economy Was Capable of Producing

In the third quarter of 2016, the demand for goods and services (actual GDP) was roughly $278 billion (about 1.5 percent) less than what the economy was capable of supplying (potential GDP). This output gap, which is manifested in excess unemployment and underemployment and idle productive capacity among businesses, is the legacy of the Great Recession. Congressional Budget Office projections show the gap closing over the next few years as actual GDP grows somewhat faster than potential GDP.

GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2016 and was 1.6 percent higher than in the same quarter a year ago. The latter figure is lower than the 2.1 percent average annual growth since the start of the recovery, which has been insufficient to close the output gap. 

In its August 2016 Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook, CBO revised down slightly its estimates for the level of potential GDP, which it now projects will grow at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent from 2016 to 2026. Growth faster than that is necessary to close the output gap further. The faster actual GDP grows, the faster the output gap will be eliminated and full employment restored.

Job Losses Were Unprecedented

Employers began to add jobs in 2010. Progress erasing the jobs deficit was slow for some time, but the economy has now recovered the 8.7 million jobs lost between the start of the recession in December 2007 and early 2010 and continued to add jobs since. Nonfarm payroll employment was 4.9 percent (6.7 million) higher in November 2016 than it was at the start of the recession.

Surpassing the pre-recession peak was a milestone on the way to a full jobs recovery, but population growth over the past several years means the potential labor force is larger than it was then. Job creation has averaged 188,000 a month over the past 12 months, and 176,000 over the past three months. Those rates are above what’s required to keep up with potential labor force growth (the pace of job creation that’s appropriate once the economy is back to full health).

The Unemployment Rate Rose to Near Its Postwar High...

The unemployment rate rose far higher than in the previous two recessions and far faster than (though not quite as high as) in the deep 1981-82 recession. Technically, the recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009 as the economy began growing again, but the unemployment rate did not fall to 5.0 percent, where it was at the start of the recession, until late 2015. Apart from a dip to 4.7 percent in May, the unemployment rate had been in the 4.9 to 5.0 percent range since then, before dropping to 4.6 percent in November. 

...And Stayed High Long After the End of the Recession

The relatively modest pace of job growth in the first years of the recovery kept the unemployment rate high long after the end of the recession. This is similar to what happened in the previous two recessions, and does not resemble the fairly rapid decline that followed the severe 1981-82 recession. While the unemployment rate is much lower now than it was early in the recovery, other indicators like those discussed below suggest there is still "slack" (people who are not working but want to be or people who would like to be working full time but can only find part-time jobs) in the labor market.

The Share of the Population with a Job Fell to Levels Not Seen Since the Mid-1980s

The sharp rise in the unemployment rate and discouragement over the prospects of finding a job caused a decline in the percentage of the population in the labor force (those either working or looking for work). As a result of rising unemployment and declining labor force participation, the percentage of the population with a job fell sharply in the recession and stayed low through much of the recovery. It began to move up in 2014 and 2015 as falling unemployment offset still-falling labor force participation. In November, the labor force participation rate was 62.7 percent, 0.1 percentage point below its average for the first ten months of the year; the employment-to-population ratio was 59.7, the same as its average over the previous ten months. 

Long-Term Unemployment Rose to Historic Highs

Long term unemployment reached much higher levels and persisted much longer in the Great Recession and subsequent jobs slump than in any previous period in data that go back to the late 1940s. The worst previous episode was in the early 1980s, when the long-term unemployment share peaked at 26.0 percent and the long-term unemployment rate peaked at 2.6 percent. Moreover, in the earlier episode, a year after peaking at 2.6 percent, the long-term unemployment rate had dropped to 1.4 percent. It took six years from the end of the Great Recession to reach that rate, which it did last June. That rate has changed little since and was 1.2 percent in November. About a quarter (24.8 percent) of the 7.4 million people who were unemployed — 1.9 million people — had been looking for work for 27 weeks or longer. 

Labor Market Slack Reached a Record High

The Labor Department's most comprehensive alternative unemployment rate measure — which includes people who want to work but are discouraged from looking and people working part time because they can't find full-time jobs — recorded its highest reading on record in November 2009 in data that go back to 1994. In November 2016, this rate was 9.3 percent, still above its pre-recession level.

