The Pardu

The Pardu
Watchful eyes and ears feed the brain, thus nourishing the brain cells.
Showing posts with label Your GOP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Your GOP. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

As Trump's World Turns: Bill Maher, Trump's Veracity Void And White Nationalism

We only rarely post Bill Maher on this page.  A few Maher segments have drawn our interest and seem share worthy.

Now, lets move to a more serious set of comments: Trump's motherlode tweeter attack and his denial of growing white supremacy.

CNN broadcast a segment a few days ago regarding Trump's mother lode of weekend tweets. apparently, 45 spent the entire weekend watching Fox News (and other media) tweeting with every zany thought while fully loaded with lies and manipulative fantasy. Rollingstone dot com took a shot at Trump's 50 tweets; sad to put it mildly.  

Veracity isn't a word of conception which is ingrained in Trump's character.

Chris Cillizza took to the CNN set graphics board and ran through a few lies and misstatements (AKA "falsehoods"). At one point in the three minutes segment Cillizza offered wrong numbers regarding his former employer assessment of  Trump lies. He stated the number of lies for the president (according to the Washington Post) has reached 8,000 lies since taking office. He state such while admitting he just returned from vacation. It appears his vacation time lead to a misstatement in the area of missing one thousand lies.  Washington Post headline and lined piece. On the 773rd day of his term in office, Trump's "lying scale" has reach 9,014. After this past weekend it appears the number will increase by double digits.

Now for Cillizza...

The Associated Press (AP) fact check of Trump veto signing comments.  The AP link navigates to the full post we have focused on Trump's statements regarding white nationalism as a "small group of people.
TRUMP, when asked if he views white nationalism as a rising threat worldwide: “I don’t really. I think it’s a small group of people that have very, very serious problems. I guess if you look at what happened in New Zealand, perhaps that’s the case. I don’t know enough about it yet. They’re just learning about the person and the people involved. But it’s certainly a terrible thing.” — remarks Friday in Oval Office. 
THE FACTS: Both data and many experts who track violent extremists point to white nationalism as a rising threat in the U.S. and abroad. 
According to data released this month by the New York-based Anti-Defamation League, for instance, white supremacist propaganda efforts nearly tripled last year from 2017. Reports of the propaganda — which can include fliers, stickers, banners and posters that promote hateful ideology — rose 182 percent to 1,187 cases. That’s up from the 421 reported in 2017. 
The number of racist rallies and demonstrations also rose last year, according to the group. At least 91 white supremacist rallies or other public events attended by white supremacists were held in 2018, up from 76 the previous year. 
The Anti-Defamation League in January said domestic extremists killed at least 50 people in the U.S. in 2018, up from 37 in 2017, and noted that “white supremacists were responsible for the great majority of the killings, which is typically the case.” 
Separately, the Southern Poverty Law Center reported the U.S. had more hate groups last year than at any point in at least the past two decades. The organization, which tracks white supremacists and other far-right extremists, said the 1,020 groups it counted in 2018 amounted to the highest number since the center broadened its survey of such groups in the 1990s.
The center said it was the fourth straight year of hate group growth, representing a 30 percent increase roughly coinciding with Trump’s campaign and presidency. That came following three straight years of decline near the end of the Obama administration. 
And the Justice Department reported in November that hate crimes across the U.S. spiked 17 percent in 2017 — marking a rise for the third straight year. There were 7,175 reported hate crimes that year, up from 6,121 in 2016, according to the FBI report. More than half of the crimes were motivated by bias against a person’s race or ethnicity. Anti-Semitic hate crimes increased 37 percent. 
Among the episodes in the last few years: a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017 after which Trump blamed “both sides” for violence, and last October’s shooting at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh in which the gunman accused of killing 11 people allegedly drew inspiration from white nationalism. Authorities last month arrested a Coast Guard lieutenant, an alleged white supremacist who appeared interested in attacking top Democrats and network TV journalists.
End the AP (read more linked above)
“It’s not only a national concern, white supremacy is a global terror threat. There is a link between the white supremacists here in the US, those in Europe and what we’ve now seen in New Zealand,” says Jonathan Greenblatt, CEO and National Director of the Anti-Defamation League.

— CNN Newsroom (@CNNnewsroom) March 18, 2019


Monday, March 18, 2019

As Trump's World Turns: The POLLS?

Marquee Scroll>57 Percent Want A New Leader In The White House

Trump at one time-loved to quote "the polls" or "the ratings".  We haven't heard those words form the nation's 45th President in many months. Every wonder why?

Maybe a recent poll leads us to an answer.

In May 2018 the FiveThirtyEight Blog( Nate Silver) published what follows.

Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018

How prolific pollsters have fared in recent elections
Advanced Plus-Minus scores for pollsters’ surveys conducted for elections on Nov. 8, 2016, and later
Monmouth UniversityLive244.8-1.5D+3.9
Emerson CollegeIVR514.1-1.0D+1.2
Siena CollegeLive184.0-0.9D+1.5
Landmark CommunicationsIVR/online144.4-0.6D+4.3
Marist CollegeLive173.7-0.6D+1.5
Trafalgar GroupIVR/online/live154.0-0.1R+0.8
Opinion SavvyIVR/online114.3+0.1D+2.8
Quinnipiac UniversityLive264.4+0.1D+4.2
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchIVR/online555.1+0.4D+3.6
CNN/Opinion Research Corp.Live104.3+0.6D+1.4
Gravis MarketingIVR/online534.6+0.7D+2.5
Remington Research GroupIVR/live324.9+0.8D+2.1
Public Policy PollingIVR/online285.2+1.0D+5.2
University of New HampshireLive198.9+3.4D+8.9
Google SurveysOnline128.4+5.0D+1.8
Negative plus-minus scores are good and indicate that the pollster has had less error than other pollsters in similar types of races.
The “average error” is the difference between the polled result and the actual result for the margin separating the top two finishers in the race.
“Bias” is a pollster’s average statistical bias toward Democratic or Republican candidates. 
The best of these pollsters over this period has been Monmouth University, which has an Advanced Plus-Minus score of -1.5. That’s not a huge surprise — Monmouth was already one of our highest-rated pollsters. After that, the list is somewhat eclectic, including traditional, live-caller pollsters such as Siena College and Marist College, as well as automated pollsters such as Emerson College and Landmark Communications. Polling institutes run by colleges and universities are somewhat overrepresented among the high performers on the list and have generally become a crucial source of polling as other high-quality pollsters have fallen by the wayside.
Data, when applied without bias, is irrefutable.  Let's see how Nate Silver's data shows in 2020.


Sunday, March 17, 2019

As Trump's World Turns: Trump Pathology And The Ever-present Lie

Related image

On a daily basis, Yahoo Finance posts a set of market indicator graphics at the top of its web page. The indicators are ever present and provide quickly glance or link clickable access to market data (with visuals).

As I pursue the indicators earlier today, a particularly noteworthy visual indicator also appeared. Yahoo Finance channeled the Washington Post in offering an indicator of Trump's lie scale since taking office.

WAPO headline...

Fact Checker  

In 773 days, President
Trump has made 9,014 
false or misleading claims

The Fact Checker’s ongoing database of the false or misleading claims made by President Trump since assuming office.
Washington Post linked here. You really must view the interactive graphic via WAPO.

And, I now have friends and associates who actually challenge my nascent practice of clinking way from news broadcast when the hosts move to issues of Trump (replete with open mount video and weird hand movements).  They often asked me why?  Answer if I will not stand or sit and know a person is lying to me with ever breathe, what is the point on offering the person my eyes, ears and time?