The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label White vote. Show all posts
Showing posts with label White vote. Show all posts

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Polls, Polls, And More Polling Data

Image result for TRUMP

On A busy Sunday morning, there is little time to devote to promulgating information. We thought a set of Trump approval rating graphics would tide you over for a few hours.

Chuck Todd's, Meet The Press, and early morning Trump.

Trump low marks for first 100 days: NBC News/WSJ poll

While NBC is reporting on Trump as the worse president in modern times, we wouldn;t be fair if we did not mention Trump is doing very well in one category on the poll. It seems Americans love the dropping of bombs and explosive ordinance. Trump has a 62% approval rating among the respondent group when asked their opinion of Trump's Syrian fireworks display over and across and empty airport. 

The following set of graphics is not meant as a form of snark. The data shows we are heading down a path which gave us George W. Bush and an international crisis (when coupled with poor banking decisions from the Clinton administration). 

Graphic derived from New York Times Exit Polling Data 

Image result for who voted for trump by race New York Times

We do asset it is impossible to view the previous two graphics without contemplation of a couple of points. Non-whites vote moderately fewer than whites and whites seems to vote very much down the lines of social voting. Republican economic data is well published as a reliable flop after a period of good fortune. People who avoid such data while keeping their eyes and ears open to GOP political mantra (nationalism, militarism and in the case of 2016, celebrity worship) doom us to reliving our past. The current president, his cabal, and the GOP are so very administratively deranged, we may not escape the next Republican national abyss.


Sunday, November 11, 2012

Polls, Polls, and Exit Polls..A GOP LOST And The Double Entendre!

The Bill O'Reilly "Non-traditional" vote! 
The chart should include the white vote, for a more comprehensive illustration of the GOP Loss.

This man is a multi-millionaire and he subscribes to Mitt Romney's 47% (50% for O'Reilly) overt bigotry and misunderstanding of American life.

It is really not a stretch to see why the GOP embroils year after year in political campaigns and politics that more closely align with white America. The party makes the miscalculation despite the fact that the invisible trend line in the chart just below clearly shows the nation's demographics are changing.

A quick visit with Chuck Todd on Meet The Press

What went wrong?   Todd suggest pure demographics and a GOP failure to embrace tolerances of Latinos (and implied other minorities).  Yes, part of the problem  Todd, should also spend a few minutes in discussion of the GOP's "Shock and Awe" against women.  How about Mitt Romney's campaign website with no outreach link to African-Americans. Well, yes he was not going to secure even a moderate number of African-American votes, but how much effort and cost was associated with placement of a link (even a perfunctory link)?

Charts are linked to original source.

Chart Linked to Source
Data sources: New York Times and CNN.

Race and the 2012 Election, Henry Wolff, American Renaissance, November 9, 2012
The white vote
At the polls, 59 percent of whites supported Mr. Romney, a rate no presidential candidate has matched since 1988. In fact, Mr. Romney is the first presidential candidate in US history to receive so high a share of the white vote and still lose the election.

From 2008 to 2012, Mr. Obama’s share of the white vote dropped from 43 percent to 39 percent, resulting in a 20-point gap between him and Mr. Romney. The decrease was especially sharp among white men, 41 percent of whom supported Mr. Obama in 2008, but just 35 percent in 2012—a drop of 6 percent. Mr. Obama’s vote share among white women dropped less, from 46 percent to 42 percent.

Whites in the South overwhelmingly supported Mr. Romney, especially in Mississippi (89 percent of white voters chose him) and Alabama (84 percent). Northern whites leaned more toward Mr. Obama, with majorities voting for him in Vermont (66 percent of white voters), Massachusetts (57 percent), Maine (57 percent), New Hampshire (51 percent), and Connecticut (51 percent). Demographic data was not available for Rhode Island (whites probably voted for Mr. Obama) or Delaware (whites voted for George Bush in 2004, but for Mr. Obama in 2008).

Outside the North, the only white electorates to prefer Mr. Obama were Oregon (54 percent), Washington (53 percent), Iowa (51 percent), Washington, DC (no 2012 data), and Hawaii (no 2012 data).

The Asian vote
One big—and largely neglected—story of the 2012 election is the shift in the Asian vote. If the current exit-polling data are accurate, Asians voted for Mr. Obama at an even higher rate than Hispanics: 73 percent versus 71 percent. There has been a steadily growing Asian majority voting Democrat: 55 percent in 2004, 63 percent in 2008, and now 73 percent. However, until this year they lagged Hispanics by 4 to 5 percentage points. Why are Asians now the second-most reliable Obama supporters after blacks? We have no good answer.
The chart below shows the stark racial divide in this presidential election:
Data sources: New York Times and CNN.

Of course, when the vote splits like this along racial lines, it is always the white candidate who failed to do enough to win minority votes. For years that has been the refrain about Hispanics, and now Republicans will no doubt be told they have to do more to win over Asians. Needless to say, when the black candidate loses millions of white votes from one election to the next, there is no soul-searching about how to appeal to whites. The whites who abandoned Mr. Obama can just be written off as “racists.”

The Economist Votes and prayers, Nov 8th 2012, 16:49 by
How the presidential vote split along religious linesIN THE aftermath of Barack Obama's victory, much analysis has focused on how the president's appeal to minorities, women and college students trumped Mitt Romney's edge among white Americans. Split the vote by religious affiliation and the story is similar. Exit polling data analysed by the Pew Research Centre shows that Mr Obama, the one Protestant on the ballot (Mr Romney is a Mormon, Joe Biden and Paul Ryan are both Catholics), lost the battle for Protestants, America's largest religious group. But he picked up enough votes among America's Catholics, Jews, atheists and the rest to come out on top. Mr Romney won white evangelical voters by a whopping 60-point margin. One lesson the next Republican candidate might take from this is that, since such voters are unlikely to switch to the Democrats, the party should spend less time trying to placate them. 

The religious vote

I always love to see just how religious exit poll data shuck-out.  Obama certainly loss ground with just about all faiths (from 2008), but the losses had little to no impact on the out of the election.

It is also no surprise O'Reilly and his cohorts on Fox News, will never speak of their role in duping 48% of US voters. 
The GOP/Romney success, and it was a popular vote squeaker  is primarily the responsibility of....
  • Fox Propaganda and Public Relations Network (AKA Fox News)
  • Right-wing "nut case" Radio
  • The Money Grabber Karl Rove
  • GOP Gerrymandering and redistricting statewide districts and 
  • Polling  by the likes of Gallup, AP/GfK and Rassmussen 

If you never ever review poll data, you have to give a look at the AP/GfK Poll data released just a few days before the November 6th Elections. The poll's major tickler was, a"Majority Harbor Prejudice towards blacks".   [See Link above]

We should also never underestimate the impact of GOP use of the "southern-strategy" and bodes poorly of social America as it says, this nation is very much immersed in issue of race and intolerance.