Growth in Workers Earnings Has Been Modest, but Starting to Pick Up

Average hourly earnings of employees on private payrolls grew modestly through much of the recovery, and to date have averaged 2.1 percent annually. Inflation has been modest as well, but over the course of the economic recovery, real (inflation-adjusted) wages have hardly grown and have failed to keep up with increases in workers' productivity (output produced per hour of work). As a result, the share of national income going to profits has increased relative to that going to wages.

Both inflation and productivity have fluctuated more than nominal earnings during this period, but, on average, productivity has risen at a little less than 1 percent per year since the end of the recession and the cost of a typical worker’s market basket has risen about 1½ percent per year over the same period.

Things have improved recently. In November, average hourly earnings of all employees on private payrolls were 2.5 percent higher than a year earlier. With inflation temporarily very low, that represents a significant real wage gain; strong nominal wage growth will be required to maintain such gains if inflation begins to rise.

The Number of People Looking for Work Swelled Compared with the Number of Job Openings

At one point at the beginning of the recovery there were 7 people looking for work for every job opening. That ratio has declined substantially but probably has room to fall further in an improving labor market (it was close to 1 to 1 just before the 2001 recession). In October 2016, 7.8 million workers were unemployed, compared with 5.5 million job openings (a ratio of 14 job seekers for every 10 job openings). If labor markets continue to tighten, employers are likely to fill open positions more quickly, further reducing the number of job seekers relative to the number of job openings.

Part III: The Great Recession Would Have Been Even Worse without Financial Stabilization and Fiscal Stimulus Policies

GDP Would Have Been Lower Without the Recovery Act...

The Recovery Act was designed to boost the demand for goods and services above what it otherwise would be in order to preserve jobs in the recession and create them in the recovery. The Congressional Budget Office finds that GDP has been higher each year since 2009 than it would have been without the Recovery Act (with the largest impact in 2010 when GDP was between 0.7 and 4.1 percent higher than it otherwise would have been). The impact diminished, as expected, as the economy recovered, but CBO estimates that even at the end of 2012 GDP was between 0.1 and 0.6 percent larger than it would have been without the Recovery Act.

...And Unemployment Would Have Been Higher

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that because of the Recovery Act, the unemployment rate has been lower each year since 2009 than it otherwise would have been. The maximum effect was in 2010, but CBO estimates that even in the fourth quarter of 2012 the unemployment rate was 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points lower than it otherwise would have been and employment was between 0.1 million and 0.8 million jobs greater than it otherwise would have been.

Unemployment Rate

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Debate Night And The Undiscussed

......Via Comeback Decade

Comeback Decade

America's Comeback Decade

Thursday, September 4, 2014

An Economic Update And Inferred Comparison To GOP Economic Policy

Love this moniker
We from time to time post information related to the US economy. Towards the third week of August we posted this piece (virtually all graphs and charts): linked. Charts and graphs and reflection on the extent to which the GOP has abandoned any mention of the US economy.

Today was a good day to great a few US economy charts from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
The St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) 
An economic update through late August 2014

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items

Real Gross Domestic Product, 3 Decimal

2014:Q2: 15,994.256 Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars

Industrial Production Index

2014-07: 104.3882 Index 2007=100 

 Civilian Unemployment Rate

2014-07: 6.2 Percent 

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims

2014-08-30: 302,750 Number 
All Employees: Total nonfarm

2014-07: 139,004 Thousands of Persons
Updated: 2014-08-01

Real Gross Domestic Product

2014:Q2: 15,994.3 Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars
Updated: 2014-08-28

 St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index©

2014-08-29: -1.320 Index 
Updated: 2014-09-04 8:59 AM CDT  to

Market Watch published a piece that joins this work like an expensive glove: linked StumbleUpon

Friday, October 26, 2012

The Economy Game! Obama, Romney and False Mantra

The polls are becoming scary, if one places faith in the polls and if one is discerning in viewing and believing polls. I will admit to being a poll watcher. While I long to be a poll survey respondent, I have yet to be asked to participate in the polling process. Romney is gaining in the polls, yet Obama appears as illusive and slippery as Barry Sanders of the old Detroit Lions.   

Poll spreads are closing as Romney has closed the some gaps. The positive movement for Romney is possibly attributable to a poor Obama performance in the first debate through the attack on the Libyan consulate.  I suppose the respective meaning of each is a possible lack of focus by Obama (debate)  and poor security measures form the Administration (Ambassador and staff killings).  In either case the arguments are ridiculous and without  any modicum of merit   I posit Obama fell victim to better preparation and a Mitt Romney lying so very much and completely disregarding any semblance of respect for the debate process.  Romney told major lies about his tax plan, about tax breaks for off-shoring jobs and lies about various issues.   As to the matter of Benghazi.  A cover-up as manufactured by the Romney Camp is as ridiculous as the stumbling effort by George Bush and Cheney to lead in capturing and killing Osama bin Laden.  

There has to be other factors in closing poll numbers, and I can assure you it is not the economy consider the economy via credible data Vs. GOP mantra and Fox News propaganda. "Obama's failed economy"!   Let's look at Obama's failed economy.   

The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is an indicator designed to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. Global consumer confidence is not measured. Country by country analysis indicates huge variance around the globe. In an interconnected global economy, tracking international consumer confidence is a lead indicator of economic trends.[1]

In the United States consumer confidence is issued monthly by The Conference Board, an independent economic research organization, and is based on 5,000 households. Such measurement is indicative of consumption component level of the gross domestic productThe Federal Reserve looks at the CCI when determining interest rate changes, and it also affects stock market prices.

US News Money January 2012.  Major Economic Indicators for Year 2012. are some of the major scorecard items that we'll be watching as the year unfolds. We have listed their 2011 performance, based on year-end results and the latest reports on key indicators.
Major Economic Indicators

Economic indicators have been updated to reflect 2012 data. where possible the data have been posted through September 2012.  Some indicators are monthly indicators and are flagged accordingly.  We chose to use calendar year 2010 for expediency, to facilitate available page space,  and to capture recovery data after the Obama Stimulus had been distributed (at least for the most part). All categories linked to source data pages and posted from 2010 (bottom of cell) through 2012 (top of cell).

Unemployment Rate Gross Domestic ProductConsumer Price Index
 7.8% 09/2012
2.0 Q3 2012231 - 09/2012 up 2.0% to date
  9.1% 09/20111.8 Q3 2011225 - 2011 up 3.0% over 2010
  9.6% 09/20102.5 Q3 2010218 - 2010 up 1.5% over 2009

Other economic indicator data HERE

The Obama economy appears on par for a recovery from abysmal depths of the Great Recession.  I think it truly tragic the nation is willing to again gamble with Romney/Ryan as they return to Reaganomics (Trickle-down economics).  It is almost unbelievable people to do see the significance of having called the right shots on the 2009 economy by the Obama Team.  The fact that data indicate women are moving towards Romney and the GOP, is almost frightening  as it is easy to predict the unrest that will ensue should Romney/Ryan Sununu and company takeover the White House.   Will America actually turn on the prospect of a healthcare system that will cover the 45 to 45 million people who previously had not medical coverage?  I guess not enough people have experienced being denied medical coverage due to a previous medical condition, and they must accept the emergency room as a viable medical care delivery option. If poll gaps are narrowing, people are saying, we do not care about GOP longstanding desire to cripple and kill entitlement programs that help the nation's elderly via the comfort of medical care and income. The same is the case with aid to dependent children!  Children should not suffer at the hands of an insensitive and non-caring political party and the millions who fervently subscribe to its doctrine.

There was a time in US history when a political party that completely ignored our veterans and failed to mention our troops (those who died and those who return from war) at a national convention would surely have dropped in the polls.  I guess I have seen a turn in the US that is deleterious in the log run and totally self-centered int he short run.

But, the economy is not factually an Obama weakness! Recovery is slow, but the risk of reversal of progress since 2009 is horrifying. We have to remember Romney/Ryan will not have an artificially fueled (sub-prime lending and toxic asset) economy for a few years of prosperity.